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Then vs. Now · File No. 261112-372

Trump promised to end inflation on day one. Now he calls it solved as prices keep rising

Trump has told voters that inflation is "solved" and that the numbers are "historically good." The October price report, released two days after his latest interview, showed prices rising faster than forecasters expected. Here is what he promised, what he says now, and what the government's own figures show.

By the Receipts Desk · · 4 min read

Every quote in this story (4) was matched word for word against its source. How we work

My clippings
Donald Trump
Donald Trump. Photo: Daniel Torok, Public domain

On the 2024 campaign trail, Donald Trump made voters a simple promise about prices. At a campaign event in Montana, he said he would end inflation starting on his first day in office 5.

Donald Trump
Starting on Day One, we will end inflation and make America affordable again
Donald Trump, Republican presidential candidate, speaking at a 2024 campaign event in Montana5

Almost two years later, the president says the job is done. In a phone interview with Fox News on Election Day, Nov. 3, Trump said, "The inflation is solved" 2. In a "60 Minutes" interview that aired Nov. 8, he went further 1.

Donald Trump
We have historically good numbers.
Donald Trump, President, Republican1

Two days after that interview, the government's monthly price report showed something different 23.

What the October numbers show

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the government's main measure of what households pay for everyday goods and services. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said Nov. 10 that the index rose 0.4% in October. Economists surveyed by the data firm LSEG had expected 0.3% 3.

From Channel GOPTrump dodges rigged-election question, calls Massie loserDonald Trump · 525 plays · captioned, with the source named

"Core" prices, which leave out food and energy because they swing so much, rose 0.3%. Forecasters had expected 0.2% 3. Food prices overall rose 0.5%, the biggest monthly jump since April. Beef and veal rose 0.9% in October alone 3.

Gasoline rose 1% in October. That came after a 9.1% jump in September 3. The national average was $4.00 a gallon in the week ending Nov. 9. During Joe Biden's final year in office it averaged $3.30 1.

Inflation came in hot in October and it wasn't just gas prices.
Heather Long, Economist, Navy Federal3

This month the government did not publish the usual figure comparing prices with a year earlier. The 2025 government shutdown stopped it from collecting October 2025 prices, so there is nothing to compare against 3. Long estimated the yearly rate at "around 4%," while wages are rising 3.1% 3. Once October's price increases are taken into account, average weekly pay adjusted for inflation did not grow at all last month 2.

Then vs. now: the record

The latest official yearly figure tells the story. In the 12 months before Trump took office in January 2025, consumer prices rose 3.0%. In the 12 months through September 2026, they rose 3.7%, according to FactCheck.org's review of government data 1. The Federal Reserve's preferred price measure was up 3.6% in September. The Fed's target is 2% 1.

Trump has declared victory before. In a January speech in Detroit, he said "Inflation is defeated" 6. At that point, PolitiFact found yearly inflation had dipped only slightly during his first year back, from 3.0% in January 2025 to 2.7% in December 2025 9. FactCheck.org reports it has climbed since then 1.

Fox News has pushed back, too. Fox News anchor Bret Baier told viewers that Trump's claim that he brought inflation down from 19% did not hold up. Baier said the starting figure was "actually closer to 2.4%" and showed a graphic saying prices had risen 3.7% over the past year 8.

The jobs picture does not back up the "historically good" claim either. FactCheck.org counted about 1.03 million jobs added in Trump's first 21 months, compared with 2.61 million in the 21 months before he took office. Unemployment was 4.1% in October, up from 4.0% in January 2025 1.

The Democratic response

Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, the top Democrat on the Senate Banking Committee, put a price tag on the gap between the promise and the results 4.

Elizabeth Warren
Trump promised to lower costs on 'Day One,' but prices have instead climbed 6.3% since December 2024
Elizabeth Warren, U.S. senator and ranking member of the Senate Banking Committee, D-Mass.4

Warren's office says those price increases have cost families "$4,182 on average from inflation alone" 4. She added that "paychecks are shrinking" and that inflation-adjusted wages have fallen 1.1% since the Iran war began 4. Those figures come from her office's own calculations, not from an independent agency.

Why it matters for retirees

Social Security checks will rise 3.6% in January 2027. That is the cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, the yearly raise that is tied to inflation. The Social Security Administration says the average retirement benefit will go up about $75 a month, and nearly 72 million people will get the increase 7.

That matters because the COLA is based on prices from last summer. If Long's estimate of about 4% yearly inflation holds, prices are already running a little ahead of next year's raise 37. The 2027 Medicare Part B premium, which comes out of most beneficiaries' checks, will be posted to online "my Social Security" accounts starting in late November 7.

Higher interest rates may also be coming. Futures markets tracked by CME FedWatch put the odds that the Federal Reserve raises its key rate at its Dec. 8-9 meeting at 87.3% 3. That would help savers with CDs and money market accounts. It would also make car loans, credit card balances and home equity loans more expensive.

The pattern is clear. The promise was to end inflation on day one. The official yearly rate is higher now than when Trump took office 1, and the latest monthly report came in hotter than forecast 3. Only the president's description of it has changed.

The Record

  1. Trump takes office. Consumer prices had risen 3.0% over the previous 12 months 1.
  2. NBC News reports that Trump said in a Detroit speech that "Inflation is defeated" 6.
  3. Social Security announces a 3.6% cost-of-living increase for 2027, after official yearly inflation hit 3.7% in September 71.
  4. On Election Day, Trump tells Fox News, "The inflation is solved" 2.
  5. October price report shows the CPI up 0.4%, more than forecast, with food up 0.5% 3.
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Sources

  1. FactCheck.org, “FactChecking Trump's Post-Election '60 Minutes' Interview” (2026-11-10). factcheck.org/2026/11/factchecking-trumps-post-election-60-m
  2. MS NOW (MaddowBlog), “Consumer prices continue to climb, despite Trump's claims about having 'solved' inflation” (2026-11-10). ms.now/rachel-maddow-show/maddowblog/cpi-economy-inflation-c
  3. Fox Business, “Consumer inflation rises faster than expected in October, CPI report shows” (2026-11-10). foxbusiness.com/economy/cpi-inflation-october-2026.amp
  4. U.S. Senate Banking Committee (Minority), “Senator Warren Statement on October 2026 CPI and Updated Trumpflation Tracker Data” (2026-11-10). banking.senate.gov/newsroom/minority/senator-warren-statemen
  5. Washington Examiner, “Trump administration tries to control the inflation narrative” (2025-07-25). washingtonexaminer.com/?p=3474580
  6. NBC News, “Trump touts an economic boom as Americans worry about prices” (2026-01-13). nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-economic-boom-americ
  7. Social Security Administration, “Social Security Announces 3.6 Percent Benefit Increase for 2027” (2026-10-14). content.govdelivery.com/accounts/USSSA/bulletins/42e75c3
  8. AL.com via Yahoo News, “Fox News anchor in pointed fact-check on wild Trump claim” (2026-11-10). yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/fox-news-anchor-pointed-fac
  9. PolitiFact, “Inflation after one year under Trump: Prices continue to rise, but some key items are cheaper” (2026-01-20). politifact.com/article/2026/jan/20/trump-inflation-one-year-

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