Religious nones outnumber white evangelicals by 10 points among 2026 midterm voters

Religious nones outnumbered white evangelicals by ten percentage points among voters in Tuesday's midterm election, according to Axios. The gap was one point in 2024 ¹. Nones are people who tell pollsters they have no religion, including atheists, agnostics and those who say nothing in particular.

White evangelical or born-again Christians made up 17% of voters this week. That is down from 23% in 2024 and 24% in 2022, Axios reported. It drew on preliminary 2026 voter polling and earlier exit polls ¹. Because the 2026 numbers are preliminary, they could shift when final survey results are released.

A smaller share of the country

The voting shift follows a drop in the population. White evangelical Protestants are 13% of American adults, down from 23% in 2006, according to the Public Religion Research Institute's 2025 Census of American Religion ¹.

Robert P. Jones, the nonpartisan institute's founder and president, pointed to the Midwest. He told Axios that white evangelicals are outnumbered there by white mainline Protestants ¹.

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In most of those midwestern states, the white evangelicals are outnumbered in the population by the white mainline Protestants,

What polls showed before Election Day

A Pew Research Center survey taken Sept. 28 to Oct. 4 gives a sense of how far apart the two groups are. Among registered voters with no religion, 61% favored the Democratic House candidate and 17% the Republican ².

Among white evangelical Protestants, 73% favored the Republican and 12% the Democrat. Pew said it is the only religious group in which a majority prefers the GOP candidate ².

Even so, enthusiasm for President Trump has cooled in that group. Pew found 58% of white evangelicals approved of his job performance, down from 78% in January and February 2025. Among people with no religion, approval was 17% ².

Today, White evangelical Protestants are the only religious group in which more people approve than disapprove.

What happens next

Axios noted that the religious right's smaller footprint has not yet weakened its influence in Washington ¹. Republicans still hold the White House for now, and white evangelicals remain the most loyal Republican religious bloc.

That matters because a party that leans on one shrinking group has to win more votes elsewhere. The pattern is clear in the numbers: a bloc that was nearly a quarter of voters in 2022 was 17% this week ¹.

Axios describes a mathematical collapse for the era of white evangelical dominance in religious politics ¹. That is the outlet's analysis, not a final count. Pollsters and parties will spend the coming months testing whether this week's gap holds in 2028.

Pew's survey also covered all registered voters, not just those who turned out. It is a pre-election snapshot and not an exit poll ².

The Record

1. Jan 1, 2006White evangelical Protestants were 23% of American adults, per PRRI's 2025 census ¹.
2. Nov 8, 2022White evangelicals were 24% of midterm voters ¹.
3. Oct 13, 2026Pew reported 58% of white evangelicals approved of Trump, down from 78% in early 2025 ².
4. Nov 3, 2026White evangelicals were 17% of midterm voters; nones outnumbered them by 10 points ¹.

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<h2>Religious nones outnumber white evangelicals by 10 points among 2026 midterm voters</h2> <p><em>By The GOP Files Investigations Desk. This article first appeared on <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/story/religious-nones-outnumber-white-evangelicals-by-10-points-among-2026-midterm-voters">The GOP Files</a> on Friday, November 6, 2026.</em></p> <p>Religious nones outnumbered white evangelicals by ten percentage points among voters in Tuesday&#39;s midterm election, according to Axios. The gap was one point in 2024 . Nones are people who tell pollsters they have no religion, including atheists, agnostics and those who say nothing in particular.</p> <p>White evangelical or born-again Christians made up 17% of voters this week. That is down from 23% in 2024 and 24% in 2022, Axios reported. It drew on preliminary 2026 voter polling and earlier exit polls . Because the 2026 numbers are preliminary, they could shift when final survey results are released.</p> <h2>A smaller share of the country</h2> <p>The voting shift follows a drop in the population. White evangelical Protestants are 13% of American adults, down from 23% in 2006, according to the Public Religion Research Institute&#39;s 2025 Census of American Religion .</p> <p>Robert P. Jones, the nonpartisan institute&#39;s founder and president, pointed to the Midwest. He told Axios that white evangelicals are outnumbered there by white mainline Protestants .</p> <blockquote><p>In most of those midwestern states, the white evangelicals are outnumbered in the population by the white mainline Protestants,</p><p>&mdash; Robert P. Jones, president and founder, Public Religion Research Institute</p></blockquote> <h2>What polls showed before Election Day</h2> <p>A Pew Research Center survey taken Sept. 28 to Oct. 4 gives a sense of how far apart the two groups are. Among registered voters with no religion, 61% favored the Democratic House candidate and 17% the Republican .</p> <p>Among white evangelical Protestants, 73% favored the Republican and 12% the Democrat. Pew said it is the only religious group in which a majority prefers the GOP candidate .</p> <p>Even so, enthusiasm for President Trump has cooled in that group. Pew found 58% of white evangelicals approved of his job performance, down from 78% in January and February 2025. Among people with no religion, approval was 17% .</p> <blockquote><p>Today, White evangelical Protestants are the only religious group in which more people approve than disapprove.</p><p>&mdash; Pew Research Center, survey analysis, Oct. 13, 2026</p></blockquote> <h2>What happens next</h2> <p>Axios noted that the religious right&#39;s smaller footprint has not yet weakened its influence in Washington . Republicans still hold the White House for now, and white evangelicals remain the most loyal Republican religious bloc.</p> <p>That matters because a party that leans on one shrinking group has to win more votes elsewhere. The pattern is clear in the numbers: a bloc that was nearly a quarter of voters in 2022 was 17% this week .</p> <p>Axios describes a mathematical collapse for the era of white evangelical dominance in religious politics . That is the outlet&#39;s analysis, not a final count. Pollsters and parties will spend the coming months testing whether this week&#39;s gap holds in 2028.</p> <p>Pew&#39;s survey also covered all registered voters, not just those who turned out. It is a pre-election snapshot and not an exit poll .</p> <p><em>Read the original, with every source linked, at <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/story/religious-nones-outnumber-white-evangelicals-by-10-points-among-2026-midterm-voters">thegopfiles.com</a>. Republished under The GOP Files' <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/republish">free republishing terms</a>.</em></p> <img src="https://thegopfiles.com/api/rp/religious-nones-outnumber-white-evangelicals-by-10-points-among-2026-midterm-voters.gif" alt="" width="1" height="1" style="border:0;width:1px;height:1px">

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Sources

1. Axios, “White evangelicals lose electoral ground while religious nones expand their influence” (2026-11-06). axios.com/2026/11/06/white-evangelicals-shrinking-electorate
2. Pew Research Center, “Religious groups differ widely in their 2026 midterm preferences” (2026-10-13). pewresearch.org/short-reads/2026/10/13/religious-groups-diff

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