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Then vs. Now · File No. 261105-659

Tim Scott said 'absolutely' the GOP would keep the Senate. Democrats won control

Two days before the election, Tim Scott, the senator in charge of electing Senate Republicans, said the party would 'absolutely, positively, unequivocally' keep its majority. Democrats won control. Since then his committee has turned donors' attention to 2028, and President Trump says he 'wasn't on the Ballot.'

Every quote in this story (4) was matched word for word against its source. How we work

Tim Scott
Tim Scott. Photo: United States Senate, Public domain

On Nov. 1, two days before the midterm election, NBC's "Meet the Press" asked Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina whether Republicans would keep control of the Senate. Scott left no room for doubt in his answer 1.

Tim Scott
the answer is absolutely, positively, unequivocally, yes.
Tim Scott, U.S. senator and chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, R-S.C.1

This was not just any senator's guess. Scott chairs the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), the party committee whose job is to elect Republican senators 16. CBS News reported that by early Wednesday, Democrats had won enough races to control at least 54 seats 3.

What he said then

In private, Scott was more careful. In September he told fellow Republican senators, "We're in the fight for our lives with a record number of toss-up races," Semafor reported. At that point Republicans could lose up to three seats and still keep the majority 8.

In public, he sounded more and more sure. On "Meet the Press" he said, "Darline Graham is going to win on Tuesday," about South Carolina's Senate race. About Alaska he said Dan Sullivan would win 1.

From Channel GOPAnnie Andrews declares victory in South CarolinaAnnie Andrews · 161 plays · captioned, with the source named

On Election Day, Scott told Newsmax, "We maintain the majority." He predicted that "Michele Tafoya might be the surprise of the night" in Minnesota. He said Rep. Haley Stevens' endorsement of Republican Mike Rogers in Michigan "does matter. It matters a lot" 2.

Tim Scott
America is on the ballot. His agenda is on the ballot. And frankly, his legacy is on the ballot
Tim Scott, U.S. senator and chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, R-S.C.2

He then listed the places he expected Republicans to win: "From Texas to Maine to Iowa to Ohio, Alaska, and South Carolina, Kansas, and Nebraska, too." Then he added: "We are going to run the map, and I'm looking forward to the results tonight" 2.

What happened

Democrats won almost everywhere on that list. According to CBS News, Democrats flipped seats in Texas (James Talarico over Ken Paxton), Maine (Troy Jackson over Susan Collins), Kansas (Hamilton over Roger Marshall) and South Carolina (Annie Andrews over Darline Graham) 3. Democrats also flipped Iowa and Ohio 3.

Scott had also targeted three Democratic-held seats, and Democrats kept all of them. Abdul El-Sayed beat Rogers in Michigan, Chris Pappas beat John Sununu in New Hampshire, and Peggy Flanagan was projected to beat Tafoya in Minnesota 3. The Alaska and Mississippi races were still uncalled on Wednesday 3.

In Scott's home state, Andrews won more than 51% of the vote to Graham's 46.6%. The Associated Press called the race at 10:39 p.m. Tuesday, according to WCIV in Charleston. The station said it was the first Senate win for a Democrat in South Carolina since 1998 9. Trump had endorsed both Graham and Paxton, and both lost 6.

What they say now

Scott's first public statement after the results, released by the NRSC on Wednesday, did not mention the lost majority. It congratulated Tennessee Sen. Bill Hagerty: "Congratulations to Senator Bill Hagerty on another decisive victory in the Volunteer State!" 4.

The same day, the NRSC sent donors a fundraising email that barely addressed the defeat, according to Right Wing Watch, a project of People For the American Way. The email said "Democrats are looking toward 2028." It also claimed Democrats "dominated Republicans in fundraising during the midterms" 5. The Washington Sun interviewed more than 50 people for its account of what went wrong 6.

Scott had told viewers that Trump's agenda was on the ballot 2. After the losses, Trump wrote on Truth Social that "I wasn't on the Ballot" and claimed Republicans would have won in a landslide if he had been. "It's them, not me — My numbers are better than they have ever been," he wrote 7.

