Medicare drug plan premiums projected to jump 50% after Trump team ended subsidy

Millions of older Americans who buy stand-alone Medicare drug coverage could see their monthly premiums rise by half next year, according to a new analysis from KFF, a nonpartisan health research group. KFF projects that the average premium for a stand-alone Part D drug plan will go from $34 a month in 2026 to $51 in 2027 if people stay in the plan they have now ²³.

The increase follows the Trump administration's decision this summer to end a federal subsidy that had held those premiums down. The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS), the agency that runs Medicare, announced on July 28 that the program would end after 2026 ⁴. Healthcare Dive reported the KFF findings on Monday, Nov. 2 ¹.

The timing matters because the deadline is close. Medicare open enrollment, the yearly period when people can switch plans, ends Dec. 7 ³⁵.

What KFF found

Part D is Medicare's prescription drug benefit. You can get it through a stand-alone plan that works alongside traditional Medicare, or as part of a Medicare Advantage plan run by a private insurer. About 25 million seniors get their drug coverage through stand-alone plans ¹.

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KFF studied 13.6 million stand-alone plan members who do not get Extra Help, the federal subsidy for people with low incomes. If they keep their current plans, 10.4 million of them, or 76%, would pay more in 2027. About 2.4 million would pay more than $50 a month extra ².

Zero-premium plans are going away. For people without Extra Help, no stand-alone plan will have a $0 monthly premium in 2027, and that affects more than 4 million people enrolled in such plans now ³. About 3.9 million members, nearly 30%, would pay $100 or more a month. In 2026, 20% paid that much ².

The largest increase among national plans is in AARP Medicare Rx Preferred, a plan sold by UnitedHealthcare ⁶. KFF projects its premium will go from $126.00 to $204.50 a month. The cheapest national plan, Wellcare Value Script Rx, is projected at $6.50 ³. The highest deductible a plan may charge rises from $615 to $700 ². The yearly cap on out-of-pocket drug costs rises from $2,100 to $2,400 ⁶.

With some plans increasing premiums substantially, the stakes are higher this year for people with Medicare stand-alone drug coverage if they sit on the sidelines during open enrollment

The subsidy the administration ended

The program was called the Part D Premium Stabilization Demonstration. CMS set it up in 2024 as the Inflation Reduction Act's changes to drug coverage took effect. The Inflation Reduction Act is the 2022 law that capped what seniors pay out of pocket for drugs. CMS had said the program could last at least three years ⁴. It lowered the base premium and limited how much a plan's premium could rise in one year: $35 in 2025 and $50 in 2026 ⁴.

The program did what it was meant to do. The Medicare Payment Advisory Commission (MedPAC), which advises Congress, found it lowered the average stand-alone premium by $26 a month in 2025 and $16 in 2026. KFF put its cost at $9.8 billion over the two years ⁴. In ending it, CMS said insurers had gained "sufficient experience" to set prices without the help ⁴.

In September, CMS projected that the average stand-alone premium would go from $35.09 to just $36, a rise of less than $1 ⁵. KFF says CMS did not explain how it got that number. KFF also says the real 2027 average will likely come in below $51 once people switch plans ². Last year, KFF projected $44 and the actual average was $34 ¹.

By slashing handouts to big insurance companies, CMS is keeping premiums stable

Democrats pushed to keep it

On Aug. 4, Rep. Chris Pappas (D-N.H.) wrote to CMS Administrator Mehmet Oz asking him to bring the program back. He warned that ending it would shift costs onto the beneficiaries least able to afford them ⁷. KFF's 76% figure is close to that warning ².

On Sept. 14, Reps. Terri Sewell (D-Ala.) and Kathy Castor (D-Fla.) introduced the Affordable Premiums for Seniors Act, H.R. 10374. It would keep the program running through 2029, and after that unless the government finds that ending it would not raise premiums ⁸⁹. The bill was sent to the House Energy and Commerce and Ways and Means committees ⁹. Sewell's office says MedPAC found the program saved seniors $312 on average in 2026 ⁸.

Seniors worked hard for their earned Medicare benefits, and I am fighting to keep those benefits affordable and dependable.

Why it matters on Election Day

Analysis: Oz describes the subsidy as money for insurers. But the numbers show who ends up paying once it is gone: the people who buy stand-alone plans. KFF found that stand-alone drug premiums will be more than five times higher than drug premiums in Medicare Advantage plans next year, $51 versus $9 ².

The fight is also on Tuesday's ballot. Pappas, who led the August letter, is running for an open U.S. Senate seat in New Hampshire against Republican John Sununu ¹⁰. Whoever controls the next Congress will decide whether bills like Sewell and Castor's get a vote.

