Midterms 2026 · Report · File No. 261030-728
Five days out, Democrats lead the House race, but the Senate is tight and polls can miss
Forecasts and polls favor Democrats nationally, yet both parties face real risks on Tuesday. Trump's low approval hurts Republicans, while Senate races and Republican-drawn maps could blunt a Democratic win.
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Five days before the November 3 midterm election, Democrats lead in national polls and forecasts. Their lead is not a sure thing, though. Both parties have warning signs to watch on Tuesday night.
Democrats lead nationally
Democrats lead 51.4% to 43.2% in RealClearPolling's national average, an 8.2-point gap 1. Silver Bulletin, Nate Silver's polling site, puts the Democratic lead on the generic ballot at nearly 9 points. That is the question that asks voters which party they will back for Congress. Yahoo News reports the margin has held for about a month 2.
Democrats need a net gain of three House seats to take control 2. Ten days ago, the Silver Bulletin forecast gave Democrats a 95% chance of winning the House 3.
President Trump's approval is weak. Silver Bulletin puts his net approval at minus 22.8 points, near his lowest ever. On the cost of living, 70% disapprove and 25% approve 2.
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The Senate is closer
Republicans hold 53 Senate seats. Democrats hold 47, counting two independents who vote with them. Democrats need a net gain of four to reach 51 12.
Yahoo News says Democrats are "now favored to flip the Senate" but adds "unless the polls are wrong" 2. Forecasts differ. As of October 23, Silver Bulletin gave Democrats a 76.4% chance, VoteHub gave them 60%, and Decision Desk HQ gave them 57% 3.
Several Republican-held seats are close. Yahoo News lists Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton in Texas in nearly every fall poll, by 2 to 6 points. It also lists Democrat Sherrod Brown ahead or tied in Ohio against Republican Jon Husted, and Democrat Mary Peltola ahead in Alaska 2. In Iowa, the lead has changed hands between the candidates 2.
Warning signs for Democrats
Polls are not predictions. Yahoo News calls them "momentary snapshots of public opinion" 2. Newsweek warns that "small polling errors, turnout differences or late movement could still change" the winners and the Senate result 3.
Republican-led states have also redrawn House maps in the South, which could offset some Democratic gains 2. Newsweek calls Texas a toss-up, not a secure Democratic gain 3. In Maine, the Democrats' first nominee was replaced after a scandal, and Troy Jackson is now the nominee 2.
Warning signs for Republicans
Yahoo News compares this year to 2018, when Republicans lost 41 House seats 2. Newsweek says the backlash "may extend beyond the House" and could threaten the GOP's "fragile 53–47 Senate majority" 3.
Al Jazeera reports that some of Trump's own voters are frustrated by fuel prices, rents and mortgage costs. It also reports that 21% of registered rural voters had cast ballots, against 24% in metropolitan areas. That gap worries Republicans 1.
Democratic strategist Joel Rubin said voters want to put a check on President Trump's power 1.
What happens next
Polls close Tuesday. Trump is scheduled to campaign in South Carolina on Thursday, Florida on Friday and Kansas on Saturday 1. Close Senate races could take days to settle.
That matters because a lead in the polls is not a result. The pattern this year is a clear Democratic edge for the House and a narrower path in the Senate. Turnout will decide both.
The Record
Sources
- Al Jazeera, “US midterms: Five days to go” (2026-10-29). aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/29/us-midterms-five-days-to-go-wh
- Yahoo News, “The 2026 midterms are just 5 days away. Which party has a better chance of winning? Here's what the latest polls say.” (2026-10-29). yahoo.com/news/politics/article/the-2026-midterms-are-next-w
- Newsweek, “Who Will Win the Midterms? What Polls Show 10 Days Out” (2026-10-23). newsweek.com/who-will-win-the-midterms-what-polls-show-10-da
Found an error? Tell the newsroom. Corrections are noted at the top of the story.
More from the files
Trump is underwater in 39 states and every battleground a week before the midterms
A Civiqs tracker finds 34% of registered voters approve of Trump and 60% disapprove. That is the backdrop for Republicans in the Senate races as control of Congress is at stake on November 3.
Senate Republicans privately see Ohio slipping and Alaska, Kansas grim six days out
Half a dozen senior GOP operatives told Axios they struggle to see a Senate majority larger than 51 seats. Republicans are fighting Democratic enthusiasm on one front and their own voters' apathy on the other.
Inside Elections moves nine Senate races toward Democrats as Silver cites strong polls
Inside Elections moved nine Senate races toward Democrats on Thursday, four days before the vote. Nate Silver says polls no longer show the chamber as too close to call.
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