Silver sees 'blue tsunami' as Sabato rates four state legislatures in play

With one day until the midterm election, political forecaster Nate Silver said Sunday that the newest round of New York Times/Siena University polling points to a "blue tsunami" ¹². The Times polls, conducted from October 23 to November 1, found Democrats ahead in seven key Senate races: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas ¹.

Silver wrote that Democrats "could actually absorb a modest-sized polling error and perhaps still prevail given the latest round of surveys" ². He said the Times/Siena poll pushed his model's forecast of Democrats winning the Senate majority into the 80 percent range ². He also cautioned that polling "might be wrong again" ¹.

Polls show that Democrats will win the Senate, perhaps soundly. They might be wrong or they might predict slightly the wrong states to flip. No currently R-held state other than North Carolina counts as ‘Solid D,’

The down-ballot picture is drawing fresh attention. Sabato's Crystal Ball ratings give Democrats a chance of winning legislative majorities in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan and Wisconsin ¹. More than 6,000 legislative seats are up for grabs, according to State Affairs ¹.

Democrats currently control 39 of the nation's state legislative chambers, Republicans control 56, and four others are tied, nonpartisan or run by a bipartisan coalition ¹. In Arizona, Republicans hold the House 33-27 and the Senate 17-13 ¹. In Georgia, the House is 99 Republicans and 81 Democrats, while the state Senate is rated Likely Republican ¹.

In Michigan, Republicans control the House 58-52 and Democrats hold the Senate 20-18 ¹. In Wisconsin, Republicans hold the Assembly 54-45 and the Senate 18-15 ¹. In New Hampshire, the House is 212 Republicans, 169 Democrats and one independent, and the Senate is 16 Republicans and eight Democrats ¹.

Three Democratic-held bodies are also seen as potentially competitive: the Maine House (Leans Democratic), the Michigan Senate (Toss-Up) and the Minnesota Senate (Toss-Up) ¹. In Minnesota, Democrats hold the House 67-66 with one vacancy and the Senate 34-33 ¹.

The Senate numbers in the Times poll included Michigan by 11 percentage points, Texas by 7, Kansas by 5 and Alaska by 1 ². Silver wrote that no Democrat would complain if they only flipped the top five races in his chart, especially if it came along with the Texas governorship ².

Trump's approval is underwater in three surveys cited by Newsweek. An AtlasIntel poll of 3,566 adults from October 28 to November 1 showed 59 percent disapproving and 40 percent approving, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 points ¹. An NBC News poll of 1,000 registered voters from October 28 to 30 showed 60 percent disapproving and 40 percent approving, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 points ¹. A YouGov/Economist poll of 1,440 registered voters from October 23 to 26 showed 58 percent disapproving and 39 percent approving ¹.

That matters because state legislatures draw district maps and set voting rules, and the party that controls them after Tuesday will hold that power through the next round of redistricting. Silver's caveat is the receipt: he wrote that the polls "might be wrong again," and Republicans have been underestimated in past cycles ¹.

The Record

1. Oct 23, 2026The New York Times/Siena polling ran from October 23 to November 1 and found Democrats ahead in seven Senate races ¹.
2. Oct 28, 2026An AtlasIntel poll of 3,566 adults from October 28 to November 1 showed Trump at 59 percent disapproval and 40 percent approval ¹.
3. Nov 1, 2026Nate Silver said Sunday that the latest polling pointed to a "blue tsunami" ¹².

