Democracy & Rule of Law · Report · File No. 261110-555
Democratic state sweeps put a national popular vote for president in reach by 2028
Democrats now hold full control of several swing-state governments, and backers say that could push the National Popular Vote compact past the 270 electoral votes it needs. Opponents say it would face a court fight.
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Democratic wins in last week's midterms have revived a long-running effort to change how the country picks its president. Democrats now hold a "trifecta" in several swing states. That means they control the governor's office and both chambers of the state legislature 12.
Fox News reports trifectas in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Nevada, with Arizona possible if Democrats gain control of both chambers there 1. Mother Jones counts all five, including Arizona, as Democratic trifectas, worth 61 electoral votes together 2. The two reports differ on Arizona.
What the compact would do
The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact is an agreement among states. Each member state would award its electors to the winner of the national popular vote, not to the winner of its own state 12. The Electoral College would stay in place on paper 1.
The compact takes effect only once member states hold 270 electoral votes, a majority of the 538 total. Eighteen states and Washington, D.C., have joined, pledging 222 votes, so it is 48 short 1. Virginia became the 18th state in April 2.
From Channel GOPHakeem Jeffries on corruption after the midtermsHakeem Jeffries · 1.4K plays · captioned, with the source named
Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Nevada hold 50 electoral votes, which would bring the total to 272. Arizona could raise it to 283 1. Mother Jones says Democratic lawmakers in those states will have the votes to act in January, though none has yet passed the compact 2.
Who said what
Patrick Rosenstiel, a senior consultant for National Popular Vote, says the group has sponsors in all five target states. He said he is "increasingly confident we can achieve that goal and we will have a national popular vote for president in 2028" 1. Mother Jones describes him as a Republican strategist 2.
Under the current system, four out of five American voters are on the sidelines.
Critics say the compact would not hold up. Hans von Spakovsky, an election law expert at Advancing American Freedom, argues that it is unprecedented. He says states that stay out would have a strong basis to sue, and the case would likely reach the Supreme Court 1.
They can’t use a compact to, in essence, change the Electoral College,
The legal fight turns on whether Congress must approve the compact. Rosenstiel says the Constitution gives states exclusive power to award electors, and that Congress's role is the only open question. Von Spakovsky says Congress could approve it by simple majorities, though a presidential veto might not stop that 1.
What happens next
Supporters plan to introduce or pre-file bills in the target states before or early in the 2027 legislative session 1. The compact applies to the 2028 election only if states totaling at least 270 electoral votes join by July 20, 2028 1.
That matters because two candidates, Al Gore in 2000 and Hillary Clinton in 2016, won the national popular vote but lost the presidency 2. Alaska's late count could also add 3 electoral votes to the Democratic-controlled column, Mother Jones reports 2.
Michigan's last Democratic trifecta did not produce a vote on this, so passage is not guaranteed. This brief reflects only what the two reports confirm. Neither says any new state has voted to join 12.
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Sources
- Fox News, “Democrats' midterm sweep opens path to bypassing Electoral College by 2028” (2026-11-08). foxnews.com/politics/democrats-midterm-sweep-opens-path-bypa
- Mother Jones, “America Finally Has the Votes to End the Electoral College” (2026-11-05). motherjones.com/politics/2026/11/midterms-electoral-college-
Found an error? Tell the newsroom. Corrections are noted at the top of the story.
More from the files
Democratic wins revive push to bypass Electoral College, but 2028 timing is doubtful
A national popular vote compact is 48 electoral votes short of taking effect, and Democratic gains in five swing states could close the gap. One legal expert says it can't be ready by 2028.
Democrats flip 12 state chambers, break GOP supermajorities across the country
Democrats won control of more than half the nation's state legislative chambers and new trifectas in five states, ending a Republican grip on state government that began in 2010. The losses strip Republicans of veto-proof majorities in six states.
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