South Carolina Senate race deadlocked in new poll six days before midterms

A new poll released Wednesday finds South Carolina's Senate race tied six days before the midterm election, a late data point on whether Democrats can win a seat in a state that has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1998 ¹.

The New York Times/Siena University survey shows Sen. Darline Graham, a Republican, and Democrat Annie Andrews each at 48 percent among likely voters ¹. The poll was conducted Oct. 19-26 among 707 South Carolina voters and has a margin of error of 4.3 percentage points ¹.

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A separate survey points the other way. The South Carolina Policy Council Fall Poll, conducted by Targoz Market Research, shows Graham at 47 percent and Andrews at 46 percent, with 3 percent backing other candidates and 4 percent undecided ². That poll surveyed 895 likely voters or people who had already voted and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.77 percentage points ².

Money and a presidential visit

Republicans have spent more than $20 million in recent weeks to back Graham, according to the ad tracking firm AdImpact ¹. Outside Republican groups have spent $9.7 million since Oct. 1 to support Graham or attack Andrews, according to a Reuters analysis of federal campaign filings ².

From Channel GOPAnnie Andrews makes her case to South CarolinaAnnie Andrews · 124 plays · captioned, with the source named

Graham, who was appointed to finish her late brother's term, has struggled to raise money. Federal Election Commission filings show she raised $1.2 million as of Oct. 14, compared with $23.8 million for Andrews ¹.

President Trump has campaigned in the state, most recently last week, and the Republican National Committee announced he will return Thursday, a few days before the election ¹.

Not all Republicans are rallying around her. Rep. Ralph Norman, who ran against Graham in the special primary, said last week he would keep his promise to vote for her but that his family would not support her.

I would not do an event with her, and I made that pretty clear

A Republican strategist in the state told Reuters the race is competitive because of national conditions.

closer than some would expect in a state like South Carolina thanks to a variety of factors, including a tough national environment

Why it matters

The pattern is that South Carolina has moved from safe Republican territory into a contest both parties are watching. Sabato's Crystal Ball moved the race from "Safe Republican" to "Likely Republican" on Oct. 6, then to "Lean Republican" on Oct. 27 ².

Democrats have been burned in the state before. In the 2020 Senate race, polls suggested a close contest between the late senator and Democrat Jaime Harrison, who went on to lose by 10 points ¹.

The nonpartisan forecaster Decision Desk HQ, a partner of The Hill, gives Graham a 67 percent chance to win and lists North Carolina, Alaska, Texas and Ohio as the likeliest Democratic flips — the four seats the party needs for a Senate majority ¹. It gives Democrats a greater than 30 percent chance in South Carolina ¹.

That matters because a Graham loss in a deeply Republican state could signal a larger-than-expected Democratic wave and deliver a political blow to Trump, who recruited Graham to serve out her brother's term after his death in July ². The election is Tuesday, Nov. 3.

The Record

1. Oct 6, 2026Sabato's Crystal Ball moves the South Carolina Senate race from "Safe Republican" to "Likely Republican" ².
2. Oct 14, 2026Federal Election Commission filings show Graham had raised $1.2 million, compared with $23.8 million for Andrews ¹.
3. Oct 27, 2026Sabato's Crystal Ball moves the race to "Lean Republican" ².
4. Oct 28, 2026A New York Times/Siena University poll shows Graham and Andrews tied at 48 percent among likely voters ¹.

Sources

1. The Hill, “South Carolina Senate race deadlocked: Survey” (2026-10-28). thehill.com/homenews/campaign/6177199-darline-graham-annie-a
2. usatoday.com, “South Carolina Senate poll shows tight Graham-Andrews race” (2026-10-28). usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2026/10/27/south-carolina-s

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