Saturday, October 31, 2026 Vol. I · No. 10 · Morning Edition Print size
Election Day 3 days to Nov. 3 Make your plan → The GOP Files Receipts on the Republican-run Washington · Sourced · Dated · On the record On Instagram 444K plays and counting @thegopfiles →
The Wire
On tape: Republican Sen. Thom Tillis: "I believe that the House is lost." And he says Trump needs to own it. Democrats in tight races criticize Biden's border record in final weekend ads Rogers backed Trump's tariffs and Iran war. Now he says end the Canada fight and the war On tape: Rep. Steve Cohen: "More than half" of the Epstein files still have not been released. Qatari mediators go to Tehran to revive U.S.-Iran talks days before the midterms On tape: Trump says Scott Colom sits on a defund-the-police board. Colom: "I don't even sit on any boards right now." Rubio cancels G20 ministers' group photo after UK, Australia refuse to pose with Russia On tape: Goldman asks a sheriff about a murder victim's mother. His reply: "You're a degenerate." Tech selloff deepens Friday as Nasdaq has its worst day since June, days before midterms Hilton closes California governor bid by telling voters it's OK to vote Republican On tape: Republican Sen. Thom Tillis: "I believe that the House is lost." And he says Trump needs to own it. Democrats in tight races criticize Biden's border record in final weekend ads Rogers backed Trump's tariffs and Iran war. Now he says end the Canada fight and the war On tape: Rep. Steve Cohen: "More than half" of the Epstein files still have not been released. Qatari mediators go to Tehran to revive U.S.-Iran talks days before the midterms On tape: Trump says Scott Colom sits on a defund-the-police board. Colom: "I don't even sit on any boards right now." Rubio cancels G20 ministers' group photo after UK, Australia refuse to pose with Russia On tape: Goldman asks a sheriff about a murder victim's mother. His reply: "You're a degenerate." Tech selloff deepens Friday as Nasdaq has its worst day since June, days before midterms Hilton closes California governor bid by telling voters it's OK to vote Republican

Then vs. Now · File No. 261031-285

Rogers backed Trump's tariffs and Iran war. Now he says end the Canada fight and the war

Days before Michigan votes, Republican Mike Rogers says he breaks with Trump when it helps the state. His own words from earlier this year show how far he has moved, with gas now at $4.57 a gallon.

Every quote in this story (17) was matched word for word against its source. How we work

Mike Rogers (Michigan politician)
Mike Rogers (Michigan politician). Photo: P.J. Siquig, Public domain

In the closing days of Michigan's Senate race, Republican nominee Mike Rogers says he will back President Trump when it helps Michigan and break with him when it does not. His main example is the tariffs on Canada 3.

His earlier statements read differently. A Bridge Michigan fact check, updated Oct. 28, found that Rogers supported Trump's decision to go to war with Iran and has only recently called for a quick end to it 1. A second Bridge review found that El-Sayed was right that Rogers had changed his position on the war 2.

On tapeWXYZ-TV Detroit | Channel 7 · Oct 22
Recap of Michigan Senate debate where Rogers and El-Sayed clash over tariffs, Iran, Trump ties.Video: WXYZ-TV Detroit | Channel 7 on YouTube, “Michigan Senate Debate Recap: Rogers vs. El-Sayed on Tariffs, Iran, Trump Ties”. It plays from YouTube when you press play.

The Iran war: what he said then

On Feb. 28, the war's first day, Rogers made his case in a post on X, the site formerly known as Twitter 1.

Iran is an imminent threat to our country—and must not have a nuclear weapon.
Mike Rogers, Republican U.S. Senate nominee, R-Mich.1

On March 17, at an event at Oakland University, he told an attendee "we've got plenty of oil" 1. On May 31 he called the conflict a "win-win-win," while adding "I want it over" 1.

From Channel GOPEl-Sayed: my faith isn't raising your gas pricesAbdul El-Sayed · 134 plays · captioned, with the source named

On July 31, CBS Detroit asked him whether Congress should authorize the president to keep fighting. He answered: "I don't mind giving the president authority to continue" 1.

The Iran war: what he says now

On Sept. 21, Rogers posted a social media video with a new message 1. Reuters noted that this reversal came two weeks before he called for an end to the Canada tariff fight 5.

The war with Iran needs to end and end quickly.
Mike Rogers, Republican U.S. Senate nominee, R-Mich.1

Bridge reported that his campaign did not say how he would help end the war if elected 1. He has proposed a temporary ban on diesel exports and backs suspending gas taxes 1.

The fuel numbers explain the urgency. Michigan gas averaged about $3.00 a gallon before the war, according to Bridge, and prices rose after Iran shut the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil shipping route 1. AAA, the auto club, put Michigan regular at $4.57 on Saturday, up from $2.99 a year ago, and diesel at $6.69, up from $3.73 11.

Tariffs: from "masterful" to "end this"

Tariffs are taxes on imported goods. Last year, Rogers called Trump's tariff strategy masterful, and as recently as August he said tariffs were necessary when countries cheat American workers 2. In September, a campaign statement said: "President Trump is right to put America first, and tariffs are necessary, but are not a one-size-fits-all solution" 6.

Then came his Oct. 7 ad, filmed in a bar. In it he says "Here in Michigan, we know that Canada is not our enemy" 5. The ad never mentions Trump 4.

We need to end this tariff war now.
Mike Rogers, Republican U.S. Senate nominee, R-Mich.5

Trump, asked about the ad, said he viewed Rogers as wanting "Canada to make a deal" 8. After the candidates' first debate, Rogers told reporters it was time to wrap up the fight with Canada, but he did not renounce tariffs: "My position on tariffs is simple: If they work for Michigan, I am for them" 7. So the break is narrower than the ad sounds. It covers one fight with one country, not the policy itself.

