NBC exit poll: 43% cast midterm ballots to oppose Trump, 38% approve of his job

Nearly half of voters said they cast midterm ballots as a rebuke of President Donald Trump, according to early results from the NBC News Exit Poll released Tuesday ¹. Forty-three percent said one reason for their vote was to express opposition to the president, far higher than the share who said the same in the 2018 midterm election during Trump's first term ¹.

The poll found Trump's job approval among voters at 38 percent, down from 45 percent in 2018 ¹. CBS News reported that figure puts Trump on track for the lowest approval rating for a president in a midterm election, lower than George W. Bush's in 2006 when his party lost both houses of Congress ².

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The economy drove the verdict. Seventy-five percent of voters said the nation's economy is in rough shape, and 65 percent said Trump's policies have worsened economic conditions ¹. About half said the cost of living was crucial to their vote ¹. In 2018, 68 percent of voters said the economy was in good shape ¹.

Voters named the economy as the most important issue facing the country at 39 percent, followed by the state of democracy at 32 percent ¹. Nearly half said their finances are worse today than two years ago, when Trump took office; just 18 percent said they are better off ¹.

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Concern about prices was broad. Eighty-seven percent said they were very or somewhat concerned about the cost of gas and diesel, 88 percent about food and groceries, 86 percent about utilities and 85 percent about healthcare ¹. Just under 8 in 10 said inflation is causing hardship for their families ¹.

The disapproval reached Senate battlegrounds. Majorities of Senate voters in Georgia, Ohio, Michigan and Texas said they disapprove of Trump's handling of his job, with those numbers up compared with 2018 ¹. Democrats need to flip four Senate seats and three House seats to take control of Congress, PBS NewsHour reported ³.

Voters were cooler toward both parties than in recent midterms. Fifty-four percent viewed the Democratic Party unfavorably and 46 percent favorably; for the Republican Party, 59 percent unfavorable and 41 percent favorable ¹. Almost 1 in 5 voters said they don't have a favorable opinion of either party, at least 5 points more than in the past two midterms ¹.

On the issues, voters were more likely to say Democrats could better handle the economy, foreign policy, healthcare, government corruption and policies about transgender people; Republicans held an advantage on immigration ¹. The poll also found the share of Latino voters identifying as Democrats ticked up to 43 percent from 39 percent in 2024 ¹.

CBS News reported that roughly six in 10 voters said Trump was a factor in their House vote, driven largely by Democrats motivated by opposition to him ². For Republicans, the president was less of a factor than in 2018, when most Republican voters said their vote was to support Trump ².

Stephanie Perry is the manager of exit polling for NBC News ¹. The poll was conducted as voters left polling locations across the U.S. on Election Day, with results also including extensive interviews by phone, mail and online with people who voted early or by mail ¹.

What happens next

Control of Congress will not be settled until ballots are counted, a process that could take days or, in some cases, weeks, CNBC reported ⁴. If Democrats win one or both chambers, Trump's remaining legislative priorities would be severely kneecapped, and even the basic functions of government could become gridlocked ⁴.

That matters because the exit poll explains the shape of the night: a president at 38 percent approval, a 65 percent verdict that his policies worsened the economy, and a Democratic base voting against him ¹². The pattern is a midterm referendum on the president and prices, not on the opposing party, which voters also viewed unfavorably ¹.

The Record

1. Nov 6, 2018In the 2018 midterms, 45% of voters approved of Trump's performance and 68% said the economy was in good shape ¹.
2. Nov 3, 2026NBC News Exit Poll finds 43% of voters cast ballots partly to oppose Trump and 38% approve of his job performance ¹.
3. Nov 3, 2026CBS News reports Trump is on track for the lowest midterm approval rating for a president, lower than George W. Bush's in 2006 ².
4. Nov 3, 2026PBS NewsHour reports Democrats must flip four Senate seats and three House seats to take control of Congress ³.

