New York Times polls show Democrats ahead in seven Senate races on eve of vote

Democrats are edging out Republicans in seven competitive Senate races ahead of Tuesday's election, according to new polling released by The New York Times and Siena University on Sunday ¹. The survey shows Democrats holding an 11-point lead in Michigan, a 7-point lead in Texas, a 6-point lead in Maine, 5-point leads in Kansas and Ohio, a 2-point lead in Alaska and a 1-point lead in Iowa ¹.

Only two of those leads sit outside the full margin of error: Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan and James Talarico in Texas. In the other five races, the Democrats were statistically tied with their Republican rivals ¹. The polling was conducted between Oct. 23 and Nov. 1 ¹.

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What the numbers show

Every Democratic candidate in the seven polls led among independent voters, though the size of that lead varied between single and double digits depending on the race ¹. Former Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio held a 9-point lead among independents, while Maine's Troy Jackson held an 11-point lead, and Talarico led Republican Ken Paxton by 30 points among that group ¹.

In Iowa, Republican Ashley Hinson narrowly edged out Democrat Josh Turek among voters between the ages of 30 and 64, though Turek held a 5-point lead among voters aged 65 and older ¹. Ninety-three percent of Democrats said they support Turek, while a similar 90 percent of Republicans said the same about Hinson ¹.

From Channel GOPTalarico: This Senate seat doesn't belong to Elon MuskJames Talarico · 192 plays · captioned, with the source named

The Hill reports that Decision Desk HQ forecasts Democrats have a 62 percent chance of taking the Senate this week, and that the party needs four seats to win back the upper chamber ¹. The copy attributes the number of seats in play to President Trump's declining approval ratings, high costs of living associated with the Iran war and the tariff war with Canada, and concerns over candidate quality ¹.

A late Democratic defection in Michigan

The polling arrived the same weekend Rep. Haley Stevens, a Michigan Democrat, endorsed Republican Mike Rogers in the Michigan Senate race, stunning party officials ². Stevens had been uninvited from a planned joint church appearance with El-Sayed, who defeated her by a slim margin in the August primary ².

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Stevens said the Democratic nominee had told her she was no longer welcome in his campaign and that she should stay away, and that she was therefore endorsing Rogers for the Senate ².

El-Sayed dismissed the endorsement when asked by reporters, saying he is focused on issues voters care about, such as the high cost of living ². Michigan Democratic Party chair Curtis Hertel said Stevens' endorsement "shows that she has abandoned everything she claims to care about" ².

The Hill reports that leaders of the party saw the endorsement as an unhelpful distraction, while some Democrats do not think it will change the trajectory of the race before Tuesday ¹.

What happens next

Voters go to the polls Tuesday. The seven states polled — Michigan, Texas, Maine, Kansas, Ohio, Alaska and Iowa — are among the races that will decide whether Democrats can flip the Senate ¹. The margins of error in the Times/Siena surveys ranged from 3.3 points in Texas to 4.8 points in Alaska ¹.

That matters because five of the seven Democratic leads are smaller than those margins, meaning the surveys alone cannot establish a Democratic advantage in those states. The two leads that clear the margin — Michigan and Texas — are the ones the Times/Siena polling can describe as outside the statistical tie ¹.

The Record

1. Oct 23, 2026The New York Times/Siena University polling of seven Senate races began ¹.
2. Nov 1, 2026The Times/Siena polling concluded, and Rep. Haley Stevens endorsed Republican Mike Rogers in Michigan ¹².
3. Nov 3, 2026Election Day ¹.