What to do now: look at your plan's annual notice of change, then compare options with the Medicare Plan Finder or by calling 1-800-MEDICARE, which is open 24 hours a day. Your State Health Insurance Assistance Program (SHIP) gives free counseling.

The Record

1. Jul 28, 2026CMS announces it will end the Part D Premium Stabilization Demonstration after 2026, a year earlier than it had said the program could run ⁴
2. Aug 4, 2026Rep. Chris Pappas asks CMS Administrator Mehmet Oz to reinstate the program ⁷
3. Sep 14, 2026Reps. Terri Sewell and Kathy Castor introduce the Affordable Premiums for Seniors Act, H.R. 10374, to extend the program through 2029 ⁸⁹
4. Sep 28, 2026CMS projects the average stand-alone Part D premium will rise less than $1, from $35.09 to $36 ⁵
5. Oct 30, 2026KFF projects the average stand-alone premium will rise 50%, from $34 to $51, for people who keep their plans ³

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<h2>Medicare drug plan premiums projected to jump 50% after Trump team ended subsidy</h2> <p><em>By The GOP Files Kitchen-Table Desk. This article first appeared on <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/story/medicare-drug-plan-premiums-projected-to-jump-50-after-trump-team-ended-subsidy">The GOP Files</a> on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.</em></p> <p>Millions of older Americans who buy stand-alone Medicare drug coverage could see their monthly premiums rise by half next year, according to a new analysis from KFF, a nonpartisan health research group. KFF projects that the average premium for a stand-alone Part D drug plan will go from $34 a month in 2026 to $51 in 2027 if people stay in the plan they have now .</p> <p>The increase follows the Trump administration&#39;s decision this summer to end a federal subsidy that had held those premiums down. The Centers for Medicare &amp; Medicaid Services (CMS), the agency that runs Medicare, announced on July 28 that the program would end after 2026 . Healthcare Dive reported the KFF findings on Monday, Nov. 2 .</p> <p>The timing matters because the deadline is close. Medicare open enrollment, the yearly period when people can switch plans, ends Dec. 7 .</p> <h2>What KFF found</h2> <p>Part D is Medicare&#39;s prescription drug benefit. You can get it through a stand-alone plan that works alongside traditional Medicare, or as part of a Medicare Advantage plan run by a private insurer. About 25 million seniors get their drug coverage through stand-alone plans .</p> <p>KFF studied 13.6 million stand-alone plan members who do not get Extra Help, the federal subsidy for people with low incomes. If they keep their current plans, 10.4 million of them, or 76%, would pay more in 2027. About 2.4 million would pay more than $50 a month extra .</p> <p>Zero-premium plans are going away. For people without Extra Help, no stand-alone plan will have a $0 monthly premium in 2027, and that affects more than 4 million people enrolled in such plans now . About 3.9 million members, nearly 30%, would pay $100 or more a month. In 2026, 20% paid that much .</p> <p>The largest increase among national plans is in AARP Medicare Rx Preferred, a plan sold by UnitedHealthcare . KFF projects its premium will go from $126.00 to $204.50 a month. The cheapest national plan, Wellcare Value Script Rx, is projected at $6.50 . The highest deductible a plan may charge rises from $615 to $700 . The yearly cap on out-of-pocket drug costs rises from $2,100 to $2,400 .</p> <blockquote><p>With some plans increasing premiums substantially, the stakes are higher this year for people with Medicare stand-alone drug coverage if they sit on the sidelines during open enrollment</p><p>&mdash; Juliette Cubanski, Vice president and director of KFF&#39;s Program on Medicare Policy</p></blockquote> <h2>The subsidy the administration ended</h2> <p>The program was called the Part D Premium Stabilization Demonstration. CMS set it up in 2024 as the Inflation Reduction Act&#39;s changes to drug coverage took effect. The Inflation Reduction Act is the 2022 law that capped what seniors pay out of pocket for drugs. CMS had said the program could last at least three years . It lowered the base premium and limited how much a plan&#39;s premium could rise in one year: $35 in 2025 and $50 in 2026 .</p> <p>The program did what it was meant to do. The Medicare Payment Advisory Commission (MedPAC), which advises Congress, found it lowered the average stand-alone premium by $26 a month in 2025 and $16 in 2026. KFF put its cost at $9.8 billion over the two years . In ending it, CMS said insurers had gained &quot;sufficient experience&quot; to set prices without the help .</p> <p>In September, CMS projected that the average stand-alone premium would go from $35.09 to just $36, a rise of less than $1 . KFF says CMS did not explain how it got that number. KFF also says the real 2027 average will likely come in below $51 once people switch plans . Last year, KFF projected $44 and the actual average was $34 .</p> <blockquote><p>By slashing handouts to big insurance companies, CMS is keeping premiums stable</p><p>&mdash; Mehmet Oz, Administrator, Centers for Medicare &amp; Medicaid Services (Trump appointee)</p></blockquote> <h2>Democrats pushed to keep it</h2> <p>On Aug. 4, Rep. Chris Pappas (D-N.H.) wrote to CMS Administrator Mehmet Oz asking him to bring the program back. He warned that ending it would shift costs onto the beneficiaries least able to afford them . KFF&#39;s 76% figure is close to that warning .</p> <p>On Sept. 14, Reps. Terri Sewell (D-Ala.) and Kathy Castor (D-Fla.) introduced the Affordable Premiums for Seniors Act, H.R. 10374. It would keep the program running through 2029, and after that unless the government finds that ending it would not raise premiums . The bill was sent to the House Energy and Commerce and Ways and Means committees . Sewell&#39;s office says MedPAC found the program saved seniors $312 on average in 2026 .</p> <blockquote><p>Seniors worked hard for their earned Medicare benefits, and I am fighting to keep those benefits affordable and dependable.</p><p>&mdash; Kathy Castor, U.S. representative, D-Fla.</p></blockquote> <h2>Why it matters on Election Day</h2> <p>Analysis: Oz describes the subsidy as money for insurers. But the numbers show who ends up paying once it is gone: the people who buy stand-alone plans. KFF found that stand-alone drug premiums will be more than five times higher than drug premiums in Medicare Advantage plans next year, $51 versus $9 .</p> <p>The fight is also on Tuesday&#39;s ballot. Pappas, who led the August letter, is running for an open U.S. Senate seat in New Hampshire against Republican John Sununu . Whoever controls the next Congress will decide whether bills like Sewell and Castor&#39;s get a vote.</p> <p>What to do now: look at your plan&#39;s annual notice of change, then compare options with the Medicare Plan Finder or by calling 1-800-MEDICARE, which is open 24 hours a day. Your State Health Insurance Assistance Program (SHIP) gives free counseling.</p> <p><em>Read the original, with every source linked, at <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/story/medicare-drug-plan-premiums-projected-to-jump-50-after-trump-team-ended-subsidy">thegopfiles.com</a>. Republished under The GOP Files' <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/republish">free republishing terms</a>.</em></p> <img src="https://thegopfiles.com/api/rp/medicare-drug-plan-premiums-projected-to-jump-50-after-trump-team-ended-subsidy.gif" alt="" width="1" height="1" style="border:0;width:1px;height:1px">