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<h2>NBC exit poll: 43% cast midterm ballots to oppose Trump, 38% approve of his job</h2> <p><em>By The GOP Files Campaign Desk. This article first appeared on <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/story/nbc-exit-poll-43-cast-midterm-ballots-to-oppose-trump-38-approve-of-his-job">The GOP Files</a> on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.</em></p> <p>Nearly half of voters said they cast midterm ballots as a rebuke of President Donald Trump, according to early results from the NBC News Exit Poll released Tuesday . Forty-three percent said one reason for their vote was to express opposition to the president, far higher than the share who said the same in the 2018 midterm election during Trump&#39;s first term .</p> <p>The poll found Trump&#39;s job approval among voters at 38 percent, down from 45 percent in 2018 . CBS News reported that figure puts Trump on track for the lowest approval rating for a president in a midterm election, lower than George W. Bush&#39;s in 2006 when his party lost both houses of Congress .</p> <p>The economy drove the verdict. Seventy-five percent of voters said the nation&#39;s economy is in rough shape, and 65 percent said Trump&#39;s policies have worsened economic conditions . About half said the cost of living was crucial to their vote . In 2018, 68 percent of voters said the economy was in good shape .</p> <p>Voters named the economy as the most important issue facing the country at 39 percent, followed by the state of democracy at 32 percent . Nearly half said their finances are worse today than two years ago, when Trump took office; just 18 percent said they are better off .</p> <p>Concern about prices was broad. Eighty-seven percent said they were very or somewhat concerned about the cost of gas and diesel, 88 percent about food and groceries, 86 percent about utilities and 85 percent about healthcare . Just under 8 in 10 said inflation is causing hardship for their families .</p> <p>The disapproval reached Senate battlegrounds. Majorities of Senate voters in Georgia, Ohio, Michigan and Texas said they disapprove of Trump&#39;s handling of his job, with those numbers up compared with 2018 . Democrats need to flip four Senate seats and three House seats to take control of Congress, PBS NewsHour reported .</p> <p>Voters were cooler toward both parties than in recent midterms. Fifty-four percent viewed the Democratic Party unfavorably and 46 percent favorably; for the Republican Party, 59 percent unfavorable and 41 percent favorable . Almost 1 in 5 voters said they don&#39;t have a favorable opinion of either party, at least 5 points more than in the past two midterms .</p> <p>On the issues, voters were more likely to say Democrats could better handle the economy, foreign policy, healthcare, government corruption and policies about transgender people; Republicans held an advantage on immigration . The poll also found the share of Latino voters identifying as Democrats ticked up to 43 percent from 39 percent in 2024 .</p> <p>CBS News reported that roughly six in 10 voters said Trump was a factor in their House vote, driven largely by Democrats motivated by opposition to him . For Republicans, the president was less of a factor than in 2018, when most Republican voters said their vote was to support Trump .</p> <p>Stephanie Perry is the manager of exit polling for NBC News . The poll was conducted as voters left polling locations across the U.S. on Election Day, with results also including extensive interviews by phone, mail and online with people who voted early or by mail .</p> <h2>What happens next</h2> <p>Control of Congress will not be settled until ballots are counted, a process that could take days or, in some cases, weeks, CNBC reported . If Democrats win one or both chambers, Trump&#39;s remaining legislative priorities would be severely kneecapped, and even the basic functions of government could become gridlocked .</p> <p>That matters because the exit poll explains the shape of the night: a president at 38 percent approval, a 65 percent verdict that his policies worsened the economy, and a Democratic base voting against him . The pattern is a midterm referendum on the president and prices, not on the opposing party, which voters also viewed unfavorably .</p> <p><em>Read the original, with every source linked, at <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/story/nbc-exit-poll-43-cast-midterm-ballots-to-oppose-trump-38-approve-of-his-job">thegopfiles.com</a>. Republished under The GOP Files' <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/republish">free republishing terms</a>.</em></p> <img src="https://thegopfiles.com/api/rp/nbc-exit-poll-43-cast-midterm-ballots-to-oppose-trump-38-approve-of-his-job.gif" alt="" width="1" height="1" style="border:0;width:1px;height:1px">

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Sources

1. NBC News, “Nearly half of voters saw midterm election as a rebuke of Trump, NBC News Exit Poll shows” (2026-11-03). nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/exit-poll-trump-midterms-
2. CBS News, “See CBS News exit poll results for the 2026 midterm elections” (2026-11-03). cbsnews.com/news/cbs-news-exit-polls-midterm-elections-2026/
3. PBS NewsHour, “Live Updates: Midterm voters go to the polls on Election Day” (2026-11-03). pbs.org/newshour/politics/live-updates-midterm-voters-go-to-
4. CNBC, “What the 2026 midterm elections could mean for Trump’s final two years” (2026-11-03). cnbc.com/2026/11/03/midterm-elections-congress-trump-democra

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