Minnesota early vote tops 886,000, rising fastest in seven Trump-won rural counties

Minnesota's early voting set a record, and the growth is fastest in seven rural counties that Donald Trump previously won. Newsweek reported that this is a potentially encouraging sign for Republican Michele Tafoya in her Senate race against Democrat Peggy Flanagan ¹. Some analysts warn that early-vote data does not reliably predict which party benefits once every ballot is counted ¹.

The open seat belongs to Democratic Sen. Tina Smith, who is retiring when her term ends on January 3 ¹. Minnesota's Secretary of State's Office reported that more than 886,000 people had voted early, in person or by absentee ballot, as of Sunday ¹. In 2022, the last non-presidential election, early voting totaled 687,062 ballots ¹.

Where the growth is

Large numbers of ballots came in from Minneapolis and other Democratic areas ¹. But seven rural counties have seen some of the state's fastest early-vote growth since 2022, according to an Axios report cited by Newsweek ¹. They are Swift, Clearwater, Chisago, Renville, Rice, Wadena and Winona ¹.

Early voting ended Monday. Polls open again Tuesday morning and close at 8 p.m. local time, and anyone in line by then may vote ¹.

From Channel GOPOpponent endorsed by Donald TrumpPeggy Flanagan · 1.4K plays · captioned, with the source named

What the candidates are saying

Both candidates urged supporters to turn out on Monday ¹. Flanagan, the state's lieutenant governor, centered her campaign on allegations of corruption tied to Trump ¹. Tafoya has tried to tie Flanagan to controversies during her time serving under Gov. Tim Walz ¹.

Elections here are won by the people who show up.

At the only scheduled debate on October 16, Tafoya said "only one of us let $9 billion walk out the door to fraud." Flanagan answered that Walz "has been very clear that the buck stops with him" ². Trump had endorsed Tafoya earlier that week, and Flanagan said, "Donald Trump doesn't just endorse anybody" ².

Hold Donald Trump accountable for his corruption.

What the experts and markets say

Hamline University political scientist David Schultz told Newsweek that Republicans have "their best shot in 20 years at winning the state." He credited corruption concerns and "Democratic Party fatigue" ¹. He said he would not be surprised if Tafoya won ¹.

Betting markets still favored Flanagan on Monday evening. Kalshi gave her 91.6 percent odds, and Polymarket gave her 94 percent ¹. Those are traders' bets, not votes.

Minnesota last backed a Republican for president in 1972 ¹. Kamala Harris carried it by only about four points in 2024, narrower than Joe Biden's seven-point win in 2020 ¹. Democrats need a net gain of four Senate seats to take control of the chamber ¹.

That matters because a Democratic loss here would make the path to a Senate majority much harder. The pattern is a state that still leans Democratic but keeps narrowing. Tuesday's count will show whether the rural early-vote growth was a real shift.

The Record

1. Nov 8, 2022Minnesota recorded 687,062 early-voting ballots in the last non-presidential election ¹.
2. Nov 5, 2024Kamala Harris carried Minnesota by only about four points ¹.
3. Oct 16, 2026Flanagan and Tafoya met in their only scheduled debate ².
4. Nov 2, 2026Early voting ended in Minnesota, with more than 886,000 early ballots reported as of Sunday ¹.

Free to reprint Republish this story on your site or in your newsletter

Any site, blog or newsletter may run this story free of charge. Keep the credit line and its link to the original, do not sell it, and edit only for length or house style (the full terms). Photos carry their own licenses, noted under each photo on this page, so use the text alone unless a credit says otherwise.

