Trump twice declared Alaska's Senate race over. Peltola's lead has since grown to 2,517

Twice in the week after the Nov. 3 midterm, President Donald Trump told the country that Alaska's U.S. Senate race was finished and that Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan had won ¹. Neither claim matched the vote count. Democrat Mary Peltola was ahead both times, and after Monday's batch of ballots her lead got bigger ²³.

As of Monday, Nov. 9, Peltola had 106,321 first-choice votes, or 48.6%. Sullivan had 103,804, or 47.5%. That gives her a lead of 2,517 votes, up from 637 before Monday's count ²³. Alaska officials say the winner may not be known until Nov. 18, and certification is expected Nov. 25 ².

On tapeFace the Nation · Nov 5

▶1:28

Then: 'the Election is over'

On Thursday, Nov. 5, Trump posted on Truth Social that votes cast for two minor candidates should be handed to the incumbent. Those two were Daniel J. Sullivan, a retired teacher who shares the senator's name, and Republican Gerald Heikes ¹². He wrote that their votes should be moved "and the Election is over" ¹.

should be immediately given to the REAL Dan Sullivan, and the Election is over - He easily wins.

No such rule exists. Alaska law counts each vote for the candidate the voter chose. Democracy Docket reported that Trump's idea has no legal basis and no historical precedent ⁵.

From Channel GOPTrump on the Alaska ballot and the DOJ suitDonald Trump · 239 plays · captioned, with the source named

Two days later, on Saturday, Nov. 7, Trump wrote that Sullivan was "leading substantially" and complained that the state was slow to name a winner ¹. CBS News reported that about 74% of the vote had been counted at that point. Peltola was ahead by more than 600 votes, and no one had the 50% needed to win outright ¹.

The Alaska Race is OVER. Dan Sullivan WON, BY A LOT!

Now: the count moves the other way

Monday's results did the opposite of what Trump predicted. About 75% to 76% of the expected vote has now been counted. Tens of thousands of early, absentee and questioned ballots are still waiting ³. Peltola's campaign manager said the latest batch broke 68% to 30% for Peltola ³.

Peltola had warned on election night that the count would be slow. Alaska accepts mail ballots from inside the U.S. that arrive up to 10 days after the election. Ballots from overseas can arrive up to 15 days after ⁴. That matters a great deal in rural villages that get their mail by plane or boat ⁴.

It's going to take a long time to make sure we're counting every vote from every far-flung hinterland community.

The ranked-choice twist

No candidate has topped 50%, so Alaska's ranked-choice system will decide the race. The candidate in last place is dropped, and those voters' ballots move to their next choice. This repeats until someone passes 50% ³. The official tally is set for Nov. 18 ³⁴.

Sullivan's campaign says that tally will favor him. As of Nov. 6, it estimated about 20,000 early votes and 27,000 absentee ballots were still uncounted ⁵. Peltola's campaign says second-choice votes will not be enough for Sullivan to catch up ⁶. A New York Times review of ranked-choice data, reported by Democracy Docket, found most of Daniel J. Sullivan's voters picked Peltola as their second choice. That suggests most of them were not confused by the shared name ⁵.

There is an irony here. Trump has called ranked voting a "scam" ⁴. Yet he and Sullivan are now counting on those same second-choice rankings to carry the Republican over the line ³. A ballot measure to repeal the system was trailing with about 52.3% voting no ³.

The 'Decoy Dan' fight

Trump's posts grew out of a dispute over the second Dan Sullivan. The New York Times reported that top Peltola aides appeared to be involved in recruiting him. Federal authorities have confirmed a criminal investigation ⁴. Peltola denies any role, and no one has been charged ⁴⁸. Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy says state officials are also looking into it ³.

On Oct. 28, before any votes were counted, Trump wrote that Peltola "shouldn't be allowed to run" ⁷. The Justice Department sued to block certification if Sullivan lost. A federal judge dismissed that lawsuit, and the department has appealed ⁴. Peltola, for her part, has sued the state for data on rejected absentee ballots, and the Sullivan campaign may join that case ².

That matters because it's a pattern. In both of the close Senate races still open, Alaska and Mississippi, the remaining ballots are being counted under the law. Meanwhile, the president is declaring winners on social media ¹³. Peltola's campaign manager, Cheryl Bruce, made the opposite case: wait for the count.

