A correction to the premise first. The newest poll does not show President Donald Trump's approval turning negative among rural voters. It shows him back at 50 percent approval among rural voters in the likely electorate, one point above water, in an Echelon Insights poll taken October 15 to 19 1.
That is a sharp rebound. In September, Echelon found rural approval at just 40 percent, with 59 percent disapproving. October's 50-to-49 reading is a 20-point improvement in net approval in one month 1.
Newsweek cautions against reading too much into it. Rural subgroups are small, so their numbers swing more, and a one-point edge is too narrow to show opinion has decisively changed 1.
The wider electorate is still unfavorable
Among all voters in the Echelon poll, 39 percent approve of Trump and 60 percent disapprove. Democrats lead the generic congressional ballot by five points 1. The poll surveyed 1,010 likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 points 1.
From Channel GOPPeltola: Sullivan tripled his wealth while Alaskans struggleMary Peltola · 128 plays · captioned, with the source named
A separate CNBC survey of 1,000 registered voters, released Thursday, found Trump's economic approval at an all-time low of 34 percent, with 65 percent disapproving. Americans preferred Democratic control of Congress 52 percent to 45 percent 2.
things moving either away from Republicans or toward Democrats, depending how you want to look at it, in a way that would make me very nervous if I was leading Republican campaigns leading into these last two weeks
Three Senate races to watch
In Iowa, an Emerson College poll taken October 5 and 6 had Republican Ashley Hinson at 47 percent and Democrat Josh Turek at 45 percent. That is inside the 3.8-point margin of error. A Marist poll in September gave Turek 50 percent to Hinson's 42 percent 1. The two polls also sampled different groups: Emerson surveyed likely voters and Marist surveyed registered voters 1.
In Kansas, which has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932, an Emerson poll from mid-September had Democrat Adam Hamilton at 45 percent and Republican Sen. Roger Marshall at 43 percent. Neither held a statistically significant lead. The same poll found Trump at 40 percent approval and 53 percent disapproval in Kansas 1.
In Alaska, a Data for Progress poll taken October 8 to 16 had Democrat Mary Peltola at 51 percent and Sen. Dan Sullivan at 49 percent. That is within the 4-point margin of error. Trump carried Alaska by 13.1 points in 2024 1.
What Trump and the White House say
Trump rallied voters Thursday in Sioux City, Iowa, as part of a tour meant to help Republicans in tight races 1. White House spokesman Davis Ingle told Newsweek that Trump had built "one of the most robust coalitions in political history" and remained the party's "best messenger" 1.
Newsweek notes that voters can approve of the president without backing his party's local candidate. Hinson has criticized the administration over the Iran war and beef tariffs 1.
The election is Tuesday, November 3. Republicans control the House, the Senate and the White House, and midterms historically punish the president's party 1. In CNBC's poll, 72 percent of Democrats were highly interested in the election, compared with 62 percent of Republicans 2. The Echelon poll's own findings are a reminder that Senate control may turn on which party gets its voters to the polls.
The Record
- An Emerson/Nexstar poll of Kansas, taken September 15 and 16, put Democrat Adam Hamilton at 45% and Sen. Roger Marshall at 43% 1.
- Sabato's Crystal Ball moved Nebraska's Senate race from "Likely Republican" to "Leans Republican" 1.
- Echelon Insights finished polling and found Trump at 50% approval among rural likely voters, up from 40% in September 1.
- CNBC released a survey showing Trump's economic approval at 34%, the lowest of either of his terms 2.
Sources
- Newsweek, “Donald Trump’s Approval Rating Flips With Rural Voters Before Midterms” (2026-10-23). newsweek.com/donald-trump-approval-rating-rural-voters-midte
- CNBC, “Trump's approval rating on economy hits all-time low as midterm looms: CNBC survey” (2026-10-22). cnbc.com/2026/10/22/trump-economic-approval-rating-midterms-
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