Trump's Iran war drags on GOP midterm candidates as gas prices stay high

President Donald Trump's war with Iran, which he often calls a "little detour," has become a liability for Republican candidates a week before the Nov. 3 midterm election, according to ABC News ¹. The network reports that Republican strategists privately acknowledge the war is severely damaging the party's effort to keep control of Congress for the final two years of Trump's presidency ¹.

The conflict is nearly eight months old. Trump predicted at the start it would last a matter of weeks ¹. Diesel prices are near all-time highs, and the national average for gasoline has stayed above $4 a gallon since the middle of June, ABC reports ¹. The network says that is creating trouble for Republicans in usually conservative states such as Iowa, Kansas, Ohio and Texas, where they are in competitive races with Democrats ¹.

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Noor Dubow, 44, a trucking dispatcher in Columbus, Ohio, told ABC he regularly votes for Republicans but cast an early ballot leaning toward Democrats this year because of the war ¹.

Where are the Republicans in Congress?

Trump has defended the decision. At a weekend rally in Michigan, he said he had no regrets and argued the economic damage was less than he expected ¹.

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I thought gas would be double or triple. And it’s a small price to pay for taking a nuclear weapon away from maniacs.

The war has widened. Iran-backed Houthi rebels have attacked Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure and airports, and a Saudi-led coalition has struck Houthi-held territory in Yemen, ABC reports ¹. Over the weekend, the State Department said it was reducing staffing at four U.S. embassies in the Middle East after intelligence indicated Iran had stepped up efforts to target American personnel ¹.

Christopher Borick, director of the Lehigh University Opinion Observatory, told ABC that the president's mixed message leaves Republican candidates in a difficult position ¹.

Trump's messaging on the war is resonating with a shrinking portion of the electorate.

An AP-NORC poll published last week found voters from both major parties want the next Congress to focus on making life more affordable and to end the war in Iran ¹. ABC also reports that five Republican strategists involved in key races said early in the summer they had begun seeing warning signs the war could hurt their candidates ¹.

What is at stake on Nov. 3

All 435 House seats are on the ballot, and Democrats need a net gain of four to take control, The Guardian reports ². In the Senate, 35 seats are up, including special elections in Florida and Ohio; Republicans hold 53 seats to 47 for Democrats and independents who caucus with them, and Democrats need four seats for a majority ². Voters will also choose governors in 36 states and three territories ².

The Guardian notes that the president's party has lost House seats in 18 of the past 20 midterm elections, a 90% rate stretching back to 1946 ². It also reports that a RealClearPolitics average of national generic polls showed Democrats ahead by 8.2 points in early October ². That matters because a Democratic majority in either chamber could block legislation, launch investigations and slow Trump's appointments ².

Trump has said the election would have no bearing on how he handles the conflict, and he has at times threatened a new, intensive round of bombing after the election passes ¹. The pattern is that the war's cost is now being debated in the same campaign speeches that decide who controls Congress.

The Record

1. Jun 15, 2026The national average gasoline price has hovered above $4 a gallon since the middle of June ¹.
2. Oct 20, 2026An AP-NORC poll published last week found voters of both parties want the next Congress to make life more affordable and end the Iran war ¹.
3. Oct 26, 2026The State Department said over the weekend it was reducing staffing at four U.S. embassies in the Middle East after intelligence that Iran stepped up efforts to target American personnel ¹.

Sources

1. ABC News, “How Trump’s ‘little detour’ to Iran became a roadblock in the midterm elections” (2026-10-27). abcnews.com/Politics/wireStory/trumps-detour-iran-roadblock-
2. The Guardian, “What are the US midterm elections and why do they matter?” (2026-10-26). theguardian.com/us-news/2026/oct/26/what-are-midterm-electio

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