Trump vowed to 'end inflation.' With prices up 3.7%, he now tells rallies it's 1.7%

On Thursday in Rock Hill, South Carolina, five days before the midterm election, President Trump defended his economic record with a number he has been using for months. He cited a 1.7% inflation rate over the last three months ¹¹.

The government's most recent report puts inflation at 3.7% over the past 12 months ⁴⁶. That is up from 3.4% in July and August, and CNN called Trump's figure erroneous ⁴.

This was not a one-time slip. Trump used the same figure at a Tuesday rally in Wasilla, Alaska, and again at a Wednesday rally in Kalispell, Montana, more than 12 hours after the September numbers came out ⁴. CNN's fact-checker reported that the White House ignored requests to explain it ⁴.

Then: the promise

In 2024, Trump blamed Democrats for high prices and made voters a direct offer, the Associated Press (AP) reported ⁶.

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Inflation is stopped. Incomes are up. Prices are down,

Inflation was 3% when he took office, according to AP, and it was 3.7% last month ⁶. By CNN's mid-October count, prices were up about 5.4% on average since President Biden left office ⁴.

Trump has still claimed victory. "Inflation is stopped. Incomes are up. Prices are down," he said in Iowa on Jan. 27 ⁷. He has also said he had "already stopped the inflation" ⁴.

Now: testing the 1.7% figure

Trump says he is talking about only the last three months. Measured that way, the Consumer Price Index, the government's main price gauge, rose 0.1% in July, 0.4% in August and 0.6% in September ². That adds up to about 1.1% in total, CNN found, not 1.7% ⁴. Core prices over that stretch were rising at a yearly pace of 3.4% ⁴.

There is one real piece of good news here. A separate government measure of what households spend, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, rose at a yearly pace of 2.1% in the third quarter, down from 5.0% in the second, according to a report issued the morning of the rally ³. Without food and energy, it rose 2.5% ³.

That is a real slowdown, and Trump can fairly point to it. But it is still not 1.7%. His adviser Kevin Hassett has cited a 2% yearly pace for core prices on that measure from June through August, and economist Heather Long said after the September data that she "still can't come up with 1.7%" ⁴.

The number may be an old one. In February, Trump said core inflation fell to 1.7% in the last quarter of 2025, and Breitbart found a three-month calculation that matched, though another method gave about 2.2% and October 2025 data was never published because of the shutdown ¹². In May, he applied 1.7% to overall inflation before the Iran war; CNN found that overall inflation was not 1.7% in any of those months ⁵. The White House has not confirmed where the figure comes from ⁴.

The 'worst inflation' claim

Trump also said he inherited the worst inflation in the country's history ⁴⁵. Inflation under Biden was real and painful, peaking at 9.1% in June 2022 ⁶. But it had fallen to 2.9% by December 2024, Biden's last full month, and was 3% in January 2025 ⁴.

It was not a record, either. CNN put the all-time high at 23.7%, and inflation reached 14.8% in 1980 ⁴.

Where it shows up for older Americans

That matters because Social Security's yearly raise is tied by law to the Consumer Price Index for urban wage earners and clerical workers ⁹¹⁰. On Oct. 14, the Social Security Administration announced a 3.6% cost-of-living adjustment for 2027, up from 2.8% for 2026 ⁹¹⁰. Retirement benefits will rise about $75 a month on average starting in January, for a program serving nearly 72 million beneficiaries ⁹.

The raise is based on a year-to-year comparison for July, August and September, using a version of the index for wage earners ¹⁰. So it measures something different from a three-month figure. But it shows that the government's own formula found prices well above what Trump describes.

The pain is not spread evenly. Over the past year, gasoline rose 34.2%, natural gas 5.0%, electricity 4.4% and shelter 3.2% ². Grocery prices rose 1.8% and medical care 1.5%, both below the overall rate ². Gasoline alone accounted for more than half of September's monthly increase ².

