Voters across much of the South are already casting ballots in congressional districts that were redrawn after President Trump called for new maps. He said the changes would help Republicans keep the House, where they now hold a 218-to-214 edge 1.
NPR estimates that over the past year, Republicans in state legislatures tilted about eight more seats their way than Democrats did in response 1. That is an estimate, not a final count.
A bet on 2024 voting habits
Here is the catch. Republicans drew many districts partly on how people voted in the 2024 presidential election. The political mood has since changed, NPR reports, and many who backed Trump two years ago could vote for Democrats or stay home 1.
As a result, Republicans could lose many of the districts they targeted 1. That is NPR's assessment, not a certainty. The votes have not been counted yet.
Texas shows what was at stake. Gov. Greg Abbott signed a map in August that targets five GOP-friendly seats. Texas now has 38 House seats: 25 held by Republicans and 13 by Democrats 2. A three-judge federal panel blocked the map on Nov. 18, but the U.S. Supreme Court later restored it 2.
A chain of political crises
States normally redraw their maps early in each decade, after the census. Trump asked legislatures to do it now, and NPR says that set off a chain reaction of crises across the country 1.
Texas Republicans issued arrest warrants for Democratic legislators who had left the state. Louisiana's governor suspended a primary after thousands of votes were already cast so the lines could be redrawn 1.
In Missouri, the state supreme court found the Republican secretary of state in contempt for sticking with a GOP map that was not legally in effect 1.
Democrats answered, with mixed results
Democrats in California and Virginia won approval in statewide votes for redistricting in response. Courts then threw out Virginia's plan 1. California voters approved their plan in November by a 29-point margin 2.
This spring the Supreme Court weakened the Voting Rights Act, the federal law that protects minority voters. NPR says that fueled rushed legislative sessions to draw maps that often weakened the voting power of minority communities 1.
Not every Republican went along. Legislatures in Indiana and South Carolina rejected Trump's call after dramatic votes 1. NPR says the overall effort was a cycle of mid-decade redistricting unlike any since the 1960s, when courts set the current rules 1.
What happens next
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3. The new maps are in use in this election, so the results will show whether they protect Republicans 1.
That matters because districts drawn on past votes only work if voters behave the same way again. Kareem Crayton of the Brennan Center for Justice, a legal and policy group, has warned that voters will not automatically back a new candidate in a newly drawn district 2.
The pattern is clear. Republicans used their power over the maps to get ahead before a single vote was cast. Whether that head start survives an unhappy electorate is the question voters now answer 1.
The Record
- Texas Gov. Greg Abbott signed a map targeting five GOP-friendly seats (signed in August) 2.
- A three-judge federal panel blocked the Texas map; the Supreme Court later restored it 2.
- NPR reports that voters in redrawn Southern districts are casting ballots, with Republicans leading the House 218 to 214 1.
Sources
- NPR, “Trump's redistricting gave Republicans a head start, now it goes to the voters” (2026-10-22). npr.org/2026/10/22/nx-s1-6004891/trump-redistricting-advanta
- CBS News, “Texas, California redistricting maps” (2026-04-23). cbsnews.com/news/texas-californias-redistricting-maps
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