Democratic wins revive push to bypass Electoral College, but 2028 timing is doubtful

Democrats' midterm wins in statehouses may have opened a path to a big change in how presidents are chosen. The change could let the winner of the national popular vote effectively decide who enters the White House in 2028 ¹.

The vehicle is the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, an agreement among states. Once states holding at least 270 electoral votes join, each member state would award its presidential electors to the nationwide popular vote winner ¹.

How close is the compact?

So far, 18 states and the District of Columbia have enacted it. Together they hold 222 electoral votes, leaving supporters 48 short of 270 ¹. The compact's own status page lists the same 222 total and says 270 is the number that matters ².

Steven Rogers, a political-science professor at Saint Louis University, told Newsweek that five new Democratic-run states could supply the votes. He named Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada, which have 61 electoral votes between them ¹.

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Adding all five would bring the compact to 283. Supporters would not need all five, because several combinations would clear 270 ¹. New Hampshire, with four more electoral votes, is also seen as promising ¹.

I cannot think of a single redeeming quality to the current system, which leaves four out of five voters on the sidelines when we elect the president

Patrick Rosenstiel of National Popular Vote, the group advocating the change, said it would make every voter politically relevant. He said the group will back legislative sponsors in the key states that swung blue ¹.

Doubts about 2028 and about politics

Vikram Amar, a University of California, Davis law professor who is a prominent voice on the idea, cautioned against moving too fast. He said the plan should not be seen as a partisan ploy and needs support from red states to have credibility ¹.

I think talk of implementing NPV in 2028 is nonsensical; way more than a year or so would be needed to get the project operational in a way that is unlikely to have major glitches

Thad Kousser, a University of California, San Diego political scientist, said Democrats are likely to focus on the issues that won them the election: the cost of living, housing and health care. He said the Electoral College has drawn less Democratic attention since 2016 ¹.

What it would and would not do

The compact would not abolish the Electoral College. That would take a constitutional amendment, a much higher bar ¹.

It could also cut both ways. A state could award its electors to a candidate who lost that state, if that candidate won the national vote. A Democrat could win Pennsylvania in 2028 and still see its electors go to a Republican who won more votes nationwide ¹.

Campaign strategy would shift too. Winning swing states would matter less, and votes in safe states would matter more. Republicans would have reason to chase votes in California, and Democrats in deep red states ¹.

Under the compact's terms, it governs an election only if it is in effect on July 20 of that election year in states with 270 or more electoral votes ². Newly elected officials take their posts in 2027, so supporters would have a short window ¹. Nothing has been enacted yet in the five states.

The Record

1. Nov 3, 2020Colorado voters approved the state's entry into the National Popular Vote compact ².
2. Nov 6, 2026Newsweek reports the compact holds 222 electoral votes, 48 short of 270, as Democratic statehouse gains raise hopes of reaching the threshold ¹.

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<h2>Democratic wins revive push to bypass Electoral College, but 2028 timing is doubtful</h2> <p><em>By The GOP Files Investigations Desk. This article first appeared on <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/story/democratic-wins-revive-push-to-bypass-electoral-college-but-2028-timing-is-doubtful">The GOP Files</a> on Friday, November 6, 2026.</em></p> <p>Democrats&#39; midterm wins in statehouses may have opened a path to a big change in how presidents are chosen. The change could let the winner of the national popular vote effectively decide who enters the White House in 2028 .</p> <p>The vehicle is the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, an agreement among states. Once states holding at least 270 electoral votes join, each member state would award its presidential electors to the nationwide popular vote winner .</p> <h2>How close is the compact?</h2> <p>So far, 18 states and the District of Columbia have enacted it. Together they hold 222 electoral votes, leaving supporters 48 short of 270 . The compact&#39;s own status page lists the same 222 total and says 270 is the number that matters .</p> <p>Steven Rogers, a political-science professor at Saint Louis University, told Newsweek that five new Democratic-run states could supply the votes. He named Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada, which have 61 electoral votes between them .</p> <p>Adding all five would bring the compact to 283. Supporters would not need all five, because several combinations would clear 270 . New Hampshire, with four more electoral votes, is also seen as promising .</p> <blockquote><p>I cannot think of a single redeeming quality to the current system, which leaves four out of five voters on the sidelines when we elect the president</p><p>&mdash; Patrick Rosenstiel, senior consultant, National Popular Vote</p></blockquote> <p>Patrick Rosenstiel of National Popular Vote, the group advocating the change, said it would make every voter politically relevant. He said the group will back legislative sponsors in the key states that swung blue .</p> <h2>Doubts about 2028 and about politics</h2> <p>Vikram Amar, a University of California, Davis law professor who is a prominent voice on the idea, cautioned against moving too fast. He said the plan should not be seen as a partisan ploy and needs support from red states to have credibility .</p> <blockquote><p>I think talk of implementing NPV in 2028 is nonsensical; way more than a year or so would be needed to get the project operational in a way that is unlikely to have major glitches</p><p>&mdash; Vikram Amar, Distinguished Professor of Law, UC Davis School of Law</p></blockquote> <p>Thad Kousser, a University of California, San Diego political scientist, said Democrats are likely to focus on the issues that won them the election: the cost of living, housing and health care. He said the Electoral College has drawn less Democratic attention since 2016 .</p> <h2>What it would and would not do</h2> <p>The compact would not abolish the Electoral College. That would take a constitutional amendment, a much higher bar .</p> <p>It could also cut both ways. A state could award its electors to a candidate who lost that state, if that candidate won the national vote. A Democrat could win Pennsylvania in 2028 and still see its electors go to a Republican who won more votes nationwide .</p> <p>Campaign strategy would shift too. Winning swing states would matter less, and votes in safe states would matter more. Republicans would have reason to chase votes in California, and Democrats in deep red states .</p> <p>Under the compact&#39;s terms, it governs an election only if it is in effect on July 20 of that election year in states with 270 or more electoral votes . Newly elected officials take their posts in 2027, so supporters would have a short window . Nothing has been enacted yet in the five states.</p> <p><em>Read the original, with every source linked, at <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/story/democratic-wins-revive-push-to-bypass-electoral-college-but-2028-timing-is-doubtful">thegopfiles.com</a>. Republished under The GOP Files' <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/republish">free republishing terms</a>.</em></p> <img src="https://thegopfiles.com/api/rp/democratic-wins-revive-push-to-bypass-electoral-college-but-2028-timing-is-doubtful.gif" alt="" width="1" height="1" style="border:0;width:1px;height:1px">

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Sources

1. Newsweek, “Blue Tsunami May Have Outsized 2028 Impact as Left Eyes Electoral College” (2026-11-06). newsweek.com/blue-tsunami-2028-impact-left-eyes-electoral-co
2. National Popular Vote, “Status of the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact” (2026-11-06). nationalpopularvote.com/state-status

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