Millions of Northeast homeowners could pay much more to heat their homes this winter. Heating oil prices remain high after surging in the months after the Iran war began in late February 1. The average price is now above $6 a gallon, up more than 70 percent from a year ago, according to Energy Information Administration (EIA) data 1. The EIA is the federal government's energy statistics agency.
Most U.S. homes heat with natural gas or electricity. Only about 4 percent of households nationwide use heating oil as their main source, and the 4.8 million households that do are concentrated in the Northeast 1.
Where the prices are highest
As of Oct. 12, heating oil averaged $6.14 a gallon nationwide, up about $2.59 from a year earlier 1. New York had the highest price at $6.335 a gallon, followed by New Jersey at $6.313 and Delaware at $6.305 1. Maine's price rose $2.702 over the year, to $5.969 1.
Maine has the nation's highest share of homes that rely on heating oil, at around 50 percent, based on 2022 Census Bureau data 1. New Hampshire, Vermont, Connecticut, Alaska and Rhode Island follow, with shares between 25 and 37 percent 1.
From Channel GOPJackson: Collins could defund the Iran warTroy Jackson · 152 plays · captioned, with the source named
Real crunch time comes with dead-of-winter since diesel and heating oil are essentially the same molecules,
What it could cost
The EIA's winter outlook, released Oct. 6, says homes using heating oil will pay about 21 percent more for the fuel than last winter 2. The agency says milder Northeast weather offsets part of a price increase of more than 30 percent 2. It also says East Coast stockpiles of distillate, the fuel family that includes heating oil and diesel, were 32 percent below their five-year seasonal average in September 2.
Newsweek reports that EIA projects roughly $2,115 in heating oil costs through March for the average household 1. The EIA release itself does not state an average household cost 2. Energy adviser Tom Kloza estimated that a typical Northeast household uses 800 to 1,000 gallons a season, which would mean a bill near $6,000 compared with $3,500 or $4,000 in earlier years 1.
The politics
Newsweek reports that rising fuel prices and inflation are souring Americans on the Trump administration, and that the president's approval rating has fallen to historic lows since late February 1. Higher heating costs in Maine and New Hampshire could make an issue that affects a limited share of households matter nationally, the outlet reports 1.
In Maine, Democrat Troy Jackson is challenging Republican Sen. Susan Collins, with the latest polling giving him a narrow margin 1. In New Hampshire, Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas leads Republican John Sununu in the latest polling for the seat Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen is leaving 1. Democrats need to flip four GOP-held seats to take the Senate majority 1.
What could help
Forecasters expect a very strong El Niño, a Pacific Ocean weather pattern, this winter. It typically raises the odds of a warmer, drier winter across the northern U.S. 1. The EIA cautions that a strong El Niño could lead to different weather outcomes 2. A single cold snap could erase the savings, one climate researcher said 1.
The Record
Sources
- Newsweek, “Map Reveals States That Could Face Worst Heating Bills This Winter” (2026-10-23). newsweek.com/map-reveals-states-that-could-face-worst-heatin
- U.S. Energy Information Administration, “EIA winter fuels outlook press release” (2026-10-06). eia.gov/pressroom/releases/press593.php
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