Midterms 2026 · Report · File No. 261031-798
Independents hold the key as Pappas and Sununu close out New Hampshire Senate race
Democrat Chris Pappas leads Republican John Sununu in the polling, and independents are the state's largest voting bloc. A Sununu win would sharply cut Democrats' chances of taking the Senate.
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New Hampshire's Senate race is one of the closest-watched contests of the midterm election on Tuesday, Nov. 3. Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas faces Republican John Sununu, a former U.S. senator, for the seat that Democrat Jeanne Shaheen is leaving 2. Republicans now control the White House, the House and the Senate 2.
Control of the Senate is at stake. WCAX reports that a Sununu win would sharply reduce Democrats' chances of gaining control of the chamber 2.
Why independents matter
Independent voters are the largest voting bloc in New Hampshire, and both candidates are courting them 12. A Saint Anselm College Survey Center poll shows Pappas ahead, according to Boston 25 News. The station did not report the poll's numbers 1.
Neil Levesque, executive director of the New Hampshire Institute of Politics, which ran the poll, says Pappas has led in polling since the spring 1. He also says Pappas is winning among independents 1.
From Channel GOPPappas: Everything with Trump is a shakedownChris Pappas · 169 plays · captioned, with the source named
He's also winning among independent voters, so that's a critical voting mass in New Hampshire.
Levesque said Sununu "is doing everything right" by keeping the race local and avoiding national issues and interviews. He added that Pappas benefits because "to some degree the electorate is mad at Donald Trump" 1.
What the candidates are saying
Pappas, who was first elected to Congress in 2018 and has served four terms, is running against President Donald Trump's record. He told WCAX his agenda includes building more homes, expanding health care access and treating child care as a national priority 2.
We've got to stand up to Donald Trump and people that have rigged the economy.
Sununu served one term in the Senate before losing to Shaheen in 2008 2. He is pitching himself to independents as someone who knows the state and will stand up to his own party or the president 2.
Chris Pappas hasn't done anything for New Hampshire. He's attempted very little; he's accomplished even less.
What happens next
Voters decide on Tuesday. Political observers expect strong turnout, and Levesque notes that New Hampshire voters stay closely connected to their elected officials 1.
Poll leads can shrink, and one voter told Boston 25 that some people may be hiding their choice in surveys. That is only one voter's guess, not evidence 1.
That matters because a narrow, steady lead in one state could help decide who controls the Senate. Independents, who belong to neither party, may settle it.
The Record
Sources
- Boston 25 News, “Pappas holds lead in New Hampshire senate race as candidates make final push before Election Day” (2026-10-26). boston25news.com/news/local/pappas-holds-lead-new-hampshire-
- WCAX, “Campaign Countdown: Pappas, Sununu face off for NH Senate seat” (2026-10-20). wcax.com/2026/10/20/campaign-countdown-pappas-sununu-face-of
Found an error? Tell the newsroom. Corrections are noted at the top of the story.
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