The costs in Michigan are real. In August, the U.S. put 50% tariffs on roughly $20 billion of Canadian goods, including steel and aluminum, and Canada retaliated 4. Canada is Michigan's top export market, and Detroit's three automakers reported about $6.5 billion in tariff-related costs in 2025, by CNBC's count 4. Gov. Gretchen Whitmer's administration estimated tariffs cost Michigan households about $1,000 a year 4.

Rogers has also claimed tariffs "saved Traverse City cherries" 2. Bridge found little direct evidence for that. A state report showed fresh cherry exports fell 89% in the first half of 2025, and several reports credited 2026's higher prices mainly to good weather and other factors 2.

There is one more Canada item for older readers. Bridge reported that Rogers voted at least four times in the House against drug reimportation proposals, meaning bringing prescription drugs in from Canada 2. It also found he later supported legislation on access to generic drugs, and it rated both sides' claims largely true 2.

What his opponent says

El-Sayed, the Democratic nominee, answered the tariff ad directly 6. At the final debate he added: "If you like the way things have been for the last two years, that's what Mike Rogers wants" 7. He also argues Rogers would be a rubber stamp for Trump 3.

Abdul El-Sayed
cheerled this tariff war from the beginning, and you're flip-flopping now because your poll numbers are in free fall
Abdul El-Sayed, Democratic U.S. Senate nominee, D-Mich.6

"Free fall" is El-Sayed's phrase, and the polls are less dramatic than that 6. A Glengariff Group poll for WDIV and The Detroit News, taken Oct. 19-22, had El-Sayed at 51.4% and Rogers at 45.1%, with a margin of error of 4 points 9. An AARP Michigan poll in August had the race at 48% to 47% 10.

The pattern

Rogers is not alone. A Reuters review found two-thirds of Republicans in competitive House and Senate races have broken with Trump on policy or sought distance from him this year 5. Pollster Richard Czuba said Rogers "was a free-trade Republican until being a free-trade Republican put him at odds with Trump" 4. An early September Glengariff poll found 64.2% of likely Michigan voters opposed Trump's Canadian tariffs 4.

Politicians are allowed to change their minds, and Rogers's defenders can say he spoke up before Election Day. But he is a candidate, not a sitting senator, so his statements are the only record there is to check 8. Michigan's Republican nominee for governor, Rep. John James, does have votes: Bridge counted six against resolutions to end the war 1.

That matters because a senator would get a vote on those questions. The fair test for a voter is what Rogers would do in January, and on the war, his campaign has not told Bridge how he would help end it 1.

It matters most among older voters. The August AARP poll had Rogers ahead by 9 points among Michigan voters 50 and older, and by 33 points among those 50-plus who split their tickets 10. Those are the voters most likely to hear the new message, and they have the most reason to compare it with the old one.

The Record

  1. On the Iran war's first day, Rogers calls Iran an imminent threat on X 1
  2. Rogers calls the war a "win-win-win" and adds "I want it over" 1
  3. Rogers says in a social media video that the war needs to end quickly 1
  4. Rogers releases an ad calling for an end to the tariff war with Canada, without mentioning Trump 45
  5. NPR reports Rogers's closing pitch: back Trump when it helps Michigan, break with him when it does not 3

Sources

  1. Bridge Michigan, “Fact check: Mike Rogers, John James shift positions on Iran war” (2026-10-28). bridgemi.com/michigan-politics/fact-check-mike-rogers-john-j
  2. Bridge Michigan, “Fact check: Abdul El-Sayed and Mike Rogers debate Trump, tariffs, war, more” (2026-10-28). bridgemi.com/michigan-politics/fact-check-abdul-el-sayed-and
  3. NPR, “Candidates are making their closing arguments in the heated Michigan Senate race” (2026-10-30). text.npr.org/nx-s1-6014550
  4. CNBC, “How Trump's tariffs and Iran war are becoming liabilities in Michigan's Senate race” (2026-10-14). cnbc.com/2026/10/14/mike-rogers-trump-tariffs-michigan-senat
  5. Reuters via CP24, “Michigan Republican Rogers calls for end to Canada tariff fight, breaking with Trump again” (2026-10-07). cp24.com/news/canada/2026/10/07/michigan-republican-rogers-c
  6. Newsweek, “Mike Rogers turns on Trump's tariffs: what Michigan Republican said before” (2026-10-07). newsweek.com/mike-rogers-turns-on-trumps-tariffs-what-michig
  7. Newsweek, “Rogers, El-Sayed Clash Over War, Trump in Final Michigan Senate Debate” (2026-10-22). newsweek.com/michigan-senate-debate-mike-rogers-abdul-el-say
  8. HuffPost, “Mike Rogers Flip-Flops On Canada Tariffs And, Oh, The Backlash” (2026-10-07). huffpost.com/entry/gop-senator-demands-end-to-canada-tariffs
  9. WDIV ClickOnDetroit, “Democratic candidate El-Sayed leads Michigan US Senate race, new poll finds” (2026-10-27). clickondetroit.com/news/local/2026/10/27/democratic-candidat
  10. FOX 2 Detroit, “Abdul El-Sayed and Mike Rogers latest polls” (2026-08-21). fox2detroit.com/news/el-sayed-rogers-michigan-senate-polls-s
  11. AAA, “Michigan average gas prices” (2026-10-31). gasprices.aaa.com/?state=MI

Found an error? Tell the newsroom. Corrections are noted at the top of the story.

More from the files

Delivered free to your door*

The Morning Edition

One short email at 7 a.m. Eastern: the day's top files, one clip worth your time, and the race to watch. Plain English, large type, no clutter.

*Your inbox. Free. Unsubscribe with one click, any time.