Democrats' Senate super PAC tells donors Texas is its best shot at a red-state flip

Senate Majority PAC, the main Democratic Senate super PAC, is telling its top donors that Texas offers the party's best chance to flip a deep-red Senate seat, Axios reported Thursday. Ohio comes next, where the race "remains close," the report said. A super PAC is a political group that can raise and spend unlimited sums on elections, as long as it does not coordinate with candidates. ¹

The message shows how Democrats are talking to their biggest backers before Election Day on Tuesday. Axios said Democrats are increasingly confident but are sharing a qualified optimism. ¹

Optimism with a caveat

The group's spokesperson, Lauren French, said the donor message matches what the group has said publicly. She did not call Texas a lock. She described it as a toss-up, along with Iowa, Ohio and Alaska. ¹

The history is steep. Texas has not elected a Democratic senator since Lloyd Bentsen in 1988. ¹

From Channel GOPTalarico: Paxton skipped the Texas Senate debateJames Talarico · 146 plays · captioned, with the source named

What the Texas numbers show

The Democratic nominee is state Rep. James Talarico. The Republican nominee is Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. ²

As of Oct. 1, the Texas Tribune's poll tracker had Talarico at 47.3% and leading by 2 points. A recent internal poll from Paxton's side showed Paxton ahead by 3 points. An internal poll is one a campaign pays for itself, and it is not an independent survey. ²

Republicans have poured money into the race. The Tribune reported that they spent about $122 million in September to support Paxton. They had also reserved about $66 million in future airtime through Election Day, according to the ad-tracking firm AdImpact. ²

Outside groups from both parties had spent more than $205 million on the general election as of Oct. 1, and over 98% of that supported Paxton. Talarico had spent $61 million of his own on ads since the general election began. ²

Nobody has a clear view

Axios says private polls and scraps of data are moving from phone to phone in Washington this week. Both parties are looking for a story to tell themselves, their candidates and their donors. ¹

Its blunt assessment is that optimists and pessimists in both parties "are flying without instruments." Big donors, it said, lack the "omniscience" to read the political landscape with the clarity they once brought to an IPO filing. ¹

That matters because the donor briefing is a signal, not a forecast. It shows where Democrats think their money and attention could pay off in the final days. It does not show who will win. Votes will settle that on Tuesday, and Axios cautioned that nobody on either side can read the race with certainty. ¹

The Record

1. Nov 8, 1988Lloyd Bentsen was the last Texan elected to the U.S. Senate as a Democrat, according to Axios ¹.
2. Oct 1, 2026The Texas Tribune's poll tracker showed Talarico at 47.3%, ahead by 2 points, while a Paxton internal poll had Paxton up 3 ².
3. Oct 29, 2026Axios reported that Senate Majority PAC is privately naming Texas, then Ohio, as Democrats' best chances to flip red Senate seats ¹.

Sources

1. Axios, “Scoop: Dems privately name Texas as most-flippable red state” (2026-10-29). axios.com/2026/10/29/democrats-texas-senate-talarico-paxton
2. The Texas Tribune, “Texas Senate race: GOP outside spending on Paxton, with Thune and Trump groups, tops Talarico” (2026-10-01). texastribune.org/2026/10/01/texas-senate-gop-outside-spendin

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