Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil's leftist president, has won a fourth term in a runoff, beating Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former far-right President Jair Bolsonaro, by more than 4 million votes 2. Newsweek describes Flávio Bolsonaro as President Trump's right-wing ally and says Lula's win defied polls, prediction markets and history 1.
NPR reports it is the first time since Brazil restored democracy in 1989 that a candidate who finished second in the first round went on to win the presidency 2.
A blow to Trump's regional push
Newsweek says it is easy to read the result as a major blow to Trump's so-called "Donroe Doctrine," his effort to enforce American dominance in the Western Hemisphere 1. It says life at the White House would have been easier had Bolsonaro won 1. Trump has openly attacked Lula, according to Newsweek 1.
Newsweek's analysis argues the damage is limited. It says the contest that matters most to Washington is the US competition with China, and that strategic access "does not need perfect political alignment" 1. That phrase is Newsweek's, not an official's.
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The rare-earth deals
Rare earths are minerals used to make strong magnets for electric vehicles, wind turbines and defense equipment 1. On August 24, the Brazilian producer Serra Verde announced that a 15-year agreement covering all of its Phase I production had taken effect. The buyer is a special-purpose company backed by $750 million from the Department of War 1.
On September 3, USA Rare Earth, a magnet maker with a $1.6 billion Commerce Department funding deal, completed its purchase of Serra Verde 1. The US International Development Finance Corporation also signed a $565 million loan agreement to expand the mine 1. All of this happened while Lula was in office 1.
There has been friction. Newsweek cites reporting by Brazil's UOL that State Department officials favoring Bolsonaro clashed with National Security Council officials who put Brazil's rare earths first. UOL also reported anger in Brasília because the purchase went ahead without an understanding with the Brazilian government 1.
What happens next
On September 16, Lula signed a law meant to keep more mineral processing and industry inside Brazil. It also gives a new government council a role in approving certain corporate changes of control involving mineral assets 1. Newsweek says such rules could complicate further American expansion 1.
The deal still has to deliver. Serra Verde expected deliveries to begin early in the fourth quarter. USA Rare Earth still projected first magnet sales by year-end, but it lists a processing circuit for Serra Verde's material as still under technical development 1.
execution, integrating operations, and moving efficiently toward steady-state and reliable supply.
That matters because the same trade and tariff relationship that touches American supply chains now runs through a president Trump has attacked. How the White House handles Lula will show whether its approach to the region can work without a friendly leader in Brasília.
The Record
- Serra Verde announced its 15-year rare-earth supply agreement, backed by $750 million from the Department of War, had taken effect 1.
- USA Rare Earth completed its acquisition of Serra Verde 1.
- Lula signed a law promoting mineral processing inside Brazil and creating council review of some mineral-asset deals 1.
- Lula's win over Flávio Bolsonaro by more than 4 million votes was reported 2.
Sources
- Newsweek, “Trump Already Has a Victory in Lula's Brazil” (2026-10-26). newsweek.com/brazil-lula-trump-bolsonaro-rare-earths-1261781
- NPR, “Redistricting isn't playing out how the GOP hoped. And, Brazil's Lula wins 4th term” (2026-10-26). npr.org/2026/10/26/g-s1-149917/up-first-newsletter-republica
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