The Justice Department released a preliminary survey on Monday showing that the rate of violent crime victimization fell by about 25% in 2025 compared with 2024 1. The department claimed it is the largest decline since 1973 1. That is the department's description, and the survey is labeled preliminary.
What the survey found
The National Crime Victimization Survey is conducted by the Census Bureau and released by the Justice Department's Bureau of Justice Statistics 1. It estimated 669,000 fewer violent crimes in 2025 than in 2024, not counting simple assaults 1.
Aggravated assault victimization fell an estimated 31%, or about 390,000 fewer incidents 1. Robbery was down 27% 1. Property crime victimization was down 19%, burglary and trespassing were down 25%, and motor vehicle theft was down 29% 1.
How the numbers were gathered
The survey asks people age 12 and older in U.S. households about their experiences with crime, including how often it happens and what the consequences are 1. Unlike police statistics, it can capture crimes that were never reported. The 2025 survey included 101,980 household interviews 1.
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Only 53% of eligible households completed interviews, according to the Bureau of Justice Statistics 1. That is a limit worth keeping in mind for any survey result. The numbers are also preliminary and could change.
A second set of numbers points the same way
CBS News reported that the new survey bolsters earlier findings from the FBI's Uniform Crime Report, which compiles data from most law enforcement agencies 1. That report showed violent crime rates fell in 2025, with the murder rate reaching a 20-year low 1. It recorded aggravated assaults down 7.2%, rapes down 7.6% and robbery down about 18.5% 1.
The two measures do not match exactly. The survey shows a 31% drop in aggravated assault, while the FBI report shows 7.2% 1. The pattern is that both measures point down, but the size of the drop depends on how it is counted.
The Bureau of Justice Statistics also published a separate report, Crime Known to Law Enforcement, 2025, on October 19. It covers rates of violent and property crime 2. The page describing it did not list figures, so this brief does not rely on any from that report 2.
The political context
President Trump and his allies have sought to use the decline in violent crime as they campaign to help Republicans keep control of the Senate and House 1. Breaking with past practice, the White House unveiled the FBI report's findings before a campaign event on Long Island, New York 1. Attorney General Todd Blanche and FBI Director Kash Patel also attended that event 1.
That matters because crime statistics are normally released by statistical agencies, not at campaign events. Voters can still judge the numbers on their own terms. The data show crime falling, and the open question is how much credit any one administration deserves. The sources reviewed do not address that.
The sources reviewed did not include a Democratic response to the survey or to the Justice Department's claim. The midterm election is Tuesday, Nov. 3.
The Record
Sources
- CBS News, “Violent crime victimization fell 25% in 2025, DOJ survey shows” (2026-10-26). cbsnews.com/news/violent-crime-victimization-2025-survey-dat
- Office of Justice Programs (DOJ), “BJS releases Crime Known to Law Enforcement, 2025 and homicide victimization in the United States” (2026-10-19). ojp.gov/news/news-release/bjs-releases-crime-known-law-enfor
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