NBC says Democrat Mary Peltola likely to beat Sen. Dan Sullivan in Alaska

Former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola is likely to win Alaska's Senate race, according to an NBC News Decision Desk analysis released Saturday. Votes are still being counted. The call would unseat Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan. ¹

NBC says "likely" means its analysts have at least 95% confidence that Peltola will win. She has widened her narrow lead with each new batch of votes reported this week. ¹

On tapeNBC News · Nov 14

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Alaska is the only 2026 Senate race that NBC has not yet projected. If Peltola wins, Democrats will hold a 56-44 majority in the Senate next year. ¹

How the lead grew

The race was very close early on. On Nov. 5, Peltola led by just 637 votes, 102,962 to 102,325, according to Alaska's News Source. ³

From Channel GOPPeltola: Tariffs doubled Alaska air taxi's parts billMary Peltola · 142 plays · captioned, with the source named

By Nov. 11, with 84% of the vote counted, the Associated Press count showed Peltola at 118,926 votes, or 49%. Sullivan had 114,676. Peltola led him by more than 4,000 votes. ²

A third candidate, Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., had 4,027 votes. Peltola led both men named Sullivan combined by 223 votes. ²

Why the race is still open

Alaskans vote heavily by mail. Ballots postmarked by Election Day count if they arrived by Nov. 13, and a few days later for valid overseas voters. ¹

Alaska also uses ranked-choice voting. If no one wins a majority on the first count, the last-place candidate is dropped. That candidate's voters' second choices are then counted, and the process repeats until someone has a majority. ¹

Alaska's News Source reported that the ranked-choice tabulation begins Nov. 18. ³ As of Nov. 11, Peltola was about one percentage point short of the 50% mark. ²

What each side says

Peltola's campaign has said for more than a week that the final count will favor her. Sullivan's campaign has pushed back. A spokesperson said: "With tens of thousands of ballots still to be counted, there's a long way to go before every Alaskan's voice is heard." ²

The numbers are clear: when every vote is counted, Mary Peltola will be elected as Alaska's next United States Senator

The Sullivan campaign also argued that a ranked-choice count would favor him. It cited a New York Times report alleging that Peltola's team helped put a second Dan Sullivan on the ballot. The Peltola campaign has denied that. ³

Democracy Docket said President Donald Trump has argued that all votes for Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. should go to Dan Sullivan. It reported that Trump claims Peltola's campaign recruited him as a decoy. The Peltola campaign denies this. ² Democracy Docket's founder chairs the law firm that represents Peltola's campaign. ²

What happens next

NBC's analysis is not an official result. Alaska's state elections officials still have to finish the count and run the ranked-choice round if one is needed. ¹³

That matters because the Senate's final makeup depends on it. A 56-44 Democratic majority would be one more seat than Democrats would hold without Alaska. ¹

The Record

1. Nov 5, 2026Peltola led Sullivan by 637 votes, 102,962 to 102,325, in the count reported that day ³
2. Nov 11, 2026With 84% counted, Peltola led Sullivan by more than 4,000 votes, per the AP count cited by Democracy Docket ²
3. Nov 14, 2026NBC's Decision Desk said Peltola is likely to win; it is the only Senate race it has not projected ¹

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<h2>NBC says Democrat Mary Peltola likely to beat Sen. Dan Sullivan in Alaska</h2> <p><em>By The GOP Files Campaign Desk. This article first appeared on <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/story/nbc-says-democrat-mary-peltola-likely-to-beat-sen-dan-sullivan-in-alaska">The GOP Files</a> on Saturday, November 14, 2026.</em></p> <p>Former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola is likely to win Alaska&#39;s Senate race, according to an NBC News Decision Desk analysis released Saturday. Votes are still being counted. The call would unseat Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan.</p> <p>NBC says &quot;likely&quot; means its analysts have at least 95% confidence that Peltola will win. She has widened her narrow lead with each new batch of votes reported this week.</p> <p>Alaska is the only 2026 Senate race that NBC has not yet projected. If Peltola wins, Democrats will hold a 56-44 majority in the Senate next year.</p> <h2>How the lead grew</h2> <p>The race was very close early on. On Nov. 5, Peltola led by just 637 votes, 102,962 to 102,325, according to Alaska&#39;s News Source.</p> <p>By Nov. 11, with 84% of the vote counted, the Associated Press count showed Peltola at 118,926 votes, or 49%. Sullivan had 114,676. Peltola led him by more than 4,000 votes.</p> <p>A third candidate, Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., had 4,027 votes. Peltola led both men named Sullivan combined by 223 votes.</p> <h2>Why the race is still open</h2> <p>Alaskans vote heavily by mail. Ballots postmarked by Election Day count if they arrived by Nov. 13, and a few days later for valid overseas voters.</p> <p>Alaska also uses ranked-choice voting. If no one wins a majority on the first count, the last-place candidate is dropped. That candidate&#39;s voters&#39; second choices are then counted, and the process repeats until someone has a majority.</p> <p>Alaska&#39;s News Source reported that the ranked-choice tabulation begins Nov. 18. As of Nov. 11, Peltola was about one percentage point short of the 50% mark.</p> <h2>What each side says</h2> <p>Peltola&#39;s campaign has said for more than a week that the final count will favor her. Sullivan&#39;s campaign has pushed back. A spokesperson said: &quot;With tens of thousands of ballots still to be counted, there&#39;s a long way to go before every Alaskan&#39;s voice is heard.&quot;</p> <blockquote><p>The numbers are clear: when every vote is counted, Mary Peltola will be elected as Alaska&#39;s next United States Senator</p><p>&mdash; Cheryl Bruce, campaign manager, Peltola for Senate (Democrat)</p></blockquote> <p>The Sullivan campaign also argued that a ranked-choice count would favor him. It cited a New York Times report alleging that Peltola&#39;s team helped put a second Dan Sullivan on the ballot. The Peltola campaign has denied that.</p> <p>Democracy Docket said President Donald Trump has argued that all votes for Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. should go to Dan Sullivan. It reported that Trump claims Peltola&#39;s campaign recruited him as a decoy. The Peltola campaign denies this. Democracy Docket&#39;s founder chairs the law firm that represents Peltola&#39;s campaign.</p> <h2>What happens next</h2> <p>NBC&#39;s analysis is not an official result. Alaska&#39;s state elections officials still have to finish the count and run the ranked-choice round if one is needed.</p> <p>That matters because the Senate&#39;s final makeup depends on it. A 56-44 Democratic majority would be one more seat than Democrats would hold without Alaska.</p> <p><em>Read the original, with every source linked, at <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/story/nbc-says-democrat-mary-peltola-likely-to-beat-sen-dan-sullivan-in-alaska">thegopfiles.com</a>. Republished under The GOP Files' <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/republish">free republishing terms</a>.</em></p> <img src="https://thegopfiles.com/api/rp/nbc-says-democrat-mary-peltola-likely-to-beat-sen-dan-sullivan-in-alaska.gif" alt="" width="1" height="1" style="border:0;width:1px;height:1px">

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Sources

1. NBC News, “Democrat Mary Peltola is likely to win Alaska's Senate race, as vote counting continues” (2026-11-14). nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/democrat-mary-peltola-lik
2. Democracy Docket, “Peltola leads both Sullivans combined as she heads to victory in Alaska contest” (2026-11-11). democracydocket.com/news-alerts/peltola-leads-both-sullivans
3. Alaska's News Source (KTUU), “Peltola and Sullivan campaigns project wins while a quarter of ballots are outstanding” (2026-11-05). alaskasnewssource.com/2026/11/06/peltola-sullivan-campaigns-

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