The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan newsletter that rates congressional races, moved 19 more House races in Democrats' direction on Friday, Oct. 23 1. The change comes 11 days before the Nov. 3 midterm election.
Six districts moved from Toss Up to Lean Democrat, and four of those six are held by Republican incumbents 1. Two open seats, where no incumbent is running, moved from Lean Republican to Toss Up 1. The summary Cook posted accounts for those eight of the 19 changes 1.
What Cook now projects
Cook says "Democrats now are favored outright in the 218 seats they need to win control of the House" 1. The 435-seat chamber needs 218 for a majority 2.
Cook sees "the likeliest outcome as Democrats flipping between 12 and 22 seats" 1. That range is higher than two weeks ago. On Oct. 9, Cook projected a Democratic gain of 9 to 19 seats, which would give the party 224 to 234 seats 2.
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A third shift in three weeks
Friday's update follows two others this month. On Oct. 9, Cook moved 18 races toward Democrats 2. On Oct. 16, it moved 11 more, "all in Democrats’ direction" 3. Cook said half of the Oct. 16 changes were in Ohio, Nebraska and Kansas 3.
That adds up to 48 rating changes in 15 days, and every one moved toward Democrats 123.
The Oct. 9 analysis also noted Republican efforts to turn the race around. Republicans hoped a large advertising push would hurt Democratic challengers 2. Cook's House editor, Erin Covey, wrote that the spending had "yet to move the needle" 2.
What happens next
Ratings are forecasts, not results. Cook can change them again before Election Day, and the outcome depends on who votes. Republicans currently control the House, the Senate and the White House.
That matters because the House writes spending bills and can open investigations. A shift in control would change what Congress can do for the last two years of the current term. The pattern in Cook's ratings is steady movement toward Democrats, but the votes on Nov. 3 are what decide it.
Cook's full analysis of the 19 changes is behind a paywall, so the full list of districts was not available to us. We will update this story if it is released.
The Record
Sources
- The Cook Political Report, “The Cook Political Report Moves 19 More House Seats Towards Democrats” (2026-10-23). thecookpoliticalreport.substack.com/p/the-cook-political-rep
- Newsweek, “Forecast Moves 18 Races Towards Democrats Weeks Before Elections” (2026-10-09). newsweek.com/donald-trump-warning-sign-midterm-elections-18-
- The Cook Political Report, “Eleven More House Races Shift Toward Democrats” (2026-10-16). thecookpoliticalreport.substack.com/p/eleven-more-house-race
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