Hinojosa bets on Hispanic men in Texas governor race with three days left

With three days until the midterm election, Texas Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gina Hinojosa is making a late play for Hispanic men, a group her party lost badly two years ago ¹².

Her campaign says a new ad contrasts her proposals to protect public schools, restrict data center expansion and lower taxes with what she argues is three-term Republican Gov. Greg Abbott's favoritism toward wealthy donors and large corporations ¹².

The approach echoes Democrat Ruben Gallego's 2024 Senate campaign in Arizona, which reached Latino men through boxing watch parties, rodeos and cookouts. Gallego defeated Republican Kari Lake and became Arizona's first Latino U.S. senator, even as Trump carried the state by nearly six percentage points ¹².

Abbott is competing for the same voters. His campaign launched a Spanish-language ad casting Hinojosa as too socially liberal, and press secretary Eduardo Leal said last week that her policies do not match "the values of the Hispanic community" ¹². Abbott has also highlighted that his wife Cecilia is the state's first Hispanic first lady ¹².

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Hispanics make up around 40% of Texas' population ¹². A CBS News poll earlier this month showed Abbott leading Hinojosa by four points outright, with a 3.4-point margin of error, while Hinojosa led by 23 points among likely Hispanic voters ¹².

But the bloc is increasingly a swing electorate. Some 55% of Latino Texans voted for Trump in 2024, according to CBS News exit poll data, and Latino men favored him by nearly two to one ¹². That shift turned once-reliably Democratic counties in the Rio Grande Valley into GOP-leaning territory ¹².

What Hinojosa and her allies say

Hinojosa offered her own explanation for Trump's 2024 success with Hispanic voters, saying his message resonated with Texans who felt the political establishment had failed them ¹².

The reason why Trump won, and why he was able to capture the Latino vote in the Valley and in Texas, is because he said the system is rigged — and he's right. Democrats had been defending a system that is indefensible, that is actually working against us

Chuck Rocha, a Democratic strategist and CBS News political contributor who advised Gallego and now advises Hinojosa and Texas Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico, said many Hispanic voters are frustrated by high gas prices and other cost-of-living worries, as well as by Trump's immigration policies ¹².

Right now, they're more monolithic than I have ever seen in my life, and they're monolithically mad

The Republican side

Daniel Garza, president of the conservative Latino advocacy group LIBRE Initiative, said he sees no Democratic enthusiasm in his home region of South Texas ¹².

I think most voters couldn't tell you what the Democrat plan is for bringing down prices

Democrats are hopeful the 2024 shift is temporary. Nationwide polling shows many Latino voters have turned away from Trump since 2024, and Texas Democratic strategists point to high turnout in heavily Latino areas during this year's Democratic primary ¹².

That matters because Texas has not elected a Democratic governor in over three decades, and Hispanic voters are central to Hinojosa's bid to become the first in that time ¹². The pattern is familiar: both parties are spending the final weekend courting the same voters with sharply different messages about prices, schools and values ¹².

The Record

1. Nov 5, 2024Some 55% of Latino Texans voted for Trump in 2024, and Latino men favored him by nearly two to one, according to CBS News exit poll data ¹².
2. Oct 31, 2026Hinojosa's campaign is running a boxing-themed ad aimed at Hispanic men in the final days before the election ¹².

Sources

1. CBS News, “As Texas Dems predict a Hispanic wave, Hinojosa takes her pitch ringside” (2026-10-31). cbsnews.com/news/texas-hinojosa-abbott-boxing-ad-latino-vote
2. WGHN, “As Texas Dems predict a Hispanic wave, Hinojosa takes her pitch ringside | WGHN” (2026-10-31). wghn.com/2026/10/31/as-texas-dems-predict-a-hispanic-wave-hi

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