NYT/Siena poll has Ricketts up 6 points on Osborn in Nebraska Senate race

A New York Times/Siena poll released Saturday shows Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts at 49% and independent Dan Osborn at 43%, three days before the vote. Other recent polls were closer, so the race is not settled.

By the Campaign Desk · Saturday, October 31, 2026, 10:13 AM ET · 2 min read

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A new New York Times/Siena poll of likely Nebraska voters has Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts ahead of independent Dan Osborn, 49% to 43% ¹². Siena posted the results on Saturday, Oct. 31, three days before the Tuesday, Nov. 3 election ¹.

Siena's own results page did not list fieldwork dates, sample size or margin of error ¹.

That margin matters. A 6-point lead with a 4-point margin of error is a real lead for Ricketts, but not a safe one. Polls can miss, and the margin applies to each candidate's number, not just to the gap between them.

Other polls were closer

Not every recent survey agrees. A YouGov poll reported Oct. 6 had Osborn at 48% and Ricketts at 47% among likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 points ³.

From Channel GOPNavy veteran Osborn: no plan in IranDan Osborn · 138 plays · captioned, with the source named

The new poll is the latest to be released. It is also a sign that the race has tightened in a state that is normally safely Republican.

The candidates

Ricketts is seeking his first full term. He won the 2024 special election by more than 24 points over Democrat Preston Love Jr., and President Trump has endorsed him ².

Osborn is a former president of a local union of the Bakery, Confectionery, Tobacco Workers and Grain Millers International Union. He lost to Republican Sen. Deb Fischer in 2024 by fewer than seven points ². The Nebraska Democratic Party supports his candidacy ².

What happens next

Voters in Nebraska and across the country decide on Tuesday, Nov. 3. The Siena poll is a snapshot of Oct. 23 to 29, not a forecast of the result ².

The Siena results page lists toplines and crosstabs ¹. We did not review those, so we cannot say how the poll broke down by age, region or party ¹.

Republicans hold the Senate, and every seat matters to who controls it next year. A close race in Nebraska shows Republicans are defending ground in states they usually win easily.

The Record

Nov 5, 2024Osborn, running as an independent, lost to Sen. Deb Fischer by fewer than seven points ².
Oct 6, 2026A YouGov poll reported by Political Wire had Osborn at 48% and Ricketts at 47% among likely voters ³.
Oct 31, 2026The NYT/Siena poll of likely Nebraska voters was posted with Ricketts at 49% and Osborn at 43% ¹².

Sources

Siena Research Institute, “NYTimes/Siena Poll of Likely Nebraska Voters” (2026-10-31). sri.siena.edu/2026/10/31/nytimes-siena-poll-of-likely-nebras
Wikipedia, “2026 United States Senate election in Nebraska” (2026-10-31). en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_
Political Wire, “Osborn Edges Ricketts in Nebraska Senate Race” (2026-10-06). politicalwire.com/2026/10/06/osborn-edges-ricketts-in-nebras

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