The Washington Sun also reported, citing three sources, that Scott told Republicans in early 2025 that his relationship with Trump was his top concern and that he would do nothing as chair to put it at risk. An NRSC spokesperson called that account "categorically false and a 1000% lie" 6.

The new colleague

Two days before the vote, Scott attacked Andrews on Fox News. He said "Even Annie Andrews is running as a moderate," accused her of supporting "amnesty, opening our borders, defunding the police," and said, "This is a radical position" 11. Those were his campaign charges against her, not findings of fact.

Now Andrews, a pediatrician, will serve next to him. She said she has spoken with Scott and that the two plan to meet next week 9. She wants a bipartisan coalition to stop coming cuts to Medicaid, the joint federal-state health insurance program for people with low incomes. WCBD reported that she credited Scott with a record of working across party lines on Medicaid 10.

If these cuts go through, tens of thousands will lose health insurance, rural hospitals will close,
Annie Andrews, Senator-elect, D-S.C.10

That matters because Scott's own words tied the outcome to the president's agenda. When voters rejected that agenda, the message from his committee turned to the next election, and the president said the loss was not about him. The tape from Nov. 1 and Nov. 3 is still there.

The Record

  1. Scott privately tells Republican senators they are 'in the fight for our lives with a record number of toss-up races' 8
  2. On 'Meet the Press,' Scott says Republicans will 'absolutely, positively, unequivocally' keep the Senate and predicts Darline Graham will win in South Carolina 1
  3. On Election Day, Scott tells Newsmax that Trump's 'agenda is on the ballot' and that Republicans will 'run the map' 2
  4. Democrats win control of the Senate with at least 54 seats, including Scott's home-state seat 39
  5. The NRSC congratulates Sen. Bill Hagerty and sends donors an email saying 'Democrats are looking toward 2028' 45
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Sources

  1. NBC News, “Meet the Press — November 1, 2026 transcript” (2026-11-01). nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/transcripts/meet-press-november-1
  2. Newsmax (via Yahoo News), “Sen. Tim Scott to Newsmax: Let's Get It Done Today and Shock the Polls” (2026-11-03). yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/sen-tim-scott-newsmax-lets-
  3. CBS News, “2026 Senate midterm election results as Democrats win control” (2026-11-04). cbsnews.com/live-updates/senate-election-results-2026/
  4. National Republican Senatorial Committee, “NRSC Congratulates Hagerty on Tennessee Senate Win” (2026-11-04). nrsc.org/press-releases/nrsc-congratulates-hagerty-on-tennes
  5. Right Wing Watch (People For the American Way), “National Republican Senatorial Committee Asking For Cash Without Acknowledging Epic Fail” (2026-11-04). peoplefor.org/rightwingwatch/national-republican-senatorial-
  6. The Washington Sun, “Inside the Republican Cataclysm” (2026-11-04). washingtonsun.com/campaigns/republican-midterms-election-wip
  7. Fortune, “Trump personally chose several candidates who just got crushed — and he's already blaming Republicans for a stunning midterm wipeout” (2026-11-04). fortune.com/2026/11/04/trump-personal-handpicked-candidates-
  8. Semafor, “Tim Scott to Senate Republicans: We're still in this” (2026-09-23). semafor.com/article/09/23/2026/tim-scott-to-senate-republica
  9. WCIV ABC News 4, “'This victory is for everyone,' Dr. Annie Andrews discusses election win” (2026-11-04). abcnews4.com/news/lowcountry-and-state-politics/this-victory
  10. WCBD News 2 (via Yahoo News), “SC U.S. Senator-Elect Dr. Annie Andrews in one-on-one, discusses agenda following unofficial Senate victory” (2026-11-05). yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/sc-u-senator-elect-dr-04001
  11. Breitbart, “'They're Weird and They're Deceiving the Public': Tim Scott Warns About 'Radical,' 'Dangerous' Dems” (2026-11-02). breitbart.com/clips/2026/11/02/theyre-weird-and-theyre-decei

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