Thune says GOP may have the votes for a third party-line bill after Tuesday's election

Senate Majority Leader John Thune says Republicans do not have the votes right now to start a third party-line budget bill. But in remarks reported Friday by The Washington Sun, he added a line that matters to anyone voting Tuesday: "We might have them after [the midterms]" ¹.

Right now, we don’t have the votes to get on a third recon bill [and a] budget resolution.

That matters because the Republicans who run Congress today will still run it after the votes are counted. The new Congress does not convene until Jan. 3, 2027, which leaves a lame-duck session, when outgoing lawmakers can still vote ⁴. Thune said "the election outcome obviously is probably going to shape in a very significant way what’s achievable in the lame duck" ¹.

What a third bill could do

The tool is called budget reconciliation. It is a special process that lets a bill pass without Democratic votes, needing 51 votes in the Senate and 218 in the House ⁴⁶. Republicans have already passed two such bills ².

House Republicans took a first step toward a third one this summer. They passed a budget outline by 216 to 214, with every Democrat opposed and two Republicans voting no, according to a July analysis by Jason Pye in Exiled Policy ⁵. It allows $95 billion in added deficits with no offsetting cuts, and it focuses on military spending, payments to farmers and parts of an elections bill called the SAVE America Act ⁵.

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Some Republicans want to press ahead no matter what voters decide. Sen. Bernie Moreno of Ohio put it plainly to The Washington Sun ².

Regardless of how the election turns out, we have to do a reconciliation bill.

The debt limit and the push for cuts

A party-line bill could also carry a debt limit increase. The debt limit is the legal cap on federal borrowing. Top Republicans are open to raising it this way, which would take away a bargaining chip from Democrats if they win a chamber ². Outside projections put the next deadline as early as mid-2027 ³.

The Hill reported in September that Republicans would look to raise the limit by about $5 trillion, according to an AlterNet account of that report ⁶. Moreno says the votes will be there: "Nobody wants to see a debt default. That would be 1929 on steroids." ²

Many conservatives want spending cuts in return. Rep. Clay Higgins of Louisiana said, "There will be no blank check." ² Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, who chairs the Senate Budget Committee, wants any increase paired with cuts to "waste, fraud and abuse" ³.

Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky named one possible target. "There are several Medicaid reforms that could occur, that didn't occur [last year], that could actually reduce spending," he said, as relayed by AlterNet from The Hill ⁶. Medicaid is the joint federal and state health program for people with low incomes. The 2025 Republican law already slashed more than $1 trillion in federal spending ³.

No package is settled ⁴. None of the reports we reviewed names Social Security or Medicare as a target of this bill. The pattern is still worth watching: the lawmakers demanding cuts have not said publicly where most of them would come from.

The plan voters have not seen

There is a separate unanswered question. In June, House Speaker Mike Johnson said Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security need to be "adjusted and fixed" ⁹. On the Republican approach to those programs, he said he had a plan to do that next year ⁸.

Johnson has rejected claims that Republicans want to cut benefits, saying the focus is on eliminating waste, fraud and abuse and that changes are needed to address the debt ⁸. President Trump has repeatedly pledged not to cut Social Security benefits ⁸.

In August, Senate Democrats led by Elizabeth Warren, Ron Wyden and Chuck Schumer wrote to Johnson and Thune, demanding that they "release the plan referenced by Speaker Johnson." ⁷ That report showed no release, and we found no later report of one.

A plan you will not show the voters before they vote is not reassurance.

Wyden, the top Democrat on the Senate Finance Committee, has warned about what such ideas mean for retirees ⁷.

Every time Republicans get their hands on these sorts of ideas for Social Security, life gets worse for older people that count on it to get by

The backdrop is real. Social Security serves about 70 million Americans ⁸. The program's trustees project that its retirement fund can pay full benefits until the fourth quarter of 2032, and after that incoming revenue would cover 78% of scheduled benefits unless Congress acts ⁸⁹.

Why the bill may never happen

A third bill is far from certain. A senior Senate Republican aide told The Washington Sun that it is not expected to happen, and Sen. Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia said, "I’m not ready to make that prediction." ² Retiring Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina called the debt fight a "next year thing" ².

The math is tight. Thune can lose only three votes on a Republican-only bill, and his majority could shrink in mid-December if Democrats flip Ohio ³. Retiring or defeated lawmakers may also have little reason to follow their leaders ³.

Thune also worries about the amendment votes Democrats could force on such a bill. He said "we don’t know that we have the votes to defend against the poison pill Democrat amendments." ¹

Other work comes first. Government funding runs out Dec. 11, and Congress is expected to pass a short-term extension to mid-March for agencies whose full-year bills are not done ². Republicans also want a defense policy bill, farm aid and more of Trump's judges, on top of the 57 already confirmed since his return ¹².

