Maine Senate race tied as Trump and prices shape final days for Collins and Jackson

Maine's Senate race is down to a question about President Trump and the cost of living, with five days until the Nov. 3 election. Incumbent Republican Susan Collins, seeking a sixth term, faces Democrat Troy Jackson, a former state Senate president and lumberjack who ran a 101-day campaign. Recent polling shows them neck and neck ¹.

A Fox News poll of 1,514 likely voters, taken Oct. 16 to 20, had both candidates at 49%. The margin of error was plus or minus 2.5 percentage points ². Democrats see Maine as critical to their effort to retake the Senate ¹.

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Prices and the Trump factor

Lobster fisher Christian LaMontagne, 27, says his weekly fuel bill in Casco Bay has doubled from about $350 to nearly $700 since the U.S. war with Iran began in late February. He is still undecided ¹.

Heating oil is another flashpoint. Nearly half of Maine households rely on it, and the state's energy department puts the average price above $6 a gallon, a record ¹.

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Collins is the only Republican senator up for re-election in a state Trump lost in 2024. A Marist poll found 42% of likely Maine voters approve of Trump's job performance. It also found 41% say their congressional vote is mainly a vote against him ¹. The Fox poll put Trump's approval at 37% ².

That Fox poll found a majority of likely voters concerned that Collins votes with Trump too often, including 42% who were "extremely concerned." About one in five likely voters who disapprove of Trump still back her ².

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What each candidate says

Jackson argues that Collins's reputation for independence hides a record that helps Trump. He has also cited a September ProPublica report that the FBI investigated Collins over an alleged pay-to-play scheme involving a campaign donor. According to the report, the inquiry faded after Trump dismantled the Justice Department division handling it. Collins's office called the report "categorically false" and said no wrongdoing was ever alleged against her campaign ¹.

The reality is that 100% of the time, when Donald Trump needs her, Susan Collins is going to be there

Collins points to her votes against repealing the Affordable Care Act and against Pete Hegseth's nomination as defense secretary. She also voted to impeach Trump after Jan. 6 and backed a war powers resolution on Iran. Her campaign did not answer the Guardian's request for an interview ¹.

I decide my votes on what I believe is best for Maine and for America, not on whether or not any president, and I’ve worked with five, is for it or against it

A New York Times analysis found Collins has broken with her party 17% of the time in this Congress. Those breaks have rarely slowed Trump's agenda, the analysis found. She opposed final passage of his tax-and-spending law, which makes steep Medicaid cuts, but supported a procedural vote that let it reach the Senate floor ¹.

What happens next

Collins has beaten the polls before. In 2020 she won by nine points over Sara Gideon despite trailing in most surveys, helped by voters who backed both her and Joe Biden ¹. Her pitch this year stresses seniority: a Pentagon contract for Bath Iron Works, 300,000 barrels of released heating oil and tariff exemptions for Maine industries ¹.

Dan Shea, a Colby College government professor, said the contest may turn less on Jackson than on whether voters can accept giving Trump one more Senate vote ¹. That matters because the race may show how much anger over prices can outweigh a senator's local record.

The Record

1. Oct 20, 2026Fox News poll fieldwork ends with Collins and Jackson tied at 49% among likely Maine voters ².
2. Oct 30, 2026The Guardian reports that costs and views of Trump dominate the final days of the Maine race ¹.
3. Nov 3, 2026Election Day; Maine voters choose between Collins and Jackson ¹.

Sources

1. The Guardian, “'The status quo sucks': affordability and Trump loom over final stretch of Maine's tight Senate race” (2026-10-30). theguardian.com/us-news/2026/oct/30/maine-senate-race-afford
2. Bangor Daily News, “Fox News poll: Susan Collins, Troy Jackson tied” (2026-10-22). bangordailynews.com/2026/10/22/politics/fox-news-poll-susan-

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