With fewer than two weeks until the Nov. 3 midterms, President Donald Trump is trying to address high fuel costs. Energy analysts told The Guardian that voters will not see lower prices by Election Day 1.
AAA, the motorists' group, puts the national average for gasoline at $4.29 a gallon. That is more than $1.25 higher than last year. Diesel is $6.30 a gallon, up nearly 75%. Both prices are down only slightly from a month ago 1.
What Trump did
This month Trump announced several diesel measures. One is an executive order that temporarily allows wider use of "red dye" diesel, which is normally reserved for farm and off-road machinery. Another temporarily lifts sanctions on Russian diesel imports. The third is a one-time, $8 billion diesel-fuel subsidy for farmers to help with harvest 1.
The White House says the red-dye change gives a 24.4-cent-per-gallon discount. It says that saves about $60 on a 250-gallon fill-up. The fuel is exempt from federal excise taxes 1. NPR-affiliated reporting says the order runs through the end of the year 2.
Diesel prices for Americans and, indeed, the world, will be COMING DOWN, IN RECORD NUMBERS, AND FAST!
Ed Hirs, an energy fellow at the University of Houston, was asked what impact the moves would have. He said they would have none 1. The Russia deal covers 2.24 million barrels. Andrew Critchlow of Dow Jones Energy says that equals about 14 hours of U.S. diesel demand 1.
Hirs also argued the Russia deal adds no new supply. In his view, Russia now sells that fuel at full value instead of at a discount, which he called a "huge windfall" 1.
Farmers are not impressed
South Dakota farmer Larry Birgen, 65, said the savings matter during harvest. He said they won't cover the price increase 2. Doug Sombke, president of the state Farmers Union, criticized the timing so close to the midterms 2.
I would just call it silly solutions.
Hirs says the red-dye change could backfire. It gives farmers more competition for the same fuel, which he says will raise their prices 1.
Why prices are high and what comes next
Energy prices are higher across the board because of the U.S. war on Iran, which closed the strait of Hormuz. Much of the world's crude oil flows through that waterway 1. Analysts say the only real fixes are reopening the strait and a Russia-Ukraine peace deal 1.
Prices could also rise in winter, especially for heating oil. Analysts warn that more fighting in the Middle East could push them up further 1.
The political risk
A Politico poll taken Oct. 10 found that even if Trump cut gasoline by $1 a gallon, most voters polled would not likely be swayed to vote Republican 1.
Sharie Smith of Toledo, Ohio, says her fill-ups have gone from $30 to $40 up to $50 to $60. She is voting Democratic. "They don't have any idea what people are going through," she said of Republican candidates 1.
That matters because fuel costs reach every household. Diesel moves trucks, and trucks move groceries. Voters who are already stretched by food prices may judge Republicans on what they pay at the pump, not on what is promised 1.
The Record
- A Politico poll found most voters polled would not likely be swayed to vote Republican even if gasoline fell $1 a gallon 1.
- Reporting describes Trump's order letting dyed diesel be used in on-road trucks through year's end 2.
- AAA data cited by The Guardian: gasoline $4.29 a gallon and diesel $6.30 a gallon, both far above 2025 levels 1.
Sources
- The Guardian, “Too little, too late: Trump takes on gas prices as fuel costs hamper his midterm hopes” (2026-10-22). theguardian.com/us-news/2026/oct/22/trump-high-gas-prices-mi
- New Hampshire Public Radio (NPR/SDPB), “Farmers say they'll take the relief of Trump's EO, but they're still hurting” (2026-10-12). nhpr.org/2026-10-12/farmers-say-theyll-take-the-relief-of-tr
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