Thune summed up the coming weeks by saying "it’s going to be the art of the doable." ¹ What counts as doable now depends partly on Tuesday. If Republicans lose ground, they could have one last chance to act with full control before Democrats gain a say in January.

The Record

1. Jun 9, 2026Common Dreams reports that Speaker Johnson said Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security need to be "adjusted and fixed" ⁹.
2. Jul 28, 2026An analysis reports that the House passed a $95 billion budget outline by 216 to 214, with no offsetting cuts ⁵.
3. Aug 5, 2026Common Dreams reports that Senate Democrats have demanded Republicans release the plan Johnson described ⁷.
4. Oct 22, 2026The Washington Sun reports that Sen. Moreno says Republicans must pass a reconciliation bill however the election turns out ².
5. Oct 30, 2026The Washington Sun reports Thune saying Republicans lack the votes for a third bill now but might have them after the midterms ¹.

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<h2>Thune says GOP may have the votes for a third party-line bill after Tuesday&#39;s election</h2> <p><em>By The GOP Files Capitol Desk. This article first appeared on <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/story/thune-says-gop-may-have-the-votes-for-a-third-party-line-bill-after-tuesday-s-election">The GOP Files</a> on Sunday, November 1, 2026.</em></p> <p>Senate Majority Leader John Thune says Republicans do not have the votes right now to start a third party-line budget bill. But in remarks reported Friday by The Washington Sun, he added a line that matters to anyone voting Tuesday: &quot;We might have them after [the midterms]&quot; .</p> <blockquote><p>Right now, we don’t have the votes to get on a third recon bill [and a] budget resolution.</p><p>&mdash; John Thune, Senate majority leader, R-S.D.</p></blockquote> <p>That matters because the Republicans who run Congress today will still run it after the votes are counted. The new Congress does not convene until Jan. 3, 2027, which leaves a lame-duck session, when outgoing lawmakers can still vote . Thune said &quot;the election outcome obviously is probably going to shape in a very significant way what’s achievable in the lame duck&quot; .</p> <h2>What a third bill could do</h2> <p>The tool is called budget reconciliation. It is a special process that lets a bill pass without Democratic votes, needing 51 votes in the Senate and 218 in the House . Republicans have already passed two such bills .</p> <p>House Republicans took a first step toward a third one this summer. They passed a budget outline by 216 to 214, with every Democrat opposed and two Republicans voting no, according to a July analysis by Jason Pye in Exiled Policy . It allows $95 billion in added deficits with no offsetting cuts, and it focuses on military spending, payments to farmers and parts of an elections bill called the SAVE America Act .</p> <p>Some Republicans want to press ahead no matter what voters decide. Sen. Bernie Moreno of Ohio put it plainly to The Washington Sun .</p> <blockquote><p>Regardless of how the election turns out, we have to do a reconciliation bill.</p><p>&mdash; Bernie Moreno, U.S. senator, R-Ohio</p></blockquote> <h2>The debt limit and the push for cuts</h2> <p>A party-line bill could also carry a debt limit increase. The debt limit is the legal cap on federal borrowing. Top Republicans are open to raising it this way, which would take away a bargaining chip from Democrats if they win a chamber . Outside projections put the next deadline as early as mid-2027 .</p> <p>The Hill reported in September that Republicans would look to raise the limit by about $5 trillion, according to an AlterNet account of that report . Moreno says the votes will be there: &quot;Nobody wants to see a debt default. That would be 1929 on steroids.&quot;</p> <p>Many conservatives want spending cuts in return. Rep. Clay Higgins of Louisiana said, &quot;There will be no blank check.&quot; Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, who chairs the Senate Budget Committee, wants any increase paired with cuts to &quot;waste, fraud and abuse&quot; .</p> <p>Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky named one possible target. &quot;There are several Medicaid reforms that could occur, that didn&#39;t occur [last year], that could actually reduce spending,&quot; he said, as relayed by AlterNet from The Hill . Medicaid is the joint federal and state health program for people with low incomes. The 2025 Republican law already slashed more than $1 trillion in federal spending .</p> <p>No package is settled . None of the reports we reviewed names Social Security or Medicare as a target of this bill. The pattern is still worth watching: the lawmakers demanding cuts have not said publicly where most of them would come from.</p> <h2>The plan voters have not seen</h2> <p>There is a separate unanswered question. In June, House Speaker Mike Johnson said Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security need to be &quot;adjusted and fixed&quot; . On the Republican approach to those programs, he said he had a plan to do that next year .</p> <p>Johnson has rejected claims that Republicans want to cut benefits, saying the focus is on eliminating waste, fraud and abuse and that changes are needed to address the debt . President Trump has repeatedly pledged not to cut Social Security benefits .</p> <p>In August, Senate Democrats led by Elizabeth Warren, Ron Wyden and Chuck Schumer wrote to Johnson and Thune, demanding that they &quot;release the plan referenced by Speaker Johnson.&quot; That report showed no release, and we found no later report of one.</p> <blockquote><p>A plan you will not show the voters before they vote is not reassurance.</p><p>&mdash; Elizabeth Warren, U.S. senator, D-Mass., in a letter she led with Sens. Ron Wyden and Chuck Schumer</p></blockquote> <p>Wyden, the top Democrat on the Senate Finance Committee, has warned about what such ideas mean for retirees .</p> <blockquote><p>Every time Republicans get their hands on these sorts of ideas for Social Security, life gets worse for older people that count on it to get by</p><p>&mdash; Ron Wyden, top Democrat on the Senate Finance Committee, D-Ore.</p></blockquote> <p>The backdrop is real. Social Security serves about 70 million Americans . The program&#39;s trustees project that its retirement fund can pay full benefits until the fourth quarter of 2032, and after that incoming revenue would cover 78% of scheduled benefits unless Congress acts .</p> <h2>Why the bill may never happen</h2> <p>A third bill is far from certain. A senior Senate Republican aide told The Washington Sun that it is not expected to happen, and Sen. Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia said, &quot;I’m not ready to make that prediction.&quot; Retiring Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina called the debt fight a &quot;next year thing&quot; .</p> <p>The math is tight. Thune can lose only three votes on a Republican-only bill, and his majority could shrink in mid-December if Democrats flip Ohio . Retiring or defeated lawmakers may also have little reason to follow their leaders .</p> <p>Thune also worries about the amendment votes Democrats could force on such a bill. He said &quot;we don’t know that we have the votes to defend against the poison pill Democrat amendments.&quot;</p> <p>Other work comes first. Government funding runs out Dec. 11, and Congress is expected to pass a short-term extension to mid-March for agencies whose full-year bills are not done . Republicans also want a defense policy bill, farm aid and more of Trump&#39;s judges, on top of the 57 already confirmed since his return .</p> <p>Thune summed up the coming weeks by saying &quot;it’s going to be the art of the doable.&quot; What counts as doable now depends partly on Tuesday. If Republicans lose ground, they could have one last chance to act with full control before Democrats gain a say in January.</p> <p><em>Read the original, with every source linked, at <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/story/thune-says-gop-may-have-the-votes-for-a-third-party-line-bill-after-tuesday-s-election">thegopfiles.com</a>. Republished under The GOP Files' <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/republish">free republishing terms</a>.</em></p> <img src="https://thegopfiles.com/api/rp/thune-says-gop-may-have-the-votes-for-a-third-party-line-bill-after-tuesday-s-election.gif" alt="" width="1" height="1" style="border:0;width:1px;height:1px">

