Employer health premiums forecast to jump up to 9.5% in 2027, with workers paying more

Health premiums for job-based coverage are expected to rise sharply in 2027, and workers are likely to carry more of the bill. Analysts predict increases of as much as 9.5%, though experts say the final costs may come in lower than projected ¹.

About 157 million Americans get their insurance through work ¹.

On tapeKOMO News · Nov 1

▶5:42

What workers pay now

This year, the average employer-based family plan cost $28,303, up 5% from 2025, according to an analysis by KFF, a nonprofit health policy group. Workers paid about $7,470 of that on average, which is 9% more than last year ¹.

Fifteen years ago, family coverage averaged $15,220, and workers paid about $4,190 ¹.

From Channel GOPTurek: Trump's bill costs 110,000 Iowans health careJosh Turek · 18 plays · captioned, with the source named

KFF also found that 44% of large firms offering health benefits raised employee contributions as insurance costs climbed ¹.

Many people with job-based coverage have real affordability issues

What forecasters expect for 2027

Marsh, a benefits consulting firm, forecasts that the combined employer and worker cost of health benefits per employee will rise about 8.2% in 2027. That would be the steepest jump since 2003, CBS News reported ².

On tapeABC News · Oct 27

▶3:58

Marsh says 59% of employers plan cost-cutting changes next year, such as higher deductibles. Without those steps, employers said the increase would be about 11% ². Marsh's Beth Umland said "most employees will spend more on healthcare next year" ².

An earlier Marsh survey found about two-thirds of large employers expect to raise workers' share of premiums ². Employers typically cover around 80% of plan costs, and KFF says that split has held roughly steady for about 20 years ².

Why costs keep rising

Experts told PBS News that prices are the main reason premiums are rising. Yale's Zack Cooper found insurer markups fell from about 19% in 2011 to nearly 15% in 2024, a point that can largely be ruled out as a cause of premium growth. He also found health spending accounted for 91% of premium growth between 2011 and 2024 ¹.

Hospitals and drug companies largely set their own prices. Harvard's Meredith Rosenthal said competition is the main check on those prices and "mostly does not work very well." She added that a private-market MRI costs about double what Medicare pays ¹.

Consolidation is another factor. More than 1,000 hospitals merged between 2002 and 2020, but the Federal Trade Commission took enforcement action in only 13 cases, according to a 2024 study Cooper co-authored ¹.

Weight-loss and diabetes drugs called GLP-1s are another pressure. Gallup found 11% of Americans were using one in 2026, up from 3% in 2024 ¹. Fewer than 1 in 5 companies with 200 or more workers cover them for weight loss ¹.

Fundamentally, if you want to get premiums under control, you've got to get healthcare spending under control

What happens next

These are projections, not final prices. Employers set their 2027 plans and worker contributions, and many workers learn their new costs during fall open enrollment. Cooper said GLP-1 patents begin expiring in the U.S. in 2032, but newer drugs may keep pressure on costs ¹.

That matters because health care costs are a major concern for voters ahead of the midterms. This story is about work-based coverage, but the pattern is the same one older readers know: higher prices, with the household paying more of the bill.

The Record

1. Jan 1, 2011Insurers' average markup was about 19%; by 2024 it was down to nearly 15% ¹.
2. Sep 4, 2026CBS News reported Marsh's forecast of an 8.2% rise in per-employee health benefit costs for 2027, the steepest since 2003 ².
3. Nov 2, 2026PBS News reported analysts predict employer premiums could jump as much as 9.5% in 2027 ¹.

Free to reprint Republish this story on your site or in your newsletter

Any site, blog or newsletter may run this story free of charge. Keep the credit line and its link to the original, do not sell it, and edit only for length or house style (the full terms). Photos carry their own licenses, noted under each photo on this page, so use the text alone unless a credit says otherwise.

