Pollsters call most key midterm races correctly after years of misses

Political polling experts said the industry had a "great night" after surveys correctly foresaw much of the Democratic wave that swept the midterm elections, The Guardian reported Thursday ¹. Polls failed to capture the scale of Democratic victories in only a handful of Senate races, including Texas and New Hampshire ¹.

Ashley Koning, director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University, said the most credible pre-election polls "correctly saw the direction of every race that's been called so far" ¹. She added that "the polls underestimated some Democrats this year" ¹.

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The final New York Times/Siena Poll, published Sunday, put Democrats ahead in Senate races in Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas, all seats they ultimately won ¹. In several of those states, Democrats outperformed their polling numbers, reversing a recent trend in which surveys underestimated support for Republicans, especially under Trump ¹.

A separate comparison by Newsweek of RealClearPolling's final averages with Associated Press results found the biggest misses came in races where polls understated Democratic support ². In Texas, Democrat James Talarico led Republican Ken Paxton by 2.6 points in the final average, 49.1 percent to 46.5 percent, but the AP called the race for Talarico by 12.1 points, 55.1 percent to 43 percent — a 9.5-point polling error ².

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The clearest wrong-leader miss was the Texas governor's race, where the polling average favored Republican Greg Abbott by 2.3 points, 49.7 percent to 47.4 percent, before Democrat Gina Hinojosa won by 7.1 points, 52.8 percent to 45.7 percent ². In South Carolina's Senate race, the average gave Republican Darline Graham Nordone a 2.6-point lead before Democrat Annie Andrews prevailed by 4.4 points, 51.1 percent to 46.7 percent ².

Diana Mutz, director of the Institute for the Study of Citizens and Politics at the University of Pennsylvania, described the pre-election polls as "pretty good" ¹. She said one of the biggest challenges for pollsters was knowing who is actually going to turn out to vote ¹.

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Christopher Wlezien, a professor of government at the University of Texas at Austin, said accuracy varied by the size of individual victories ¹. "Some were much closer than others," he said ¹.

The polling industry has also grappled with decreasing response rates. In September, the Pew Research Center reported that rates had fallen from 36 percent in 1997 to the low single digits in recent years, and pointed to growing evidence that Republicans had become less likely than Democrats to participate ¹.

Sean Freeder, who oversees the Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida, said he believed this was likely the first time in more than a decade that polls "underestimated the Democratic vote rather than the Republican vote share" ¹. He said the result might increase pollsters' willingness to trust and release their findings ¹.

Costas Panagopoulos, a distinguished professor of political science at Northeastern University, cautioned before the election that a numerical lead inside the margin of error is not proof a candidate is ahead ². "A 48-to-44 race that's within the margin of error is not necessarily implying a lead for one of the candidates," he told Newsweek ².

The pattern is that polls this year mostly got the winners right but often understated how well Democrats did. That matters because polling averages helped determine where parties spent money, which candidates received national attention, and how forecasters assessed control of Congress before Election Day ².

Newsweek noted that its comparisons remain preliminary while final ballots are counted in several states ². Senate races in Alaska and Mississippi were still unresolved as of Wednesday morning ².

The Record

1. Nov 1, 2026The final New York Times/Siena Poll put Democrats ahead in Senate races in Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas ¹.
2. Nov 3, 2026Democrats flipped both chambers of Congress in the midterm elections ¹.
3. Nov 4, 2026Senate races in Alaska and Mississippi remained unresolved as of Wednesday morning ².

