Latino voters swing back to Democrats in midterms, exit poll shows, erasing 2024 GOP gains

Latino voters moved back toward Democrats in Tuesday's midterm elections, according to an NBC News exit poll. The poll found 60% of Latino voters backed Democratic House candidates and 35% backed Republicans ². Exit polls are surveys of voters as they leave polling places, so the numbers are estimates and can change.

Two years earlier, the same poll showed Latino voters split 51% for Democrat Kamala Harris and 46% for Trump ². Another report on the same poll described the Democratic gain as nine points compared with the 2024 presidential election ¹.

On tapeNBC News · Nov 4

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Men and women both moved

Democratic support among Latino men rose 11 points, from 44% to 55%, the exit poll found ¹. Among Latinas, it rose from 58% to 65% ¹.

The 60% share matches what Democrats won among Latinos in the 2022 midterms. It is still below the 69% recorded in 2018 ¹. So this is a clear recovery, but not a return to the party's best years.

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Newsweek reported that 18% of Latino voters said it was their first midterm vote ². A Pew Research Center survey released in October found Trump's approval among Latino registered voters at 24%. That was down from 38% in February 2025 ².

What strategists are saying

Mike Madrid, a former Republican strategist and co-founder of the anti-Trump Lincoln Project, said turnout was a big part of the story ². Maria Cardona, a Democratic strategist, said Republicans misread their 2024 gains. She said they "made a massive miscalculation" by treating those gains as a permanent shift ².

The turnout with Hispanics is off the charts

Cost of living appears to be at the center of the shift. A UnidosUS poll of midterm voters, a Latino advocacy group's survey, ranked grocery and food costs as the leading concern, followed by housing expenses ¹.

What happens next

Democrats now have to hold these voters. Brandon Rottinghaus, a University of Houston political science professor, cautioned that the Latino swing "will be temporary if the Democrats can't make a policy impact for them" ².

will be temporary if the Democrats can't make a policy impact for them

That matters because Latino voters are a large and fast-growing part of the electorate. The exit poll shows a rebound, not a guarantee.

One caution on the data: reports vary on the exact figures. Some describe the Latino Democratic share as 'six in 10' and others as 60% ¹². Final numbers may shift as more survey data and official results come in.

The Record

1. Nov 6, 2018Democrats won about 69% of the Latino vote in the 2018 midterms, according to exit-poll comparisons ¹.
2. Nov 5, 2024NBC exit poll had Latino voters at 51% Harris and 46% Trump in the 2024 presidential election ².
3. Nov 3, 2026NBC exit poll found 60% of Latino voters backed Democratic House candidates and 35% backed Republicans ².

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<h2>Latino voters swing back to Democrats in midterms, exit poll shows, erasing 2024 GOP gains</h2> <p><em>By The GOP Files Campaign Desk. This article first appeared on <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/story/latino-voters-swing-back-to-democrats-in-midterms-exit-poll-shows-erasing-2024-gop">The GOP Files</a> on Wednesday, November 4, 2026.</em></p> <p>Latino voters moved back toward Democrats in Tuesday&#39;s midterm elections, according to an NBC News exit poll. The poll found 60% of Latino voters backed Democratic House candidates and 35% backed Republicans . Exit polls are surveys of voters as they leave polling places, so the numbers are estimates and can change.</p> <p>Two years earlier, the same poll showed Latino voters split 51% for Democrat Kamala Harris and 46% for Trump . Another report on the same poll described the Democratic gain as nine points compared with the 2024 presidential election .</p> <h2>Men and women both moved</h2> <p>Democratic support among Latino men rose 11 points, from 44% to 55%, the exit poll found . Among Latinas, it rose from 58% to 65% .</p> <p>The 60% share matches what Democrats won among Latinos in the 2022 midterms. It is still below the 69% recorded in 2018 . So this is a clear recovery, but not a return to the party&#39;s best years.</p> <p>Newsweek reported that 18% of Latino voters said it was their first midterm vote . A Pew Research Center survey released in October found Trump&#39;s approval among Latino registered voters at 24%. That was down from 38% in February 2025 .</p> <h2>What strategists are saying</h2> <p>Mike Madrid, a former Republican strategist and co-founder of the anti-Trump Lincoln Project, said turnout was a big part of the story . Maria Cardona, a Democratic strategist, said Republicans misread their 2024 gains. She said they &quot;made a massive miscalculation&quot; by treating those gains as a permanent shift .</p> <blockquote><p>The turnout with Hispanics is off the charts</p><p>&mdash; Mike Madrid, former Republican strategist and Lincoln Project co-founder</p></blockquote> <p>Cost of living appears to be at the center of the shift. A UnidosUS poll of midterm voters, a Latino advocacy group&#39;s survey, ranked grocery and food costs as the leading concern, followed by housing expenses .</p> <h2>What happens next</h2> <p>Democrats now have to hold these voters. Brandon Rottinghaus, a University of Houston political science professor, cautioned that the Latino swing &quot;will be temporary if the Democrats can&#39;t make a policy impact for them&quot; .</p> <blockquote><p>will be temporary if the Democrats can&#39;t make a policy impact for them</p><p>&mdash; Brandon Rottinghaus, political science professor, University of Houston</p></blockquote> <p>That matters because Latino voters are a large and fast-growing part of the electorate. The exit poll shows a rebound, not a guarantee.</p> <p>One caution on the data: reports vary on the exact figures. Some describe the Latino Democratic share as &#39;six in 10&#39; and others as 60% . Final numbers may shift as more survey data and official results come in.</p> <p><em>Read the original, with every source linked, at <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/story/latino-voters-swing-back-to-democrats-in-midterms-exit-poll-shows-erasing-2024-gop">thegopfiles.com</a>. Republished under The GOP Files' <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/republish">free republishing terms</a>.</em></p> <img src="https://thegopfiles.com/api/rp/latino-voters-swing-back-to-democrats-in-midterms-exit-poll-shows-erasing-2024-gop.gif" alt="" width="1" height="1" style="border:0;width:1px;height:1px">

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Sources

1. International Business Times, “Latino Voters Returned to the Democratic Party, Helping Fuel the Midterm Wave” (2026-11-03). ibtimes.com/latino-voters-democrats-cost-living-midterms-380
2. Newsweek, “What the midterm election results mean for the future of Democrats” (2026-11-04). newsweek.com/what-the-midterm-election-results-mean-for-the-

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