<h2>Employer health premiums forecast to jump up to 9.5% in 2027, with workers paying more</h2> <p><em>By The GOP Files Kitchen-Table Desk. This article first appeared on <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/story/employer-health-premiums-forecast-to-jump-up-to-9-5-in-2027-with-workers-paying">The GOP Files</a> on Monday, November 2, 2026.</em></p> <p>Health premiums for job-based coverage are expected to rise sharply in 2027, and workers are likely to carry more of the bill. Analysts predict increases of as much as 9.5%, though experts say the final costs may come in lower than projected .</p> <p>About 157 million Americans get their insurance through work .</p> <h2>What workers pay now</h2> <p>This year, the average employer-based family plan cost $28,303, up 5% from 2025, according to an analysis by KFF, a nonprofit health policy group. Workers paid about $7,470 of that on average, which is 9% more than last year .</p> <p>Fifteen years ago, family coverage averaged $15,220, and workers paid about $4,190 .</p> <p>KFF also found that 44% of large firms offering health benefits raised employee contributions as insurance costs climbed .</p> <blockquote><p>Many people with job-based coverage have real affordability issues</p><p>&mdash; Matthew Rae, associate director of KFF&#39;s healthcare marketplace program</p></blockquote> <h2>What forecasters expect for 2027</h2> <p>Marsh, a benefits consulting firm, forecasts that the combined employer and worker cost of health benefits per employee will rise about 8.2% in 2027. That would be the steepest jump since 2003, CBS News reported .</p> <p>Marsh says 59% of employers plan cost-cutting changes next year, such as higher deductibles. Without those steps, employers said the increase would be about 11% . Marsh&#39;s Beth Umland said &quot;most employees will spend more on healthcare next year&quot; .</p> <p>An earlier Marsh survey found about two-thirds of large employers expect to raise workers&#39; share of premiums . Employers typically cover around 80% of plan costs, and KFF says that split has held roughly steady for about 20 years .</p> <h2>Why costs keep rising</h2> <p>Experts told PBS News that prices are the main reason premiums are rising. Yale&#39;s Zack Cooper found insurer markups fell from about 19% in 2011 to nearly 15% in 2024, a point that can largely be ruled out as a cause of premium growth. He also found health spending accounted for 91% of premium growth between 2011 and 2024 .</p> <p>Hospitals and drug companies largely set their own prices. Harvard&#39;s Meredith Rosenthal said competition is the main check on those prices and &quot;mostly does not work very well.&quot; She added that a private-market MRI costs about double what Medicare pays .</p> <p>Consolidation is another factor. More than 1,000 hospitals merged between 2002 and 2020, but the Federal Trade Commission took enforcement action in only 13 cases, according to a 2024 study Cooper co-authored .</p> <p>Weight-loss and diabetes drugs called GLP-1s are another pressure. Gallup found 11% of Americans were using one in 2026, up from 3% in 2024 . Fewer than 1 in 5 companies with 200 or more workers cover them for weight loss .</p> <blockquote><p>Fundamentally, if you want to get premiums under control, you&#39;ve got to get healthcare spending under control</p><p>&mdash; Zack Cooper, associate professor of public health and economics, Yale University</p></blockquote> <h2>What happens next</h2> <p>These are projections, not final prices. Employers set their 2027 plans and worker contributions, and many workers learn their new costs during fall open enrollment. Cooper said GLP-1 patents begin expiring in the U.S. in 2032, but newer drugs may keep pressure on costs .</p> <p>That matters because health care costs are a major concern for voters ahead of the midterms. This story is about work-based coverage, but the pattern is the same one older readers know: higher prices, with the household paying more of the bill.</p> <p><em>Read the original, with every source linked, at <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/story/employer-health-premiums-forecast-to-jump-up-to-9-5-in-2027-with-workers-paying">thegopfiles.com</a>. Republished under The GOP Files' <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/republish">free republishing terms</a>.</em></p> <img src="https://thegopfiles.com/api/rp/employer-health-premiums-forecast-to-jump-up-to-9-5-in-2027-with-workers-paying.gif" alt="" width="1" height="1" style="border:0;width:1px;height:1px">

Copy the HTML Paste it into your editor's HTML view. The one-pixel image at the end tells our newsroom the story ran; it stores no reader data.

Sources

1. PBS NewsHour, “Why health insurance premiums are rising, according to experts” (2026-11-02). pbs.org/newshour/nation/why-health-insurance-premiums-are-ri
2. CBS News, “Employer and worker health plan costs expected to jump in 2027” (2026-09-04). cbsnews.com/news/employer-health-care-costs-increase-2027/

Found an error? Tell the newsroom. Corrections are noted at the top of the story.