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Sources

1. Healthcare Dive, “Medicare Part D premiums are spiking 50% on average next year, KFF finds” (2026-11-02). healthcaredive.com/news/medicare-part-d-premiums-skyrocket-2
2. KFF, “Medicare Part D Premiums and Cost Sharing in 2027” (2026-10-30). kff.org/medicare/medicare-part-d-premiums-and-cost-sharing-i
3. KFF, “The Average Monthly Premium for Medicare Part D Stand-Alone Plans Is Projected to Increase by 50% From $34 to $51 in 2027 Unless Enrollees Switch to Lower-Cost Plans” (2026-10-30). kff.org/medicare/the-average-monthly-premium-for-medicare-pa
4. KFF, “CMS's Decision to End Temporary Subsidies to Medicare's Stand-Alone Drug Plans Could Mean Larger Premium Increases for Some Beneficiaries Next Year” (2026-07-29). kff.org/quick-insights/cmss-decision-to-end-temporary-subsid
5. CMS, “Medicare Advantage and Medicare Prescription Drug Programs Expected to Remain Stable in 2027” (2026-09-28). cms.gov/newsroom/press-releases/medicare-advantage-medicare-
6. AARP, “Premiums for Medicare Part D Stand-Alone Drug Plans to Rise for Some, Fall for Others in 2027” (2026-09-29). aarp.org/medicare/medicare-part-d-premiums-2027/
7. Office of Rep. Chris Pappas, “Letter to CMS Administrator Mehmet Oz on the Medicare Part D Premium Stabilization Demonstration” (2026-08-04). pappas.house.gov/sites/evo-subsites/pappas-evo.house.gov/fil
8. Office of Rep. Terri Sewell, “Reps. Sewell and Castor Introduce the Affordable Premiums for Seniors Act” (2026-09-14). sewell.house.gov/2026/9/reps-sewell-and-castor-introduce-the
9. Legis1, “Medicare Part D Premium Trial Shortened, Prompts Calls To Reverse” (2026-10-23). legis1.com/news/medicare-part-d-premiums-demo-ends-early-rai
10. CNBC, “These Senate races may help determine the fate of Social Security” (2026-11-01). cnbc.com/2026/11/01/social-security-senate-races.html

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