Michigan and Alaska surprises could decide Senate control

Two late controversies have landed on the Senate races in Michigan and Alaska. NBC News calls both states "critical chess pieces" in the fight for the majority ¹. The first is an "October surprise" and the second a "November surprise" ¹.

Why the math is tight

NBC lays out a "red wall" scenario. Democrats hold every seat they defend, including Michigan. They also flip North Carolina and unseat Republican Sen. Susan Collins in Maine. That gets them only to 49 seats ¹.

On tapeCBS Evening News · Oct 28

▶2:30

To go further, Democrats would need to win states President Donald Trump took by double digits in 2024. Those are Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio and Texas ¹. NBC says Democrats could beat the 2024 presidential margin by 10 points in all five and still lose every one ¹.

In the "blue tsunami" scenario, Democrats win all five of those states plus Michigan and Maine. That would give them a 54-46 majority, or 55 seats if South Carolina also flips ¹.

From Channel GOPPeltola: Tariffs doubled Alaska air taxi's parts billMary Peltola · 142 plays · captioned, with the source named

Michigan: a Democrat backs the Republican

Rep. Haley Stevens was the runner-up in the Democratic primary. Two days before the election, she endorsed Republican Mike Rogers instead ¹. Democrats were already uneasy about El-Sayed, a progressive, NBC reports ¹.

A Michigan loss would make the path harder. Democrats would then need to flip at least three double-digit Trump states instead of two ¹.

On tapeNBC News · Nov 3

▶21:39

Alaska: the second Dan Sullivan

The New York Times reported that Democrat Mary Peltola's campaign helped recruit a candidate with the same name as Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan. The saga is under state and federal investigation ¹. Peltola has denied any involvement ¹.

The Associated Press says the report relies partly on Peltola's former campaign manager, Elisa Rios, who was fired in August. The Times said she tried to retract her comments last week ². Peltola's campaign says it "has no involvement with either Sullivan campaign." The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, the party's Senate campaign arm, also denies involvement ².

Sullivan's campaign accused Peltola's team of working with Democratic operatives to confuse voters. Those are allegations, not findings ². The second candidate, Dan J. Sullivan, is a retired teacher from Petersburg. He has said he did not run at Democrats' request ².

Over the weekend, a federal judge dismissed the Trump administration's effort to set apart ballots cast for Dan J. Sullivan ¹. Separately, the Justice Department sued at Trump's direction to try to halt certification of a possible Peltola win. Legal experts told the AP the Times report will not change that suit ².

What happens next

Alaska allows up to 15 days for absentee ballots to arrive, if they are postmarked by Nov. 3. Counting can continue through Nov. 18, and the target date to certify is Nov. 25, the day before Thanksgiving ¹.

If the race is very close, a candidate could demand a recount, and a court fight could follow. NBC says that could leave the country in December without knowing which party controls the Senate ¹.

Trump, speaking Monday at the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool, acknowledged that the president's party historically "doesn't win the midterms" ¹. He also called this the most important midterm "in our lifetime" ¹.

That matters because the Senate confirms judges and cabinet officers and can block or pass major laws. If control rests on one slow-counting state, readers should not expect a final answer Tuesday night.

The Democrat Party has nominated the most extreme and dangerous slate of candidates in American history.

The Record

1. Oct 28, 2026The New York Times reported that Peltola's campaign was involved in recruiting a second Dan Sullivan; her campaign denied it ¹².
2. Nov 1, 2026Rep. Haley Stevens endorsed Republican Mike Rogers over Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, two days before the election ¹.
3. Nov 2, 2026Trump gave his election-eve speech at the Reflecting Pool and said the president's party "doesn't win the midterms" ¹.

