Polls favor El-Sayed in Michigan Senate race as Marist shows tight contest

Recent independent polls point toward Democrat Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan's U.S. Senate race, though they are only snapshots ²³⁴.

What the public polls show

A Mitchell Research poll for CBS Detroit, taken Oct. 26-27 among 636 likely voters, had El-Sayed at 51% and Rogers at 44%. Its margin of error was 3.9 points ².

On tapeCBS News · Oct 29

▶2:18

A Glengariff Group poll for The Detroit News and WDIV-TV, taken Oct. 19-22 among 600 likely voters, had El-Sayed at 51.4% and Rogers at 45.1%. Its margin of error was 4 points ³.

Among voters who said they will "definitely" vote, that Glengariff lead narrowed to 4.2 points. Rogers led among voters 65 and older, at about 54% ³.

From Channel GOPEl-Sayed lists Mike Rogers' corporate donorsAbdul El-Sayed · 146 plays · captioned, with the source named

The race is not a runaway in every survey. A Marist poll taken Oct. 15-18 found El-Sayed ahead 50% to 48% among likely voters. That two-point gap is within its margin of error of 4.3 points ⁴.

Early voting adds a wrinkle

The Mitchell poll found that 28% of respondents said they had already voted or were voting absentee. That was up from 11% earlier in October ². Poll answers about who has voted are not the same as the state's actual ballot counts.

On tapeThe Hill · Oct 23

▶2:56

Pollster Richard Czuba of Glengariff said of the race: "This is all about Donald Trump." He also said it was the first time he had seen El-Sayed ahead among independents ³.

El-Sayed told reporters his opponent did not want to discuss policy:

Mike Rogers doesn't want to talk about the policies that he has to answer for with Daddy Trump

What happens next

Michigan votes Tuesday, Nov. 3. Early ballots sent by mail are counted along with the rest, so the actual returns will settle the question.

That matters because campaigns often release upbeat internal numbers in the final days to energize their own voters. The pattern is common in both parties. Readers should weigh claims that cannot be checked against polls that disclose their samples and error margins.

The Record

1. Oct 18, 2026Marist poll (taken Oct. 15-18) finds El-Sayed ahead of Rogers 50% to 48% among likely Michigan voters ⁴.
2. Oct 22, 2026Glengariff poll (taken Oct. 19-22) finds El-Sayed 51.4%, Rogers 45.1% ³.
3. Oct 28, 2026Mitchell Research poll (taken Oct. 26-27) has El-Sayed 51%, Rogers 44% ².

Free to reprint Republish this story on your site or in your newsletter

Any site, blog or newsletter may run this story free of charge. Keep the credit line and its link to the original, do not sell it, and edit only for length or house style (the full terms). Photos carry their own licenses, noted under each photo on this page, so use the text alone unless a credit says otherwise.

<h2>Polls favor El-Sayed in Michigan Senate race as Marist shows tight contest</h2> <p><em>By The GOP Files Campaign Desk. This article first appeared on <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/story/polls-favor-el-sayed-in-michigan-senate-race-as-marist-shows-tight-contest">The GOP Files</a> on Saturday, October 31, 2026.</em></p> <p>Recent independent polls point toward Democrat Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan&#39;s U.S. Senate race, though they are only snapshots .</p> <h2>What the public polls show</h2> <p>A Mitchell Research poll for CBS Detroit, taken Oct. 26-27 among 636 likely voters, had El-Sayed at 51% and Rogers at 44%. Its margin of error was 3.9 points .</p> <p>A Glengariff Group poll for The Detroit News and WDIV-TV, taken Oct. 19-22 among 600 likely voters, had El-Sayed at 51.4% and Rogers at 45.1%. Its margin of error was 4 points .</p> <p>Among voters who said they will &quot;definitely&quot; vote, that Glengariff lead narrowed to 4.2 points. Rogers led among voters 65 and older, at about 54% .</p> <p>The race is not a runaway in every survey. A Marist poll taken Oct. 15-18 found El-Sayed ahead 50% to 48% among likely voters. That two-point gap is within its margin of error of 4.3 points .</p> <h2>Early voting adds a wrinkle</h2> <p>The Mitchell poll found that 28% of respondents said they had already voted or were voting absentee. That was up from 11% earlier in October . Poll answers about who has voted are not the same as the state&#39;s actual ballot counts.</p> <p>Pollster Richard Czuba of Glengariff said of the race: &quot;This is all about Donald Trump.&quot; He also said it was the first time he had seen El-Sayed ahead among independents .</p> <p>El-Sayed told reporters his opponent did not want to discuss policy:</p> <blockquote><p>Mike Rogers doesn&#39;t want to talk about the policies that he has to answer for with Daddy Trump</p><p>&mdash; Abdul El-Sayed, Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate, Michigan</p></blockquote> <h2>What happens next</h2> <p>Michigan votes Tuesday, Nov. 3. Early ballots sent by mail are counted along with the rest, so the actual returns will settle the question.</p> <p>That matters because campaigns often release upbeat internal numbers in the final days to energize their own voters. The pattern is common in both parties. Readers should weigh claims that cannot be checked against polls that disclose their samples and error margins.</p> <p><em>Read the original, with every source linked, at <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/story/polls-favor-el-sayed-in-michigan-senate-race-as-marist-shows-tight-contest">thegopfiles.com</a>. Republished under The GOP Files' <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/republish">free republishing terms</a>.</em></p> <img src="https://thegopfiles.com/api/rp/polls-favor-el-sayed-in-michigan-senate-race-as-marist-shows-tight-contest.gif" alt="" width="1" height="1" style="border:0;width:1px;height:1px">

Copy the HTML Paste it into your editor's HTML view. The one-pixel image at the end tells our newsroom the story ran; it stores no reader data.

Sources

1. Fox News, “2026 midterms live updates: Battle for control of Congress heats up” (2026-10-30). foxnews.com/live-news/4-days-to-go-battle-for-control-of-con
2. CBS Detroit, “Abdul El-Sayed widens lead over Mike Rogers to 7 points in newest Michigan Senate poll” (2026-10-28). cbsnews.com/detroit/news/el-sayed-widens-lead-rogers-michiga
3. Yahoo News, “El-Sayed leads Rogers in final days of Michigan Senate race, poll shows” (2026-10-27). yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/el-sayed-leads-rogers-final
4. Marist Poll, “Midterm Elections in Michigan, October 2026” (2026-10-21). maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/midterm-elections-in-michigan-oc
5. FOX 11, “Poll: El-Sayed leading Rogers by comfortable margin in Michigan's Senate race” (2026-09-22). fox11online.com/news/nation-world/poll-democrat-abdul-el-say

Found an error? Tell the newsroom. Corrections are noted at the top of the story.