The numbers are clear: when every vote is counted, Mary Peltola will be elected as Alaska's next United States Senator.

Democrats already hold at least 54 Senate seats to 44 for Republicans, so control of the Senate does not depend on Alaska ³. What is still unsettled is how big the new majority will be. That will be decided by counting the rest of the ballots, not by a social media post.

The Record

1. Oct 28, 2026Trump writes on Truth Social that Peltola 'shouldn't be allowed to run' over the 'Decoy Dan' dispute ⁷.
2. Nov 3, 2026On election night, Peltola says it will take a long time to count every vote from Alaska's far-flung communities ⁴.
3. Nov 5, 2026Trump says votes for two minor candidates should go to Sen. Sullivan and that 'the Election is over' ¹⁸.
4. Nov 7, 2026Trump says Sullivan 'WON, BY A LOT' while Peltola leads by more than 600 votes with about 74% counted ¹.
5. Nov 9, 2026Peltola's lead grows to 2,517 first-choice votes, 48.6% to 47.5% ²³.

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<h2>Trump twice declared Alaska&#39;s Senate race over. Peltola&#39;s lead has since grown to 2,517</h2> <p><em>By The GOP Files Receipts Desk. This article first appeared on <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/story/trump-twice-declared-alaska-s-senate-race-over-peltola-s-lead-has-since-grown-to">The GOP Files</a> on Tuesday, November 10, 2026.</em></p> <p>Twice in the week after the Nov. 3 midterm, President Donald Trump told the country that Alaska&#39;s U.S. Senate race was finished and that Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan had won . Neither claim matched the vote count. Democrat Mary Peltola was ahead both times, and after Monday&#39;s batch of ballots her lead got bigger .</p> <p>As of Monday, Nov. 9, Peltola had 106,321 first-choice votes, or 48.6%. Sullivan had 103,804, or 47.5%. That gives her a lead of 2,517 votes, up from 637 before Monday&#39;s count . Alaska officials say the winner may not be known until Nov. 18, and certification is expected Nov. 25 .</p> <h2>Then: &#39;the Election is over&#39;</h2> <p>On Thursday, Nov. 5, Trump posted on Truth Social that votes cast for two minor candidates should be handed to the incumbent. Those two were Daniel J. Sullivan, a retired teacher who shares the senator&#39;s name, and Republican Gerald Heikes . He wrote that their votes should be moved &quot;and the Election is over&quot; .</p> <blockquote><p>should be immediately given to the REAL Dan Sullivan, and the Election is over - He easily wins.</p><p>&mdash; Donald Trump, President of the United States, Republican</p></blockquote> <p>No such rule exists. Alaska law counts each vote for the candidate the voter chose. Democracy Docket reported that Trump&#39;s idea has no legal basis and no historical precedent .</p> <p>Two days later, on Saturday, Nov. 7, Trump wrote that Sullivan was &quot;leading substantially&quot; and complained that the state was slow to name a winner . CBS News reported that about 74% of the vote had been counted at that point. Peltola was ahead by more than 600 votes, and no one had the 50% needed to win outright .</p> <blockquote><p>The Alaska Race is OVER. Dan Sullivan WON, BY A LOT!</p><p>&mdash; Donald Trump, President of the United States, Republican</p></blockquote> <h2>Now: the count moves the other way</h2> <p>Monday&#39;s results did the opposite of what Trump predicted. About 75% to 76% of the expected vote has now been counted. Tens of thousands of early, absentee and questioned ballots are still waiting . Peltola&#39;s campaign manager said the latest batch broke 68% to 30% for Peltola .</p> <p>Peltola had warned on election night that the count would be slow. Alaska accepts mail ballots from inside the U.S. that arrive up to 10 days after the election. Ballots from overseas can arrive up to 15 days after . That matters a great deal in rural villages that get their mail by plane or boat .</p> <blockquote><p>It&#39;s going to take a long time to make sure we&#39;re counting every vote from every far-flung hinterland community.</p><p>&mdash; Mary Peltola, Democratic Senate candidate and former U.S. representative, D-Alaska</p></blockquote> <h2>The ranked-choice twist</h2> <p>No candidate has topped 50%, so Alaska&#39;s ranked-choice system will decide the race. The candidate in last place is dropped, and those voters&#39; ballots move to their next choice. This repeats until someone passes 50% . The official tally is set for Nov. 18 .</p> <p>Sullivan&#39;s campaign says that tally will favor him. As of Nov. 6, it estimated about 20,000 early votes and 27,000 absentee ballots were still uncounted . Peltola&#39;s campaign says second-choice votes will not be enough for Sullivan to catch up . A New York Times review of ranked-choice data, reported by Democracy Docket, found most of Daniel J. Sullivan&#39;s voters picked Peltola as their second choice. That suggests most of them were not confused by the shared name .</p> <p>There is an irony here. Trump has called ranked voting a &quot;scam&quot; . Yet he and Sullivan are now counting on those same second-choice rankings to carry the Republican over the line . A ballot measure to repeal the system was trailing with about 52.3% voting no .</p> <h2>The &#39;Decoy Dan&#39; fight</h2> <p>Trump&#39;s posts grew out of a dispute over the second Dan Sullivan. The New York Times reported that top Peltola aides appeared to be involved in recruiting him. Federal authorities have confirmed a criminal investigation . Peltola denies any role, and no one has been charged . Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy says state officials are also looking into it .</p> <p>On Oct. 28, before any votes were counted, Trump wrote that Peltola &quot;shouldn&#39;t be allowed to run&quot; . The Justice Department sued to block certification if Sullivan lost. A federal judge dismissed that lawsuit, and the department has appealed . Peltola, for her part, has sued the state for data on rejected absentee ballots, and the Sullivan campaign may join that case .</p> <p>That matters because it&#39;s a pattern. In both of the close Senate races still open, Alaska and Mississippi, the remaining ballots are being counted under the law. Meanwhile, the president is declaring winners on social media . Peltola&#39;s campaign manager, Cheryl Bruce, made the opposite case: wait for the count.</p> <blockquote><p>The numbers are clear: when every vote is counted, Mary Peltola will be elected as Alaska&#39;s next United States Senator.</p><p>&mdash; Cheryl Bruce, Campaign manager for Mary Peltola, Democrat</p></blockquote> <p>Democrats already hold at least 54 Senate seats to 44 for Republicans, so control of the Senate does not depend on Alaska . What is still unsettled is how big the new majority will be. That will be decided by counting the rest of the ballots, not by a social media post.</p> <p><em>Read the original, with every source linked, at <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/story/trump-twice-declared-alaska-s-senate-race-over-peltola-s-lead-has-since-grown-to">thegopfiles.com</a>. Republished under The GOP Files' <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/republish">free republishing terms</a>.</em></p> <img src="https://thegopfiles.com/api/rp/trump-twice-declared-alaska-s-senate-race-over-peltola-s-lead-has-since-grown-to.gif" alt="" width="1" height="1" style="border:0;width:1px;height:1px">

