Alabama GOP redrew Rep. Figures' seat to win it. One forecaster now calls it a toss-up

Alabama Republicans redrew the state's 2nd Congressional District this year after the Supreme Court weakened the Voting Rights Act, the federal law that protects minority voting power. The new lines lower the Black share of voting-age residents in Democratic Rep. Shomari Figures' district from 48% to 40%, and President Trump carried the area in the new district by 14 percentage points two years ago ¹.

Three days before Tuesday's election, the race looks closer than those numbers suggest. Sabato's Crystal Ball, the University of Virginia forecast, moved it from leaning Republican to toss-up this week ³⁴. The Cook Political Report still gives Republicans an edge, but it moved the race from likely Republican to lean Republican the Friday before ².

That matters because House control could turn on seats like this one. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, who campaigned for Republican state Rep. Rhett Marques in Dothan, said the district is one of about three dozen swing seats that will decide who runs Congress ¹.

This seat absolutely will have a larger say on the direction of the country.

How the map changed

Figures won in 2024 by 9.2 percentage points under a court-ordered map ⁴. A federal court had ordered new districts after ruling that the Legislature unlawfully diluted Black residents' voting power. The AP notes the district was never drawn as majority Black, but was split about evenly between Black and white voters ¹.

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In April, the Supreme Court struck down a majority-Black House district in Louisiana, a ruling that significantly weakened a key provision of the Voting Rights Act ⁵. On May 11, the justices overturned the order keeping Alabama's court-imposed map in place until after the 2030 census. Justice Sonia Sotomayor argued in dissent that a lower court could still find intentional discrimination against Black voters under the 14th Amendment ⁵.

On June 2, the court allowed Alabama to use its Republican-drawn map, with Sotomayor again dissenting, joined by Justices Ketanji Brown Jackson and Elena Kagan ⁶. Federal courts had previously struck down that 2023 map as racially discriminatory ³. The new 2nd District no longer includes Mobile ⁹.

Alabama is 27% Black and has seven House seats. Figures' election gave the state two Black members of Congress for the first time, alongside Rep. Terri Sewell ¹⁶. Marques, endorsed by Trump, won the Aug. 11 special Republican primary with more than half the vote in a six-candidate field ³⁹.

We know that the deck has been stacked.

Voters who remember the fight for the ballot

For some older Black voters, the map is personal. Francis Fanning, a retired substitute teacher in Montgomery, told the AP, "I'm 75, and history is repeating itself" ¹. Sheyann Webb-Christburg was 8 years old in 1965, when she was among the voting rights marchers attacked in Selma ¹.

Much blood, sweat and tears was shed in an effort for African Americans to gain their right to vote

Figures is trying to maximize Democratic turnout while also persuading conservative and independent voters ¹. "Even though they are changing district lines, we still have the right to show up and make our voices heard," he said ¹. Montgomery County's turnout in the May 19 primary ran about 7 points above the state average ².

Capital B News reports that Black early voting has risen in North Carolina and Georgia, and that Black turnout in Louisiana has reportedly reached historic levels ⁷. That report gives no comparable early-vote figure for Alabama, so the effect on this race is still unknown.

Prices, gas taxes and hospitals

Figures is closing on the cost of living. He points to gas at $4 a gallon, ground beef at $8 and high fertilizer costs for farmers, and he cites a median individual income in Alabama of $34,000 ¹. He also ties prices directly to Washington ³.

Republicans have to answer for why they are supporting reckless tariffs and a war that are driving up gas and diesel prices

Marques acknowledges that voters are worried about affordability, but blames the Biden administration ¹. He says he has cut $1.5 billion in taxes ⁴. Figures, in turn, attacks Marques' 2019 vote to raise the state gas tax, a measure that had broad support in the Legislature ³.

Figures also says people in the district struggle to reach hospitals and health care ¹. He says he helped keep Jackson Hospital in Montgomery open by bringing state, local, insurer and hospital officials together, and that he has brought home nearly $20 million for rural hospitals, affordable homes, law enforcement and more ³. Those are his own claims, and the Alabama Reflector did not independently verify the dollar figure ³.

The national backdrop is the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act, the Republican tax and spending law. The health policy group KFF estimated it would reduce federal funding for Medicaid, the health coverage program for low-income Americans, by $137 billion over 10 years in rural areas. The law's rural health fund provides $50 billion over five years ⁸.

