Latino voters swung back to Democrats in midterms, exit polls show, erasing 2024 gains

Latino voters moved sharply toward Democrats in Tuesday's midterm elections. They undid much of the progress Donald Trump made with them in 2024, according to exit polls (surveys of voters as they leave polling places) ¹².

The NBC News exit poll, conducted with the firm SSRS, found Latino voters backed Democrats 64% to 34%. Latinos were 10% of the electorate ². A separate AP voter poll found about 6 in 10 Latino voters chose the Democrat in their local House race ³.

Latino men swing the most

The biggest change came among Latino men. In the NBC poll, 58% backed Democrats and 39% backed Republicans. Among Latina women, Democrats won 68% to 30% ².

Newsweek compared the 2026 AP poll with the 2024 exit poll. It found Latino men favored Republicans by 8 points in 2024 and Democrats by 19 points this year, a 27-point swing. Among all Latino voters, the Democratic margin grew from 9 points to 30 ¹.

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Newsweek cautioned that the two polls used different methods and surveyed different groups of voters, so the shifts are estimates ¹. The pattern was not limited to Latinos. Men overall went from a 14-point Republican edge in 2024 to a 2-point Democratic edge, the first Democratic win among men in a national House vote since 2008, Newsweek reported ¹.

What voters and strategists say

Mike Madrid, a Republican strategist, called the result a rebuke of Trump and the party that has backed him ¹. Janet Murguía, president of the Latino advocacy group UnidosUS, said Latino voters rejected the president's policies ³.

What we saw was a massive rebuke of Donald Trump and a rejection of the Republican Party that's been enabling him,

The Los Angeles Times reported that more than half of Latino voters cited food and grocery costs as a burden. A poll released by UnidosUS found 17% of Trump's 2024 Latino voters backed Democratic House candidates this year ³.

Immigration enforcement also weighed on voters. Ronaldo Salgado, whose father was killed by ICE agents in Houston, told the paper he cried while voting in his father's honor ³. ICE is Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

What happens next

Not everyone expects the shift to last. Brandon Rottinghaus, a University of Houston political scientist, said the swing back to Democrats will be temporary ¹. Doug Gordon, a Democratic strategist, said voters dislike Trump but still do not trust Democrats ¹.

Julián Castro, who leads the Latino Community Foundation, asked what Republicans will do about affordability ³. Rep. Robert Garcia, a California Democrat, said his party must deliver on taking on ICE ³.

That matters because Latinos number about 39 million people, and about 4 million became eligible to vote for the first time, according to the Americas Society/Council of the Americas ⁴. Those new voters overwhelmingly backed Democrats, that group said ⁴. Whether Democrats can keep these voters will depend on prices and immigration policy as the 2028 campaign begins.

The Record

1. Nov 5, 2024Latino voters favored Democrats by 9 points in the 2024 House vote, and Latino men favored Republicans by 8, in the comparison Newsweek used ¹.
2. Nov 3, 2026NBC's exit poll found Latino voters backed Democrats 64% to 34%, with Latino men at 58% to 39% ².
3. Nov 4, 2026Americas Society/Council of the Americas described a double-digit Latino swing toward Democrats compared with 2024 ⁴.

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<h2>Latino voters swung back to Democrats in midterms, exit polls show, erasing 2024 gains</h2> <p><em>By The GOP Files Campaign Desk. This article first appeared on <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/story/latino-voters-swung-back-to-democrats-in-midterms-exit-polls-show-erasing-2024-gains">The GOP Files</a> on Saturday, November 7, 2026.</em></p> <p>Latino voters moved sharply toward Democrats in Tuesday&#39;s midterm elections. They undid much of the progress Donald Trump made with them in 2024, according to exit polls (surveys of voters as they leave polling places) .</p> <p>The NBC News exit poll, conducted with the firm SSRS, found Latino voters backed Democrats 64% to 34%. Latinos were 10% of the electorate . A separate AP voter poll found about 6 in 10 Latino voters chose the Democrat in their local House race .</p> <h2>Latino men swing the most</h2> <p>The biggest change came among Latino men. In the NBC poll, 58% backed Democrats and 39% backed Republicans. Among Latina women, Democrats won 68% to 30% .</p> <p>Newsweek compared the 2026 AP poll with the 2024 exit poll. It found Latino men favored Republicans by 8 points in 2024 and Democrats by 19 points this year, a 27-point swing. Among all Latino voters, the Democratic margin grew from 9 points to 30 .</p> <p>Newsweek cautioned that the two polls used different methods and surveyed different groups of voters, so the shifts are estimates . The pattern was not limited to Latinos. Men overall went from a 14-point Republican edge in 2024 to a 2-point Democratic edge, the first Democratic win among men in a national House vote since 2008, Newsweek reported .</p> <h2>What voters and strategists say</h2> <p>Mike Madrid, a Republican strategist, called the result a rebuke of Trump and the party that has backed him . Janet Murguía, president of the Latino advocacy group UnidosUS, said Latino voters rejected the president&#39;s policies .</p> <blockquote><p>What we saw was a massive rebuke of Donald Trump and a rejection of the Republican Party that&#39;s been enabling him,</p><p>&mdash; Mike Madrid, Republican strategist</p></blockquote> <p>The Los Angeles Times reported that more than half of Latino voters cited food and grocery costs as a burden. A poll released by UnidosUS found 17% of Trump&#39;s 2024 Latino voters backed Democratic House candidates this year .</p> <p>Immigration enforcement also weighed on voters. Ronaldo Salgado, whose father was killed by ICE agents in Houston, told the paper he cried while voting in his father&#39;s honor . ICE is Immigration and Customs Enforcement.</p> <h2>What happens next</h2> <p>Not everyone expects the shift to last. Brandon Rottinghaus, a University of Houston political scientist, said the swing back to Democrats will be temporary . Doug Gordon, a Democratic strategist, said voters dislike Trump but still do not trust Democrats .</p> <p>Julián Castro, who leads the Latino Community Foundation, asked what Republicans will do about affordability . Rep. Robert Garcia, a California Democrat, said his party must deliver on taking on ICE .</p> <p>That matters because Latinos number about 39 million people, and about 4 million became eligible to vote for the first time, according to the Americas Society/Council of the Americas . Those new voters overwhelmingly backed Democrats, that group said . Whether Democrats can keep these voters will depend on prices and immigration policy as the 2028 campaign begins.</p> <p><em>Read the original, with every source linked, at <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/story/latino-voters-swung-back-to-democrats-in-midterms-exit-polls-show-erasing-2024-gains">thegopfiles.com</a>. Republished under The GOP Files' <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/republish">free republishing terms</a>.</em></p> <img src="https://thegopfiles.com/api/rp/latino-voters-swung-back-to-democrats-in-midterms-exit-polls-show-erasing-2024-gains.gif" alt="" width="1" height="1" style="border:0;width:1px;height:1px">

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Sources

1. Newsweek, “How Republicans Got Swept Away by the Blue Tsunami in Six Charts” (2026-11-04). newsweek.com/donald-trump-voters-exit-polls-blue-wave-charts
2. NBC News, “National Exit Polls: Election 2026 Results” (2026-11-04). nbcnews.com/politics/2026-elections/exit-polls
3. Los Angeles Times via Fulton Sun, “How Latino voters helped secure blue victories” (2026-11-07). fultonsun.com/news/2026/nov/07/how-latino-voters-helped-secu
4. Americas Society/Council of the Americas, “How Latinos Voted in the 2026 U.S. Midterm Elections” (2026-11-04). as-coa.org/articles/how-latinos-voted-2026-us-midterm-electi

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