Mortgage rates above 7% leave housing frozen as voters head to the polls Tuesday

Five days before the midterm election, the U.S. housing market is stuck. Mortgage rates are high, sales are falling and many would-be buyers are waiting. Economists say that is feeding voter frustration over the cost of living ¹.

As of Oct. 22, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 7.32%, according to Freddie Mac. A year earlier it was 6.19% ¹.

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The U.S. housing market is in hibernation

That is how Joel Berner, a senior economist at Realtor.com, described the market. He said September had the slowest pace of pending home sales, which are signed contracts that have not yet closed, since 2001 ¹.

Rates rose after the Iran conflict began

Berner said rates briefly dipped below 6% for one week in late February, before the conflict in Iran broke out. They have since climbed back above 7% ¹. Most experts had expected 2026 to bring some relief on affordability, mainly from lower rates ¹.

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The Mortgage Bankers Association put its average 30-year rate at 7.49% for the week ending Oct. 2, the highest in nearly three years. Mortgage applications fell 4.2% that week, to their lowest since February 2025 ². That group tracks rates differently from Freddie Mac, so the two numbers differ.

Very few homeowners have an incentive to refinance at these rates

Joel Kan, the association's deputy chief economist, said that about the pull-back from buying. Rates generally follow the 10-year Treasury yield, which hit a 24-year high of 5.3% in early October amid oil prices tied to tensions with Iran ².

Prices still rise, even as sales fall

The median existing-home price in September was $417,500, up 1.3% from a year earlier, according to the National Association of Realtors. Existing-home sales fell 2.2% over the same period ¹.

New homes are a different story. The median new-home price fell 3.9% to $400,400, as builders offered discounts. New-home sales still fell 5.3% from a year earlier ¹.

Pending sales dropped 11.3% from a year earlier. Lawrence Yun, the Realtors' chief economist, blamed higher mortgage rates and said they "could be topping out" ¹.

What voters say

In a Pew Research Center survey released this month, 66% of U.S. adults said they are very concerned about housing costs. That included 76% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents and 53% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents ¹.

A Hometap survey of 1,000 homeowners found 77% said a candidate's plan to lower homeownership costs would affect their vote ¹.

Not every expert sees housing as the deciding issue. Pete Carroll of the data firm Cotality said housing is not a dividing line, but part of a broader frustration over the cost of living ¹. A late-August Reuters/Ipsos poll found 47% of voters named cost of living as the most important issue ².

Berner said buyers with plenty of cash or home equity may find bargains. Buyers who need a mortgage are often struggling to find entry-level homes they can afford ¹.

The pattern is clear in the numbers. Many older homeowners hold large amounts of equity and may be weighing a move, but high rates keep buyers and sellers on the sidelines ¹. Voters will weigh that on Tuesday.

The Record

1. Oct 2, 2026Mortgage Bankers Association's 30-year rate average hit 7.49%, the highest in nearly three years ².
2. Oct 22, 2026Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed rate averaged 7.32%, up from 6.19% a year earlier ¹.
3. Oct 29, 2026Newsweek reports that September pending home sales were down 11.3% from a year earlier ¹.

Sources

1. Newsweek, “'Hibernating' Housing Market Could Stoke Voter Anger in Midterms” (2026-10-29). newsweek.com/hibernating-housing-market-could-stoke-voter-an
2. Al Jazeera, “US mortgage rates hit their highest level in three years” (2026-10-07). aljazeera.com/economy/2026/10/7/us-mortgage-rates-hit-their-

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