Workers have also lost ground. After adjusting for inflation, average hourly earnings fell 0.7% from September 2025 to September 2026, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics ⁸. Even an economist who has previously advised the president on the economy concedes the point on fuel ⁶.

Trump says relief will arrive once the Iran war ends ⁶. "As soon as that's over with, the oil prices will come plummeting," he told Fox Carolina before the rally ¹¹.

What Democrats are saying

Democrats have built their closing argument on the distance between the promise and the receipts. Sen. Jon Ossoff of Georgia told a rally that Republicans promised to lower prices on Day One ⁶.

People hate paying more money for gas, and the prices have gone up a lot.

House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries said in June that "the affordability crisis is very real. It's not a hoax" ¹³. Trump, for his part, has called affordability "a con job by the democrats," AP reported ⁶.

The pattern is plain. The promise was to end inflation. When prices kept rising, the claim became that the job was already done, and when the monthly numbers disagreed, the 1.7% figure stayed in the speech anyway. Voters get to weigh that claim against their own bills on Tuesday.

The Record

1. Jan 27, 2026In Iowa, Trump says, "Inflation is stopped. Incomes are up. Prices are down," as data show inflation near 3% ⁷.
2. May 12, 2026Trump claims inflation was 1.7% for the three months before the Iran war; CNN finds it was not 1.7% in any of those months ⁵.
3. Oct 14, 2026The government reports 3.7% inflation for September, and Social Security announces a 3.6% raise for 2027. Trump repeats the 1.7% claim in Montana that day ²⁴⁹.
4. Oct 29, 2026Trump repeats the 1.7% figure at a rally in Rock Hill, South Carolina, five days before the midterm election ¹¹.

Sources

1. NBC News, “Trump holds one of his last rallies before Election Day (live blog)” (2026-10-29). nbcnews.com/politics/trump-administration/live-blog/trump-ra
2. Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Consumer Price Index, September 2026” (2026-10-14). bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
3. Bureau of Economic Analysis, “GDP (Advance Estimate), 3rd Quarter 2026” (2026-10-29). bea.gov/news/2026/gdp-advance-estimate-3rd-quarter-2026
4. CNN via Yahoo News, “The White House won't even try to explain Trump's fictional inflation numbers” (2026-10-15). yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/white-house-won-t-even-2004
5. CNN via KRDO, “Fact check: Trump falsely claims the inflation rate was just 1.7% prior to the Iran war” (2026-05-13). krdo.com/news/2026/05/13/fact-check-trump-falsely-claims-the
6. AP via News4Jax, “Trump failed to stop inflation. Now Republicans may pay the price in the midterm elections” (2026-10-26). news4jax.com/news/politics/2026/10/26/trump-failed-to-stop-i
7. Reuters via Yahoo News, “In economic speeches, Trump claims inflation victory nearly 20 times even as prices bite” (2026-02-07). yahoo.com/news/articles/economic-speeches-trump-claims-infla
8. Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Real Earnings, September 2026” (2026-10-14). bls.gov/news.release/realer.nr0.htm
9. Social Security Administration, “Social Security Announces 3.6 Percent Benefit Increase for 2027” (2026-10-14). content.govdelivery.com/accounts/USSSA/bulletins/42f1c1a
10. Fox 9, “Social Security 2027 COLA increase: How much monthly checks will go up” (2026-10-14). fox9.com/news/social-security-2027-cola-increase-how-much-mo
11. Fox Carolina, “EXCLUSIVE: Pres. Trump sits down with FOX Carolina ahead at midterm rally” (2026-10-29). foxcarolina.com/2026/10/29/exclusive-pres-trump-sits-down-wi
12. Breitbart, “Fact Check: Trump Says Core Inflation Fell to 1.7% In Last Quarter of 2025” (2026-02-24). breitbart.com/economy/2026/02/24/fact-check-trump-says-core-
13. Office of the House Democratic Leader, “Leader Jeffries: Democrats Do Not Love Inflation, Donald Trump and Republicans” (2026-06-11). democraticleader.house.gov/media/press-releases/leader-jeffr

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