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<h2>Michigan and Alaska surprises could decide Senate control</h2> <p><em>By The GOP Files Campaign Desk. This article first appeared on <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/story/michigan-and-alaska-surprises-could-decide-senate-control">The GOP Files</a> on Monday, November 2, 2026.</em></p> <p>Two late controversies have landed on the Senate races in Michigan and Alaska. NBC News calls both states &quot;critical chess pieces&quot; in the fight for the majority . The first is an &quot;October surprise&quot; and the second a &quot;November surprise&quot; .</p> <h2>Why the math is tight</h2> <p>NBC lays out a &quot;red wall&quot; scenario. Democrats hold every seat they defend, including Michigan. They also flip North Carolina and unseat Republican Sen. Susan Collins in Maine. That gets them only to 49 seats .</p> <p>To go further, Democrats would need to win states President Donald Trump took by double digits in 2024. Those are Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio and Texas . NBC says Democrats could beat the 2024 presidential margin by 10 points in all five and still lose every one .</p> <p>In the &quot;blue tsunami&quot; scenario, Democrats win all five of those states plus Michigan and Maine. That would give them a 54-46 majority, or 55 seats if South Carolina also flips .</p> <h2>Michigan: a Democrat backs the Republican</h2> <p>Rep. Haley Stevens was the runner-up in the Democratic primary. Two days before the election, she endorsed Republican Mike Rogers instead . Democrats were already uneasy about El-Sayed, a progressive, NBC reports .</p> <p>A Michigan loss would make the path harder. Democrats would then need to flip at least three double-digit Trump states instead of two .</p> <h2>Alaska: the second Dan Sullivan</h2> <p>The New York Times reported that Democrat Mary Peltola&#39;s campaign helped recruit a candidate with the same name as Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan. The saga is under state and federal investigation . Peltola has denied any involvement .</p> <p>The Associated Press says the report relies partly on Peltola&#39;s former campaign manager, Elisa Rios, who was fired in August. The Times said she tried to retract her comments last week . Peltola&#39;s campaign says it &quot;has no involvement with either Sullivan campaign.&quot; The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, the party&#39;s Senate campaign arm, also denies involvement .</p> <p>Sullivan&#39;s campaign accused Peltola&#39;s team of working with Democratic operatives to confuse voters. Those are allegations, not findings . The second candidate, Dan J. Sullivan, is a retired teacher from Petersburg. He has said he did not run at Democrats&#39; request .</p> <p>Over the weekend, a federal judge dismissed the Trump administration&#39;s effort to set apart ballots cast for Dan J. Sullivan . Separately, the Justice Department sued at Trump&#39;s direction to try to halt certification of a possible Peltola win. Legal experts told the AP the Times report will not change that suit .</p> <h2>What happens next</h2> <p>Alaska allows up to 15 days for absentee ballots to arrive, if they are postmarked by Nov. 3. Counting can continue through Nov. 18, and the target date to certify is Nov. 25, the day before Thanksgiving .</p> <p>If the race is very close, a candidate could demand a recount, and a court fight could follow. NBC says that could leave the country in December without knowing which party controls the Senate .</p> <p>Trump, speaking Monday at the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool, acknowledged that the president&#39;s party historically &quot;doesn&#39;t win the midterms&quot; . He also called this the most important midterm &quot;in our lifetime&quot; .</p> <p>That matters because the Senate confirms judges and cabinet officers and can block or pass major laws. If control rests on one slow-counting state, readers should not expect a final answer Tuesday night.</p> <blockquote><p>The Democrat Party has nominated the most extreme and dangerous slate of candidates in American history.</p><p>&mdash; Donald Trump, President, Republican</p></blockquote> <p><em>Read the original, with every source linked, at <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/story/michigan-and-alaska-surprises-could-decide-senate-control">thegopfiles.com</a>. Republished under The GOP Files' <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/republish">free republishing terms</a>.</em></p> <img src="https://thegopfiles.com/api/rp/michigan-and-alaska-surprises-could-decide-senate-control.gif" alt="" width="1" height="1" style="border:0;width:1px;height:1px">

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Sources

1. NBC News, “How the Michigan and Alaska dramas shape the fight for the Senate: From the Politics Desk” (2026-11-02). nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/michigan-alaska-dramas-sh
2. AP (via Fox19), “Report: Peltola's campaign involved in effort to recruit second Dan Sullivan for Alaska Senate race” (2026-10-28). fox19.com/2026/10/28/report-peltolas-campaign-involved-effor

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