<h2>Minnesota early vote tops 886,000, rising fastest in seven Trump-won rural counties</h2> <p><em>By The GOP Files Campaign Desk. This article first appeared on <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/story/minnesota-early-vote-tops-886-000-rising-fastest-in-seven-trump-won-rural-counties">The GOP Files</a> on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.</em></p> <p>Minnesota&#39;s early voting set a record, and the growth is fastest in seven rural counties that Donald Trump previously won. Newsweek reported that this is a potentially encouraging sign for Republican Michele Tafoya in her Senate race against Democrat Peggy Flanagan . Some analysts warn that early-vote data does not reliably predict which party benefits once every ballot is counted .</p> <p>The open seat belongs to Democratic Sen. Tina Smith, who is retiring when her term ends on January 3 . Minnesota&#39;s Secretary of State&#39;s Office reported that more than 886,000 people had voted early, in person or by absentee ballot, as of Sunday . In 2022, the last non-presidential election, early voting totaled 687,062 ballots .</p> <h2>Where the growth is</h2> <p>Large numbers of ballots came in from Minneapolis and other Democratic areas . But seven rural counties have seen some of the state&#39;s fastest early-vote growth since 2022, according to an Axios report cited by Newsweek . They are Swift, Clearwater, Chisago, Renville, Rice, Wadena and Winona .</p> <p>Early voting ended Monday. Polls open again Tuesday morning and close at 8 p.m. local time, and anyone in line by then may vote .</p> <h2>What the candidates are saying</h2> <p>Both candidates urged supporters to turn out on Monday . Flanagan, the state&#39;s lieutenant governor, centered her campaign on allegations of corruption tied to Trump . Tafoya has tried to tie Flanagan to controversies during her time serving under Gov. Tim Walz .</p> <blockquote><p>Elections here are won by the people who show up.</p><p>&mdash; Michele Tafoya, Republican candidate for U.S. Senate, Minnesota</p></blockquote> <p>At the only scheduled debate on October 16, Tafoya said &quot;only one of us let $9 billion walk out the door to fraud.&quot; Flanagan answered that Walz &quot;has been very clear that the buck stops with him&quot; . Trump had endorsed Tafoya earlier that week, and Flanagan said, &quot;Donald Trump doesn&#39;t just endorse anybody&quot; .</p> <blockquote><p>Hold Donald Trump accountable for his corruption.</p><p>&mdash; Peggy Flanagan, Lieutenant governor and Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate, Minnesota</p></blockquote> <h2>What the experts and markets say</h2> <p>Hamline University political scientist David Schultz told Newsweek that Republicans have &quot;their best shot in 20 years at winning the state.&quot; He credited corruption concerns and &quot;Democratic Party fatigue&quot; . He said he would not be surprised if Tafoya won .</p> <p>Betting markets still favored Flanagan on Monday evening. Kalshi gave her 91.6 percent odds, and Polymarket gave her 94 percent . Those are traders&#39; bets, not votes.</p> <p>Minnesota last backed a Republican for president in 1972 . Kamala Harris carried it by only about four points in 2024, narrower than Joe Biden&#39;s seven-point win in 2020 . Democrats need a net gain of four Senate seats to take control of the chamber .</p> <p>That matters because a Democratic loss here would make the path to a Senate majority much harder. The pattern is a state that still leans Democratic but keeps narrowing. Tuesday&#39;s count will show whether the rural early-vote growth was a real shift.</p> <p><em>Read the original, with every source linked, at <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/story/minnesota-early-vote-tops-886-000-rising-fastest-in-seven-trump-won-rural-counties">thegopfiles.com</a>. Republished under The GOP Files' <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/republish">free republishing terms</a>.</em></p> <img src="https://thegopfiles.com/api/rp/minnesota-early-vote-tops-886-000-rising-fastest-in-seven-trump-won-rural-counties.gif" alt="" width="1" height="1" style="border:0;width:1px;height:1px">

Copy the HTML Paste it into your editor's HTML view. The one-pixel image at the end tells our newsroom the story ran; it stores no reader data.

Sources

1. Newsweek, “Flanagan vs. Tafoya: Early Voting Surges in GOP-Leaning Minnesota Counties” (2026-11-03). newsweek.com/peggy-flanagan-michele-tafoya-minnesota-early-v
2. KTTC, “In only scheduled debate, Flanagan and Tafoya spar over track records and policy positions” (2026-10-16). kttc.com/2026/10/16/only-scheduled-debate-flanagan-tafoya-sp

Found an error? Tell the newsroom. Corrections are noted at the top of the story.