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<h2>Pollsters call most key midterm races correctly after years of misses</h2> <p><em>By The GOP Files Campaign Desk. This article first appeared on <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/story/pollsters-call-most-key-midterm-races-correctly-after-years-of-misses">The GOP Files</a> on Thursday, November 5, 2026.</em></p> <p>Political polling experts said the industry had a &quot;great night&quot; after surveys correctly foresaw much of the Democratic wave that swept the midterm elections, The Guardian reported Thursday . Polls failed to capture the scale of Democratic victories in only a handful of Senate races, including Texas and New Hampshire .</p> <p>Ashley Koning, director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University, said the most credible pre-election polls &quot;correctly saw the direction of every race that&#39;s been called so far&quot; . She added that &quot;the polls underestimated some Democrats this year&quot; .</p> <p>The final New York Times/Siena Poll, published Sunday, put Democrats ahead in Senate races in Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas, all seats they ultimately won . In several of those states, Democrats outperformed their polling numbers, reversing a recent trend in which surveys underestimated support for Republicans, especially under Trump .</p> <p>A separate comparison by Newsweek of RealClearPolling&#39;s final averages with Associated Press results found the biggest misses came in races where polls understated Democratic support . In Texas, Democrat James Talarico led Republican Ken Paxton by 2.6 points in the final average, 49.1 percent to 46.5 percent, but the AP called the race for Talarico by 12.1 points, 55.1 percent to 43 percent — a 9.5-point polling error .</p> <p>The clearest wrong-leader miss was the Texas governor&#39;s race, where the polling average favored Republican Greg Abbott by 2.3 points, 49.7 percent to 47.4 percent, before Democrat Gina Hinojosa won by 7.1 points, 52.8 percent to 45.7 percent . In South Carolina&#39;s Senate race, the average gave Republican Darline Graham Nordone a 2.6-point lead before Democrat Annie Andrews prevailed by 4.4 points, 51.1 percent to 46.7 percent .</p> <p>Diana Mutz, director of the Institute for the Study of Citizens and Politics at the University of Pennsylvania, described the pre-election polls as &quot;pretty good&quot; . She said one of the biggest challenges for pollsters was knowing who is actually going to turn out to vote .</p> <p>Christopher Wlezien, a professor of government at the University of Texas at Austin, said accuracy varied by the size of individual victories . &quot;Some were much closer than others,&quot; he said .</p> <p>The polling industry has also grappled with decreasing response rates. In September, the Pew Research Center reported that rates had fallen from 36 percent in 1997 to the low single digits in recent years, and pointed to growing evidence that Republicans had become less likely than Democrats to participate .</p> <p>Sean Freeder, who oversees the Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida, said he believed this was likely the first time in more than a decade that polls &quot;underestimated the Democratic vote rather than the Republican vote share&quot; . He said the result might increase pollsters&#39; willingness to trust and release their findings .</p> <p>Costas Panagopoulos, a distinguished professor of political science at Northeastern University, cautioned before the election that a numerical lead inside the margin of error is not proof a candidate is ahead . &quot;A 48-to-44 race that&#39;s within the margin of error is not necessarily implying a lead for one of the candidates,&quot; he told Newsweek .</p> <p>The pattern is that polls this year mostly got the winners right but often understated how well Democrats did. That matters because polling averages helped determine where parties spent money, which candidates received national attention, and how forecasters assessed control of Congress before Election Day .</p> <p>Newsweek noted that its comparisons remain preliminary while final ballots are counted in several states . Senate races in Alaska and Mississippi were still unresolved as of Wednesday morning .</p> <p><em>Read the original, with every source linked, at <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/story/pollsters-call-most-key-midterm-races-correctly-after-years-of-misses">thegopfiles.com</a>. Republished under The GOP Files' <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/republish">free republishing terms</a>.</em></p> <img src="https://thegopfiles.com/api/rp/pollsters-call-most-key-midterm-races-correctly-after-years-of-misses.gif" alt="" width="1" height="1" style="border:0;width:1px;height:1px">

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Sources

1. The Guardian, “Polling experts hail ‘great night’ after correctly calling most key US midterm election races” (2026-11-05). theguardian.com/us-news/2026/nov/05/polls-midterms-results-a
2. Newsweek, “Biggest Polling Misses of the 2026 Midterm Elections” (2026-11-04). newsweek.com/biggest-polling-misses-2026-midterm-elections-1
3. CBS News, “Why some key races won't be decided on election night” (2026-11-04). cbsnews.com/news/2026-midterm-elections-race-call-timing/

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