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Sources

1. The Washington Sun, “Thune Says Republicans Have 'Done All We Can Do' Before the Midterms” (2026-10-30). washingtonsun.com/campaigns/thune-says-republicans-have-done
2. The Washington Sun, “Republicans Have Big Post-Election Plans - And Big Fears About What's Doable” (2026-10-22). washingtonsun.com/congress/republicans-lame-duck-agenda-midt
3. Punchbowl News, “Senate GOP's debt limit dilemma” (2026-10-05). punchbowl.news/article/senate/senate-gop-debt-limit/
4. WilmerHale, “Lame Duck, High Stakes: Congress's Postelection Agenda” (2026-10-14). wilmerhale.com/en/insights/client-alerts/20261013-lame-duck-
5. Exiled Policy, “Is Congress Ready for Reconciliation 3.0?” (2026-07-28). exiledpolicy.substack.com/p/is-congress-ready-for-reconcilia
6. AlterNet, “Republicans plotting immediate reaction to midterms wipeout” (2026-09-16). alternet.org/republicans-midterms-wipeout-spending-cuts
7. Common Dreams, “Senate Dems Push GOP to Divulge Secret Plan to 'Attack Earned Benefits Like Social Security'” (2026-08-05). commondreams.org/news/republican-plan-cut-social-security
8. Newsweek, “Social Security Update: Democrats List 4 Ways GOP Is Pushing 'Deep Cuts'”. newsweek.com/social-security-update-democrats-list-4-ways-go
9. Common Dreams, reposted by Rep. John Larson's office, “As Mike Johnson Floats Social Security Cuts, Trustees Report Shows Harm of Trump Policies” (2026-06-09). larson.house.gov/media-center/in-the-news/mike-johnson-float

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