Study projects new dementia cases will more than double by 2050 as Medicaid is cut

The number of people who develop dementia each year worldwide is projected to more than double by 2050. A new study in the journal JAMA Neurology puts it at 24.7 million, up from 11.4 million in 2023 ¹².

The Guardian reports the rise will strain a health system that is already struggling amid cuts by the Trump administration. Dementia is the loss of memory and thinking skills that makes daily life hard. Alzheimer's disease is the most common form ¹.

What the study found

Researchers at the Centre for Healthy Brain Ageing at UNSW Sydney in Australia pooled data from 38,418 people in 22 studies across 18 countries and territories. Over about 287,000 person-years of follow-up, 3,001 participants developed dementia ².

The study also found that women had higher rates than men. Rates were higher in low- and middle-income countries than in high-income ones ². The researchers said the study does not explain why ².

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The study counts new cases worldwide, not U.S. cases alone. A separate JAMA study from 2024 projected that U.S. adults diagnosed each year would rise from 514,000 in 2020 to 1 million by 2060 ¹.

Families will be absorbing enormous emotional and financial costs … because dementia often requires years of increasing supervision and hands-on care, which our healthcare system is not really designed to provide,

A care system short of workers

The United States already lacks enough geriatric specialists, home care workers and nursing home staff, The Guardian reports ¹. Geriatricians are doctors who specialize in older adults. Their numbers fell from 10,270 in 2000 to 7,413 in 2022 ¹.

The Center for American Progress expects the need for nursing assistants to grow 48% between 2020 and 2035. It expects the need for home health aides to grow 42%. Yet the median pay for home health aides in May 2025 was $17 an hour ¹.

A 2024 industry survey found that almost all nursing homes had trouble hiring. About half had limited new admissions ¹.

Medicaid is the pressure point

Medicaid, the joint federal-state health program for people with low incomes, pays for more than half of what the country spends on long-term care, according to KFF, a health policy group ¹. Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill Act, passed in 2025, included nearly $1 trillion in Medicaid cuts over 10 years ¹.

Regina Shih, an Emory University epidemiology professor, said the cuts make it harder for people with dementia who qualify for Medicaid to get services such as home care and respite care ¹. Respite care gives family caregivers a break.

It’s a serious challenge for expanding access

What happens next

Some help is on the way. The Food and Drug Administration has approved two drugs, Kisunla and Leqembi, that can modestly slow decline in some people with early Alzheimer's. It has also approved blood tests that help diagnose the disease ¹.

Julie Zissimopoulos of the University of Southern California said such advances will be costly for the health system ¹. Jordan Weiss of NYU Langone said there is also a chance to cut risk through better heart health and physical activity ¹.

Some states are trying to ease the worker shortage. In 2025, almost half offered incentive payments to Medicaid home care workers, according to a KFF survey ¹. The Guardian's report cites no federal plan to expand dementia care.

That matters because the cost falls on families. The study's numbers are a projection, but the care shortage and the Medicaid cuts it ties together are already here.

The Record

1. Jan 1, 2024A 2024 JAMA study projected U.S. dementia diagnoses would rise from 514,000 a year in 2020 to 1 million by 2060 ¹.
2. Jan 1, 2025Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill Act passed, with nearly $1 trillion in Medicaid cuts over 10 years ¹.
3. Oct 13, 2026JAMA Neurology published a study projecting 24.7 million new dementia cases worldwide a year by 2050 ².

Sources

1. The Guardian, “Dementia cases in US projected to rise dramatically by 2050, study finds” (2026-10-28). theguardian.com/us-news/2026/oct/28/dementia-cases-increase
2. UNSW Sydney, “New yearly dementia cases to double by 2050: study” (2026-10). unsw.edu.au/newsroom/news/2026/10/new-dementia-cases-to-hit-

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