Cook shifts Kansas and Nebraska governor races toward Democrats a week before midterms

The Cook Political Report shifted two governor's races toward Democrats on Tuesday, one week before the November 3 midterm election, in Nebraska and Kansas — states President Donald Trump won easily in 2024 ¹.

Cook moved Nebraska's governor race from likely Republican to lean Republican, and Kansas' from lean Republican to toss-up ¹. Trump carried Kansas with 57.2 percent of the vote to Kamala Harris' 41 percent, and Nebraska with 59.3 percent to 38.9 percent ¹.

In Kansas, Cook cited the tightening U.S. Senate race between Democrat Adam Hamilton and Republican Roger Marshall, along with internal polling from Democratic nominee Cindy Holscher, as reasons for the change ¹. Holscher faces Republican Ty Masterson, who is backed by Trump and has led in most polling ¹.

Cook said Republicans still see Kansas as their best takeover opportunity but that the race's volatility warranted a more competitive rating ¹. Holscher responded on X, saying that despite more than $20 million spent against her, the momentum was clearly on her side ¹.

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In Nebraska, Cook cited internal polling and a crowded ballot that includes Rick Beard of the Legal Marijuana Now Party and Brett Lindstrom of the America First Party ¹. Republican Gov. Jim Pillen, who is backed by Trump, leads in most recent polling ¹.

A YouGov survey showed Walz at 43 percent to Pillen's 44 percent, with 10 percent undecided; it surveyed 1,809 Nebraska likely voters from September 24 to October 3 with a margin of error of 3.3 percent ¹. In Kansas, a YouGov poll had Masterson at 47 percent to Holscher's 44 percent, surveying 2,255 likely voters from September 24 to October 4 with a 3.2 percent margin of error ¹.

A New York Times and Siena Research Institute poll showed Masterson at 49 percent and Holscher at 44 percent, surveying 605 likely voters from September 22 to September 30 with a 4.6 percent margin of error ¹. On the prediction market Kalshi, Pillen stood at 82 percent to Walz's 18 percent, and Masterson at 73 percent to Holscher's 27 percent, with Polymarket showing nearly identical spreads Tuesday night ¹.

Sophie Mestas, a spokesperson for Walz's campaign, said the shift reflects what the campaign sees on the ground ¹.

Cook says Democrats are positioned to net two to four governorships this cycle ¹. There are 36 governor's seats on the ballot, of which the parties currently hold 18 apiece ¹.

Why it matters

That matters because governor's races in states Trump won by double digits are now rated competitive with six days to go, a sign the midterm map is widening beyond the battlegrounds ¹. Cook notes that the president's party has historically lost seats in midterm elections, and that Trump's approval and ratings on the economy, immigration, jobs and the war in Iran have recently slipped as households flag affordability concerns ¹.

Newsweek said it reached out to the Masterson, Holscher and Pillen campaigns on Tuesday night and had not reported responses ¹.

The Record

1. Sep 30, 2026A New York Times/Siena poll of 605 likely Kansas voters showed Masterson at 49 percent and Holscher at 44 percent ¹
2. Oct 3, 2026A YouGov survey of 1,809 Nebraska likely voters showed Walz at 43 percent and Pillen at 44 percent ¹
3. Oct 27, 2026Cook Political Report shifted Nebraska's governor race to lean Republican and Kansas' to toss-up ¹

Sources

1. Newsweek, “Governor Races Shift Toward Democrats in States Trump Won by Double Digits” (2026-10-28). newsweek.com/governor-races-shift-toward-democrats-in-states
2. The Hill, “Trump doubles down in Texas” (2026-10-27). thehill.com/newsletters/1230-report/6175231-trump-doubles-do

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