The Republican answer

Marques frames the contest as "craziness versus common sense" ². "We have an opportunity to not only flip a seat from Democrat back to Republican here in Alabama," he told supporters, according to the AP ¹. He also told the Alabama Political Reporter, "This race is between Shomari’s crazy socialist party and my commonsense record." ⁴

Trump renewed his endorsement of Marques on Monday and called Figures "Reckless, Radical, and Dangerous!" ². Figures has distanced himself from the socialist label ². On the ratings shift, he said, "This race has been competitive and winnable since the moment we got in it" ⁴.

One of Marques' own supporters raised a concern about turnout. Henry County Sheriff Eric Blankenship said of the national mood, "I don't think they're as motivated," while adding that "deep down the Republican core is still there" ².

What the money and polls do and don't show

TV ad spending in the district went from almost nothing to nearly $10 million in seven weeks, according to the ad tracking firm AdImpact, and the AP reports Democratic groups are outspending Republicans ¹. Federal filings through Oct. 14 point the other way on outside money, with nearly $4.9 million for Marques or against Figures and more than $1.9 million on the other side ³. Those are different counts covering different periods.

Figures raised $2.7 million through Oct. 14 and had $1.2 million on hand, compared with $1.7 million raised and $178,000 on hand for Marques ³. The Alabama Political Reporter says several polls show him gaining momentum, but it gives no numbers, and neither the AP nor the Reflector reports any public poll results ¹³⁴. Readers should treat claims of momentum with care.

The pattern is worth watching beyond Alabama. Republicans used a Supreme Court ruling to make this seat harder for a Democrat to hold. Whether that is enough now depends on who votes on Tuesday ².

The Record

1. May 11, 2026The Supreme Court overturned the order keeping Alabama's court-imposed House map in place until after the 2030 census, with Justice Sotomayor dissenting ⁵.
2. Jun 2, 2026The Supreme Court allowed Alabama to use its Republican-drawn map, over a dissent by Justices Sotomayor, Jackson and Kagan ⁶.
3. Aug 11, 2026Rhett Marques, backed by Trump, won the special Republican primary in the redrawn 2nd District ³⁹.
4. Oct 26, 2026Trump renewed his endorsement of Marques and attacked Figures in a social media post ².
5. Oct 27, 2026Sabato's Crystal Ball moved the race to toss-up, after Cook had shifted it from likely Republican to lean Republican the previous Friday ²³.

Sources

1. AP via KTAR, “Alabama Republicans thought they had drawn a safe US House seat. A Black congressman had other ideas” (2026-10-31). ktar.com/national-news/alabama-republicans-thought-they-had-
2. Alabama Daily News, “Alabama's 2nd District race tightens as Figures, Marques make closing pitches on the trail” (2026-10-28). aldailynews.com/alabamas-2nd-district-race-tightens-as-figur
3. Alabama Reflector via Yahoo News, “Figures, Marques vie for Alabama's most competitive congressional district” (2026-10-28). yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/figures-marques-vie-alabama
4. Alabama Political Reporter, “Alabama's 2nd District race shifts to toss-up” (2026-10-29). alreporter.com/2026/10/29/alabamas-2nd-district-race-shifts-
5. AP via PBS NewsHour, “Supreme Court halts order on Alabama's U.S. House map, giving GOP an opening to gain seat” (2026-05-12). pbs.org/newshour/politics/supreme-court-halts-order-on-alaba
6. TheGrio via Yahoo News, “Supreme Court allows Alabama Republicans to use map that eliminates majority-Black district” (2026-06-03). yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/supreme-court-allows-alabam
7. Capital B News via Yahoo News, “Rising Black Voter Turnout Tests the Power of Redistricting in the Midterms” (2026-10-29). yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/rising-black-voter-turnout-
8. FactCheck.org, “Midterm Ads Clash Over GOP Law's Impact on Rural Healthcare” (2026-09-17). factcheck.org/2026/09/midterm-ads-clash-over-gop-laws-impact
9. CBS News, “Trump-backed candidate wins crowded GOP primary in Alabama's newly drawn 2nd District, AP projects” (2026-08-11). cbsnews.com/news/alabama-2nd-district-gop-primary-results-ra

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