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<h2>Silver sees &#39;blue tsunami&#39; as Sabato rates four state legislatures in play</h2> <p><em>By The GOP Files Campaign Desk. This article first appeared on <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/story/silver-sees-blue-tsunami-as-sabato-rates-four-state-legislatures-in-play">The GOP Files</a> on Monday, November 2, 2026.</em></p> <p>With one day until the midterm election, political forecaster Nate Silver said Sunday that the newest round of New York Times/Siena University polling points to a &quot;blue tsunami&quot; . The Times polls, conducted from October 23 to November 1, found Democrats ahead in seven key Senate races: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas .</p> <p>Silver wrote that Democrats &quot;could actually absorb a modest-sized polling error and perhaps still prevail given the latest round of surveys&quot; . He said the Times/Siena poll pushed his model&#39;s forecast of Democrats winning the Senate majority into the 80 percent range . He also cautioned that polling &quot;might be wrong again&quot; .</p> <blockquote><p>Polls show that Democrats will win the Senate, perhaps soundly. They might be wrong or they might predict slightly the wrong states to flip. No currently R-held state other than North Carolina counts as ‘Solid D,’</p><p>&mdash; Nate Silver, political forecaster and statistician, Silver Bulletin</p></blockquote> <p>The down-ballot picture is drawing fresh attention. Sabato&#39;s Crystal Ball ratings give Democrats a chance of winning legislative majorities in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan and Wisconsin . More than 6,000 legislative seats are up for grabs, according to State Affairs .</p> <p>Democrats currently control 39 of the nation&#39;s state legislative chambers, Republicans control 56, and four others are tied, nonpartisan or run by a bipartisan coalition . In Arizona, Republicans hold the House 33-27 and the Senate 17-13 . In Georgia, the House is 99 Republicans and 81 Democrats, while the state Senate is rated Likely Republican .</p> <p>In Michigan, Republicans control the House 58-52 and Democrats hold the Senate 20-18 . In Wisconsin, Republicans hold the Assembly 54-45 and the Senate 18-15 . In New Hampshire, the House is 212 Republicans, 169 Democrats and one independent, and the Senate is 16 Republicans and eight Democrats .</p> <p>Three Democratic-held bodies are also seen as potentially competitive: the Maine House (Leans Democratic), the Michigan Senate (Toss-Up) and the Minnesota Senate (Toss-Up) . In Minnesota, Democrats hold the House 67-66 with one vacancy and the Senate 34-33 .</p> <p>The Senate numbers in the Times poll included Michigan by 11 percentage points, Texas by 7, Kansas by 5 and Alaska by 1 . Silver wrote that no Democrat would complain if they only flipped the top five races in his chart, especially if it came along with the Texas governorship .</p> <p>Trump&#39;s approval is underwater in three surveys cited by Newsweek. An AtlasIntel poll of 3,566 adults from October 28 to November 1 showed 59 percent disapproving and 40 percent approving, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 points . An NBC News poll of 1,000 registered voters from October 28 to 30 showed 60 percent disapproving and 40 percent approving, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 points . A YouGov/Economist poll of 1,440 registered voters from October 23 to 26 showed 58 percent disapproving and 39 percent approving .</p> <p>That matters because state legislatures draw district maps and set voting rules, and the party that controls them after Tuesday will hold that power through the next round of redistricting. Silver&#39;s caveat is the receipt: he wrote that the polls &quot;might be wrong again,&quot; and Republicans have been underestimated in past cycles .</p> <p><em>Read the original, with every source linked, at <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/story/silver-sees-blue-tsunami-as-sabato-rates-four-state-legislatures-in-play">thegopfiles.com</a>. Republished under The GOP Files' <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/republish">free republishing terms</a>.</em></p> <img src="https://thegopfiles.com/api/rp/silver-sees-blue-tsunami-as-sabato-rates-four-state-legislatures-in-play.gif" alt="" width="1" height="1" style="border:0;width:1px;height:1px">

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Sources

1. Newsweek, “Map Shows State Legislatures Democrats May Flip in Potential 'Blue Tsunami'” (2026-11-02). newsweek.com/map-shows-state-legislatures-democrats-may-flip
2. The Hill, “Nate Silver: Latest preelection polling shows 'blue tsunami' on horizon” (2026-11-02). thehill.com/homenews/campaign/6188866-silver-midterms-blue-t

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