Trump's standing among white evangelicals slips in Pew and Reuters/Ipsos polls

Trump's standing among white evangelical Protestants, one of the Republican Party's most loyal groups, has dropped sharply since he returned to office. A Reuters/Ipsos poll found his support fell to 63% in October from 77% in January 2025 ². A Pew Research Center survey taken Sept. 28 to Oct. 4 put his approval in the group at 58%, down from 78% in early 2025 ³.

The midterm elections are Tuesday, Nov. 3.

On tapeReuters · Oct 22

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What the polls found

In the Reuters/Ipsos poll, Trump's support among all Americans fell from 47% to 31% over the same stretch ². White evangelicals were the only major group the pollsters track where his support stayed above 60% ². Their drop of 14 points was slightly smaller than the 16-point drop among Americans overall ¹.

Pew found 58% of white evangelical Protestants approve of Trump's job performance and 40% disapprove ³. They are the only religious group Pew surveyed in which more people approve than disapprove ³. Pew's earlier readings in the group were 72% in September 2025, 69% in January 2026 and 64% in July 2026 ³.

From Channel GOPTrump on the Alaska ballot and the DOJ suitDonald Trump · 225 plays · captioned, with the source named

Still a Republican stronghold

The drop does not mean the group is turning toward Democrats. Pew found 73% of white evangelical Protestant registered voters would back the Republican House candidate in their district, and 12% would back the Democrat ³. That 61-point Republican edge was the largest of any religious group Pew examined ³.

White evangelicals are about 13% of U.S. adults but made up nearly a third of Trump's winning 2024 coalition, according to a Public Religion Research Institute survey and a Pew analysis of verified voters ². Pew reports that more than 80% of them voted for Trump in each of his three presidential campaigns ².

On tapeReuters · Oct 22

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Voices from the pews and the campaign

Reuters interviewed 15 people at two South Carolina churches. Two were considering Democrat Annie Andrews for Senate, and none said they were abandoning Trump ². One voter, Kevin Thomas, 53, said he was leaning toward "holding my nose and voting for Graham," the Republican candidate ².

Andrews said voters were chiefly worried about the economy ². Robert P. Jones, president of the Public Religion Research Institute, said evangelicals have made a "grand bargain" since 2016, overlooking Trump's personal conduct in return for policies on abortion, LGBTQ rights and immigration ².

They're struggling with the cost of everything. That's why I'm running,

That has proven to be more powerful for this group than what they're having to pay at the gas pump,

What happens next

It is unclear whether the shift in attitudes will affect conservative turnout, since Trump is not on the ballot ¹. Evangelical voters could matter in Senate races in Iowa, Kansas and Texas, where Republicans are trying to hold their majority ¹.

That matters because small changes in a large, reliable bloc can decide close races. Even a modest dip in enthusiasm, or a few voters staying home, could be felt in states where margins are thin. The polls measure approval of Trump, not how people will vote, and the gap between the two is the open question.

The Record

1. Jan 20, 2025Reuters/Ipsos measured Trump's support among white evangelicals at 77% around his second inauguration ².
2. Oct 4, 2026Pew finished a survey finding 58% of white evangelical Protestants approve of Trump, down from 78% in early 2025 ³.
3. Oct 22, 2026Reuters reported the Reuters/Ipsos reading at 63%, with Trump's overall support at 31% ².

Sources

1. Al Jazeera, “White evangelical support for Trump slips but still strong as midterms near” (2026-10-22). aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/22/white-evangelical-support-for-
2. Reuters, “As Trump's support slips, white evangelicals remain his Republican bedrock” (2026-10-22). lufkindailynews.com/news_reuters/national/as-trumps-support-
3. Pew Research Center, “Religious groups differ widely in their 2026 midterm preferences” (2026-10-13). pewresearch.org/short-reads/2026/10/13/religious-groups-diff

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