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<h2>New York Times polls show Democrats ahead in seven Senate races on eve of vote</h2> <p><em>By The GOP Files Campaign Desk. This article first appeared on <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/story/new-york-times-polls-show-democrats-ahead-in-seven-senate-races-on-eve-of-vote">The GOP Files</a> on Sunday, November 1, 2026.</em></p> <p>Democrats are edging out Republicans in seven competitive Senate races ahead of Tuesday&#39;s election, according to new polling released by The New York Times and Siena University on Sunday . The survey shows Democrats holding an 11-point lead in Michigan, a 7-point lead in Texas, a 6-point lead in Maine, 5-point leads in Kansas and Ohio, a 2-point lead in Alaska and a 1-point lead in Iowa .</p> <p>Only two of those leads sit outside the full margin of error: Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan and James Talarico in Texas. In the other five races, the Democrats were statistically tied with their Republican rivals . The polling was conducted between Oct. 23 and Nov. 1 .</p> <h2>What the numbers show</h2> <p>Every Democratic candidate in the seven polls led among independent voters, though the size of that lead varied between single and double digits depending on the race . Former Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio held a 9-point lead among independents, while Maine&#39;s Troy Jackson held an 11-point lead, and Talarico led Republican Ken Paxton by 30 points among that group .</p> <p>In Iowa, Republican Ashley Hinson narrowly edged out Democrat Josh Turek among voters between the ages of 30 and 64, though Turek held a 5-point lead among voters aged 65 and older . Ninety-three percent of Democrats said they support Turek, while a similar 90 percent of Republicans said the same about Hinson .</p> <p>The Hill reports that Decision Desk HQ forecasts Democrats have a 62 percent chance of taking the Senate this week, and that the party needs four seats to win back the upper chamber . The copy attributes the number of seats in play to President Trump&#39;s declining approval ratings, high costs of living associated with the Iran war and the tariff war with Canada, and concerns over candidate quality .</p> <h2>A late Democratic defection in Michigan</h2> <p>The polling arrived the same weekend Rep. Haley Stevens, a Michigan Democrat, endorsed Republican Mike Rogers in the Michigan Senate race, stunning party officials . Stevens had been uninvited from a planned joint church appearance with El-Sayed, who defeated her by a slim margin in the August primary .</p> <p>Stevens said the Democratic nominee had told her she was no longer welcome in his campaign and that she should stay away, and that she was therefore endorsing Rogers for the Senate .</p> <p>El-Sayed dismissed the endorsement when asked by reporters, saying he is focused on issues voters care about, such as the high cost of living . Michigan Democratic Party chair Curtis Hertel said Stevens&#39; endorsement &quot;shows that she has abandoned everything she claims to care about&quot; .</p> <p>The Hill reports that leaders of the party saw the endorsement as an unhelpful distraction, while some Democrats do not think it will change the trajectory of the race before Tuesday .</p> <h2>What happens next</h2> <p>Voters go to the polls Tuesday. The seven states polled — Michigan, Texas, Maine, Kansas, Ohio, Alaska and Iowa — are among the races that will decide whether Democrats can flip the Senate . The margins of error in the Times/Siena surveys ranged from 3.3 points in Texas to 4.8 points in Alaska .</p> <p>That matters because five of the seven Democratic leads are smaller than those margins, meaning the surveys alone cannot establish a Democratic advantage in those states. The two leads that clear the margin — Michigan and Texas — are the ones the Times/Siena polling can describe as outside the statistical tie .</p> <p><em>Read the original, with every source linked, at <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/story/new-york-times-polls-show-democrats-ahead-in-seven-senate-races-on-eve-of-vote">thegopfiles.com</a>. Republished under The GOP Files' <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/republish">free republishing terms</a>.</em></p> <img src="https://thegopfiles.com/api/rp/new-york-times-polls-show-democrats-ahead-in-seven-senate-races-on-eve-of-vote.gif" alt="" width="1" height="1" style="border:0;width:1px;height:1px">

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Sources

1. The Hill, “Democrats edge out Republicans in 7 heated Senate races: NYT polls” (2026-11-02). thehill.com/homenews/6187749-democrats-edge-out-gop-senate-p
2. PBS NewsHour, “Turmoil in Michigan's Senate race as Democrat Haley Stevens appears with Republican Mike Rogers” (2026-11-01). pbs.org/newshour/politics/turmoil-in-michigans-senate-race-a
3. ABC News, “Turmoil in Michigan's Senate race as Democrat Haley Stevens appears with Republican Mike Rogers” (2026-11-01). abcnews.com/Politics/wireStory/turmoil-michigans-senate-race

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