NYT/Siena poll has Flanagan up 14 points on Tafoya in Minnesota Senate race

A new New York Times/Siena poll of likely voters finds Democrat Peggy Flanagan ahead of Republican Michele Tafoya, 54% to 40%, in Minnesota's U.S. Senate race ¹. The poll was released Wednesday, Oct. 28, five days before the Nov. 3 midterm election ¹.

Siena is the Siena College Research Institute, which runs the poll with the Times. Its executive director, Don Levy, summed up the finding in plain terms ¹.

In Minnesota Democrat Peggy Flanagan enjoys a 14-point lead over Republican Michele Tafoya

A bigger lead than earlier polls showed

The same poll found Democrat Amy Klobuchar leading Republican Lisa Demuth for governor, 56% to 38% ¹. Both races were measured among likely voters in Minnesota ¹.

Earlier nonpartisan polls showed a much narrower race. One news report on the new poll said previous surveys had Flanagan ahead by only a few points ². Newsweek, in an earlier roundup, listed a KSTP/SurveyUSA poll from August with Flanagan at 46% and Tafoya at 41% ³. It also listed a Quantus Insights poll from Sept. 8 to 10 with Flanagan at 48.2% and Tafoya at 44.4% ³.

From Channel GOPOpponent endorsed by Donald TrumpPeggy Flanagan · 1.4K plays · captioned, with the source named

The Tafoya campaign had called the race close. Her campaign manager, Christine Snell, said in that earlier Newsweek report:

This race is already a dead heat.

Who is running

The seat is open because Democratic Sen. Tina Smith decided not to seek reelection ². Flanagan won the Democratic primary in August, defeating Rep. Angie Craig ³. The Crypto Briefing report noted that no Republican has won a Minnesota Senate seat since 2002 ².

Our reading: a 14-point lead is far larger than the few-point edge in earlier surveys. A single poll can land away from the pack. The poll does show Democrats with strong numbers at the top of the Minnesota ballot in the final week.

What happens next

Minnesotans vote Tuesday, Nov. 3 ³. In-person early voting began Oct. 16, so many ballots may already be cast ³. The Siena page does not list the poll's sample size or margin of error, so readers should treat the exact 14-point gap with caution ¹.

Senate control may hinge on a handful of close states, and Minnesota had looked like a tighter contest than its Democratic history suggested. This result, if it holds, would take one seat off the Republican target list.

The Record

1. Aug 12, 2026Peggy Flanagan won the Democratic Senate primary in Minnesota, defeating Rep. Angie Craig ³.
2. Oct 16, 2026In-person early voting began in Minnesota ³.
3. Oct 28, 2026NYT/Siena poll shows Flanagan 54%, Tafoya 40% among likely voters ¹.

Sources

1. Siena College Research Institute, “NYTimes/Siena Poll of Likely Voters: Florida, Minnesota and South Carolina” (2026-10-28). sri.siena.edu/2026/10/28/nytimes-siena-poll-of-likely-voters
2. Crypto Briefing, “Flanagan leads Tafoya by 14 points in Minnesota Senate race: NYT poll” (2026-10-28). cryptobriefing.com/flanagan-leads-tafoya-by-14-points-in-min
3. Newsweek, “Peggy Flanagan's chances of losing to Michele Tafoya in Minnesota polls” (2026-09-11). newsweek.com/peggy-flanagans-chances-of-losing-to-michele-ta

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