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Sources

1. CBS News, “2026 midterm election updates as Trump says U.S. took a "giant step back in history"” (2026-11-08). cbsnews.com/live-updates/midterm-election-results-2026-democ
2. Anchorage Daily News, “Peltola inches further ahead of Sullivan in Alaska's tight Senate race” (2026-11-09). adn.com/politics/2026/11/09/mary-peltola-inches-further-ahea
3. Fox News (via 930 WFMD), “Peltola widens narrow Alaska Senate lead over Sullivan as counting continues” (2026-11-10). wfmd.com/2026/11/10/peltola-widens-narrow-alaska-senate-lead
4. AP via PBS NewsHour, “Alaskans are waiting for more votes in Senate and governor's races. Both could go to ranked tabulations” (2026-11-05). pbs.org/newshour/politics/alaskans-are-waiting-for-more-vote
5. Democracy Docket, “New data suggests Peltola likely to win Alaska, voters not confused by 2 Dan Sullivans” (2026-11-06). democracydocket.com/news-alerts/new-data-suggests-peltola-li
6. Mary Peltola campaign, “Peltola Campaign Statement on Mary's Path to Victory” (2026-11-05). marypeltola.com/press/peltola-campaign-statement-on-marys-pa
7. WJLA, “Trump: Peltola 'shouldn't be allowed to run' after 'election fraud' in Alaska Senate race” (2026-10-28). wjla.com/news/nation-world/trump-peltola-shouldnt-be-allowed
8. NewsChannel 9, “Trump wants 'fake Dan Sullivan' votes to be counted for 'real Dan Sullivan'” (2026-11-05). newschannel9.com/news/nation-world/trump-wants-fake-dan-sull

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