Ex-RNC chair McDaniel says Democrats will 'probably' win the House a week before midterms

Ronna McDaniel, the former chair of the Republican National Committee (RNC), said Tuesday that Democrats are likely to take back the House of Representatives. She made the remark a week before the Nov. 3 midterm elections. McDaniel led the RNC from 2017 to 2024 ¹.

McDaniel spoke with CBS News's Major Garrett. Mediaite reported the interview was on the CBS program The Takeout ¹².

I think the House, you know with three seats that the Dems need to pick up, is probably going to go to the Democrats,

Democrats need to pick up three seats to win the House, McDaniel said. She added that "all eyes are on the Senate," but that "the map has expanded and Democrats are feeling bullish" ¹.

A warning about Texas spending

McDaniel also pointed to where President Trump has been campaigning. She cited his travel to red states including Kansas, South Carolina, Mississippi and Texas ¹.

From Channel GOPTalarico: Elon Musk is trying to buy Texas Senate seatJames Talarico · 139 plays · captioned, with the source named

I know for a fact, you’re not in these states unless there’s a data point that’s driving him to spend time in those states,

Trump made his fourth visit to Texas in two months on Tuesday. He held two rallies with Republican Senate nominee Ken Paxton, the state attorney general, in Corpus Christi and Lubbock ¹.

MAGA Inc., the president's political action committee, has given millions to support Paxton against Democratic state Rep. James Talarico ¹. Mediaite, citing Reuters, reported that outside groups have spent $239 million backing Paxton ².

Talarico reported nearly $10 million in cash on hand in Federal Election Commission filings earlier this month. Republicans worry he could be the first Democrat to win a U.S. Senate seat in Texas since 1988 ¹.

What the forecasts say

Decision Desk HQ gives Democrats about an 80 percent chance of retaking the House. It puts their odds in the Senate at about 57 percent ¹.

McDaniel was not ready to concede the Senate. Mediaite quoted her as saying "I think Republicans could keep the Senate," while adding that "it is a tough environment out there and Trump is spending his money" ².

What happens next

Polls close Tuesday, Nov. 3. Talarico brushed off Trump's attacks at his own Lubbock rally on Tuesday. He told supporters the state was "ready for change" ¹.

That matters because McDaniel is no Democratic partisan. She ran the national Republican organization for seven years. When someone with her background questions the party's heavy spending to defend a Texas Senate seat, it suggests that the GOP's own map is under pressure ¹². This is analysis, not a forecast, and the votes have not been cast yet.

The Record

1. Oct 20, 2026Talarico reported nearly $10 million cash on hand in Federal Election Commission filings earlier in October ¹.
2. Oct 27, 2026Trump held rallies with Paxton in Corpus Christi and Lubbock, his fourth Texas trip in two months ¹.
3. Oct 27, 2026McDaniel told CBS News the House is 'probably' going to Democrats ¹².

Sources

1. The Hill, “Former RNC chair: Democrats will 'probably' take House control” (2026-10-28). thehill.com/homenews/campaign/6177899-ronna-mcdaniel-rnc-gop
2. Mediaite, “Ronna McDaniel Slams Her Party's Big Spending on Ken Paxton” (2026-10-27). mediaite.com/media/tv/former-rnc-chair-ronna-mcdaniel-predic

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