At a rally in Fort Myers, Florida, on Friday, President Donald Trump said higher energy costs are "a small price to pay" for trying to remove Iran's ability to enrich nuclear fuel. He also promised that oil prices would soon fall sharply 1. He told the crowd to expect "economic success we've never seen before" if Republicans keep the House and Senate on Nov. 3 1.
Two years ago his message was very different. As a candidate in 2024, Trump promised to cut what Americans pay for energy and electricity in half 5. Here is what he said then, what he says now, and what drivers are paying.
Then: "slash prices in half"
At a rally in Asheville, North Carolina, on Aug. 14, 2024, Trump said the country would "commit to the ambitious goal of slashing energy and electricity prices by half — at least" 5. He went further: "We think that your energy bills will be down by 50%-70%" 5.
We intend to slash prices in half within 12 months, at a maximum 18 months
At the Republican National Convention in July 2024, he spoke about high prices under President Joe Biden and said, "People can't live like this" 6. He made a Day 1 promise there as well.
From Channel GOPTrump says he alone decides who gets paidDonald Trump · 135 plays · captioned, with the source named
Starting on Day 1, we will drive down prices and make America affordable again
Now: "a small price to pay"
The U.S. war with Iran began on Feb. 28 6. Since then, the president has kept playing down what it costs at the pump. In March, on his social media site, Truth Social, he called the jump in gas prices "a very small price to pay" 6. In September, at an event in North Carolina, he said, "It's a very inexpensive price to pay for what we've done" 9.
On Oct. 8 he wrote that a "temporary increase in the price of Gasoline is a small price to pay for Iran not having a nuclear weapon" 3. Then on Thursday he offered a new explanation: he accused Iran of faking attacks on ships to drive prices up before the election 2.
Iran is doing everything they can to drive up the price of Oil prior to the U.S. Midterm Election
The report on his post noted that data from Kpler, a ship-tracking firm, showed Middle Eastern oil shipments averaging more than 24 million barrels a day in the week ending Oct. 18. That was above the prewar average of 23.3 million. But those figures include oil that goes around the Strait of Hormuz, so they do not show that traffic through the strait is back to prewar levels 2. Iranian state TV said seven tankers were damaged overnight, four in attacks and three by naval mines 2.
The receipts at the pump
As of Oct. 23, AAA's national average for regular gas was $4.29 a gallon. A year earlier it was $3.07 4. Diesel averaged $6.32, up from $3.63 a year ago, and it hit a record $6.53 in September 4. On Friday, Brent crude, the main world price for oil, briefly went above $117 a barrel 3.
When Trump was sworn in on Jan. 20, 2025, gas averaged $3.11 a gallon 7. PolitiFact worked out that keeping his promise would have meant gas at $1.56 7. By our math, gas today costs about 38% more than on his first day back in office, and nearly three times his target.
Other prices have climbed too. Citing the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Miami Herald reported that gas prices rose 34% in the year to September. Grocery prices are up 4.5% over the last two years, and overall inflation is up 6.8% over the same period 1.
The promise was behind even before the war. In January, PolitiFact rated it "Stalled." Gas had dropped about 11% in his first year, but natural gas was up almost 9% and electricity almost 7% 7. NPR reported at the time that wholesale power prices were up more than 60% in New York and New England 8.
Blaming the last president
Some in the administration blame the past. At a CBS News town hall on Oct. 17, Vice President JD Vance said the biggest reason gas costs so much is that under Biden "we had about 20% of American refining capacity that went offline" 10. PolitiFact rated that False. The 20% loss was in California, not the whole country, and experts said the main cause is higher crude oil prices since the Iran war began 10.
Democrats have been tying fuel prices to the war for months. In March, Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer of New York posted that "Donald Trump's war has sent gas prices skyrocketing through the roof" 6. House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York made the same point on CNBC in April 11.
gas prices have skyrocketed as a direct result of Donald Trump’s reckless war of choice.
That matters because the 2024 promise was specific: half off, within 12 months. The new one is not: oil will fall sharply someday, and better times will come if his party holds Congress 1. Voters can set the two promises side by side, and check the price on any gas station sign, before Nov. 3.
The Record
- At an Asheville, N.C., rally, Trump promises to cut energy and electricity prices in half within 12 months, 18 at most. 5
- Trump is sworn in for a second term with gas averaging $3.11 a gallon. 7
- PolitiFact rates his promise to halve energy prices 'Stalled' as electricity rises almost 7%. 7
- The U.S. war with Iran begins, and fuel prices start climbing. 6
- At a Fort Myers rally, Trump calls higher energy costs 'a small price to pay' as gas averages $4.29 and diesel $6.32. 14
Sources
- Miami Herald (via Yahoo News), “In Fort Myers, Trump touts economic performance despite stubborn inflation” (2026-10-23). yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/fort-myers-trump-touts-econ
- Newsmax Wires (via Yahoo News), “Trump: Iran Faking Attacks to Drive Up Oil Before Nov. 3” (2026-10-22). yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/trump-iran-faking-attacks-d
- HNGN, “Trump Says Iran Is Faking Tanker Hits to Lift Oil Before Midterms” (2026-10-23). hngn.com/articles/273574/20261023/trump-says-iran-faking-tan
- Fox News, “Trump rallies Florida base amid ongoing campaigning blitz 11 days before midterms (live updates)” (2026-10-23). foxnews.com/live-news/midterm-elections-2026-trump-campaigni
- The Daily Wire, “Trump commits to slashing energy prices by half” (2024-08-14). dailywire.com/news/trump-commits-to-slashing-energy-prices-b
- Fox News, “Rising gas prices from Iran conflict put GOP on defense after previous Biden attacks” (2026-03-15). foxnews.com/politics/from-bidens-war-gas-prices-small-price-
- PolitiFact, “MAGA-Meter: Cut energy costs by 50% in first year (Stalled)” (2026-01-20). politifact.com/truth-o-meter/promises/maga-meter-tracking-do
- NPR (via KPBS), “Trump promised to cut energy bills in half. One year later, has he delivered?” (2026-01-20). kpbs.org/news/economy/2026/01/20/trump-promised-to-cut-energ
- AP (via PBS NewsHour), “Rising gas prices frustrate voters. Trump says it's an 'inexpensive price to pay' for the Iran war” (2026-09-21). pbs.org/newshour/politics/rising-gas-prices-frustrate-voters
- PolitiFact, “JD Vance falsely blames Biden for high gas prices, citing refinery capacity” (2026-10-19). politifact.com/factchecks/2026/oct/19/jd-vance/biden-gasolin
- Office of House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries, “Leader Jeffries on Squawk Box: "Gas prices have skyrocketed as a direct result of Donald Trump's reckless war of choice"” (2026-04-15). jeffries.house.gov/2026/04/15/leader-jeffries-on-squawk-box-
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