Senate Majority Leader John Thune campaigned in Sioux City, Iowa, on Friday with Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson. He said Iowa, a state that has been reliably red in recent elections, may now decide who controls the Senate 1.
The majority in the United States Senate must run through the state of Iowa,
Hinson is running for an open Senate seat against Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek. Democrats have not won a U.S. Senate race in Iowa since 2008, but polls have shown the two locked in a dead heat as prices squeeze Iowans, especially farmers 1.
What the polls show
A Fox News poll taken Sept. 24-28 found Turek ahead of Hinson 49% to 47% among likely voters. That is within the poll's margin of error of 3 percentage points, so neither candidate can be called the leader 2.
The same poll found 42% of Iowans approve of President Trump's job performance and 57% disapprove. Trump won the state with nearly 56% of the vote in 2024 2. Hinson's favorable rating was 42% and her unfavorable rating was 50%. For Turek, the numbers were 48% favorable and 40% unfavorable 2.
From Channel GOPTurek lists opponent's votes on healthcare, tariffs, warJosh Turek · 6 plays · captioned, with the source named
Six in 10 voters said the cost of living would be extremely important to their Senate vote 2. At Friday's roundtable, local business leaders raised high prices, childcare, supply chain problems, and housing and diesel costs 1.
Thune's warning and Hinson's distance from Trump
Thune warned that if Democrats win the majority, the next two years would be spent on "nothing but investigations and impeachment trials and all that sort of thing." He said that is not a good place for the American people to be 1.
Asked why a state Trump won by 13 points is now so close, Thune pointed to "economic and political headwinds" for Republican candidates. He still predicted Hinson would win 1.
Hinson first ran on her closeness to the White House. In recent weeks she has pushed back on the unpopular war in Iran and on high energy prices 1. She has called for suspending the gas tax, pausing U.S. diesel exports and giving diesel relief to farmers and truckers 1. She still appeared with Trump at a rally a few miles away on Thursday, though Thune did not attend 1.
In the Fox poll, 52% of voters said they were more concerned that Hinson is too close to Trump. Another 43% said they worried Turek is too liberal 2.
Why it matters
Republicans hold 53 Senate seats, so Democrats would need to flip four and defend their own to take control 1. Democrats acknowledge that nearly everything would need to go right for them. But the Senate majority is no longer an unthinkable goal 1.
The analysis is simple. When the Senate's top Republican spends a Friday in western Iowa, his party is defending ground it once took for granted. The map also reaches Nebraska and Kansas, where Republicans face tougher races than expected 1.
Election Day is Nov. 3. Thune put it this way: "we've got to get through Nov. 3" 1.
The Record
Sources
- CBS News, “Thune campaigns with Ashley Hinson as Senate GOP zeroes in on Iowa” (2026-10-24). cbsnews.com/news/thune-ashley-hinson-senate-republicans-iowa
- Fox News, “Fox News Poll: Iowa Senate race (Turek vs. Hinson)” (2026-10-01). foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-turek-hinson-close-iowa-s
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