Inside Elections moves nine Senate races toward Democrats as Silver cites strong polls

Inside Elections, a nonpartisan political forecaster, changed its rating on nine Senate races on Thursday. Every change favored Democrats ¹. The races are in Georgia, Ohio, Texas, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, South Carolina, Louisiana and Mississippi ¹.

The shifts came as election analyst Nate Silver pointed to a run of Democratic poll results. The midterm election is Tuesday, November 3 ¹.

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What Silver said

Silver pointed to very strong polls for Democrats in individual Senate races over the past couple of days. He said polls can be wrong and that models, probabilities and markets exist for that reason, but that the race is past the point where it can honestly be called too close to call ¹.

Silver's own forecast, the Silver Bulletin, gives Democrats a 77.7 percent chance of regaining control of the Senate ¹. It also warns that Texas, Ohio, Alaska and Maine "are all just a normal-sized polling error away from flipping" ¹.

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On the betting sites Kalshi and Polymarket, Democrats hold a double-digit lead for Senate control after the midterms ¹.

Not every forecaster agrees yet

Cook Political Report, another top forecaster, is more cautious. It rates Georgia as likely Democratic. It calls Ohio, Texas, Kansas and Iowa toss-ups ¹.

Cook has South Carolina as lean Republican and Nebraska and Mississippi as likely Republican. It still lists Louisiana as solid Republican ¹. So the forecasters differ on how far the map has moved.

Inside Elections had already been moving in this direction. On October 20 it shifted 30 races toward Democrats, including five Senate races, 22 House races and three gubernatorial races ². It projected a Democratic gain of three to five Senate seats ².

Inside Elections analyst Nathan L. Gonzales, writing in Roll Call, said Republicans are having particular difficulty defending open seats ².

The political backdrop

The president's party has historically lost seats in midterm elections ¹. President Donald Trump's approval rating has slipped, as have his ratings on the economy, immigration, jobs and the Iran war. Households keep raising affordability worries ¹.

Trump has traveled the country to rally for vulnerable Republicans. Vice President JD Vance and Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. are also campaigning in tight races ¹.

What happens next

Voters decide on Tuesday. Silver himself cautioned that polls can be wrong, which is why forecasters use models and probabilities ¹.

That matters because the Senate confirms judges and Cabinet officials, and it votes on spending bills. A change in control would shift what Republicans can pass and approve over the next two years. The pattern in these ratings is that the race for the Senate has been getting tighter for Republicans, not easier.

Ratings are forecasts, not results. A shift on a forecaster's chart does not count as a vote. Only turnout on November 3 will settle which party controls the Senate.

The Record

1. Oct 20, 2026Inside Elections moved 30 races toward Democrats, including five Senate races, 22 House races and three gubernatorial races, and projected a Democratic gain of three to five seats ².
2. Oct 29, 2026Inside Elections shifted nine Senate races toward Democrats as Nate Silver cited strong Democratic polls ¹.
3. Nov 3, 2026Election Day for the 2026 midterms ¹.

Sources

1. Newsweek, “Forecaster Shifts 9 Senate Races as Nate Silver Touts Democratic Polling” (2026-10-30). newsweek.com/forecaster-shifts-9-senate-races-as-nate-silver
2. Roll Call, “Inside Elections rating changes favor Democrats” (2026-10-20). rollcall.com/2026/10/20/rating-changes-democrats-inside-elec

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