U.S. adds 165,000 jobs in October, beating forecasts, but pay still trails prices

The U.S. economy added 165,000 jobs in October, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported Friday. The unemployment rate edged down to 4.1 percent ¹. NBC News called the result a surprise that "far outpaced expectations" ².

Analysts had forecast about 65,000 new jobs, a total considered weak by recent standards, Newsweek reported ³. Employment grew in professional and business services, health care, and transportation and warehousing ³.

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Earlier months revised up

The BLS also raised its estimates for the two previous months. August is now put at 186,000 jobs, up from 133,000. September is now 60,000, up from 29,000 ¹. Together the revisions add 84,000 jobs ³.

Unemployment has stayed below 5 percent for more than five years ¹. Apollo Global Management chief economist Torsten Slok noted it had held there for 61 straight months through September ².

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Paychecks still behind prices

Average hourly earnings rose 14 cents from September to $38. That is 3.1 percent higher than a year earlier ¹. NBC News reported that is better than expected but still well below inflation, as it has been since March ².

Inflation was 3.7 percent in September, measured by the consumer price index (CPI), which tracks what households pay for goods and services. It was the seventh straight month above 3 percent. The Hill linked the pressure to higher fuel prices during the Iran war ¹.

Erin McLaughlin, a senior economist at the Conference Board, said the economy is close to full employment. "Almost anyone that wants a job has a job," she said ¹. She added that workers are not necessarily happy about it, because wages may not be keeping up with inflation ¹.

The problem is the low rate of turnover

What comes next

The BLS releases October's CPI report on Tuesday. The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland projects prices up 3.7 percent from a year earlier ¹. NBC News reported that business inflation is rising even faster, a likely sign of what is coming for shoppers at grocery and retail stores ².

The Fed raised interest rates in September, its first hike since the summer of 2023. Officials held rates at 3.75 to 4 percent last week ¹. As of Friday, traders put the odds of another quarter-point hike at the early December meeting at 73 percent, according to the CME FedWatch tool ¹.

Slow hiring turnover is a concern. KPMG chief economist Diane Swonk said "fewer people are entering the labor force" ².

The report is the first major economic release since the midterms, when Democrats won the House and Senate. The Hill said voters punished Republicans and President Trump for the high cost of living ¹. Newsweek said the numbers could inform talks over Democrats' "Affordability Agenda" ³.

That matters because a strong jobs report does not make groceries or gas cheaper. The pattern is that employers keep hiring while pay lags prices, which hurts people on fixed budgets most.

The Record

1. Oct 14, 2026The most recent consumer price index, released before Friday's jobs report, showed inflation at 3.7% ².
2. Nov 3, 2026Democrats flipped the Senate and House in the midterm elections ¹.
3. Nov 6, 2026BLS reports 165,000 jobs added in October and unemployment at 4.1% ¹²³.

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<h2>U.S. adds 165,000 jobs in October, beating forecasts, but pay still trails prices</h2> <p><em>By The GOP Files Kitchen-Table Desk. This article first appeared on <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/story/u-s-adds-165-000-jobs-in-october-beating-forecasts-but-pay-still-trails-prices">The GOP Files</a> on Friday, November 6, 2026.</em></p> <p>The U.S. economy added 165,000 jobs in October, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported Friday. The unemployment rate edged down to 4.1 percent . NBC News called the result a surprise that &quot;far outpaced expectations&quot; .</p> <p>Analysts had forecast about 65,000 new jobs, a total considered weak by recent standards, Newsweek reported . Employment grew in professional and business services, health care, and transportation and warehousing .</p> <h2>Earlier months revised up</h2> <p>The BLS also raised its estimates for the two previous months. August is now put at 186,000 jobs, up from 133,000. September is now 60,000, up from 29,000 . Together the revisions add 84,000 jobs .</p> <p>Unemployment has stayed below 5 percent for more than five years . Apollo Global Management chief economist Torsten Slok noted it had held there for 61 straight months through September .</p> <h2>Paychecks still behind prices</h2> <p>Average hourly earnings rose 14 cents from September to $38. That is 3.1 percent higher than a year earlier . NBC News reported that is better than expected but still well below inflation, as it has been since March .</p> <p>Inflation was 3.7 percent in September, measured by the consumer price index (CPI), which tracks what households pay for goods and services. It was the seventh straight month above 3 percent. The Hill linked the pressure to higher fuel prices during the Iran war .</p> <p>Erin McLaughlin, a senior economist at the Conference Board, said the economy is close to full employment. &quot;Almost anyone that wants a job has a job,&quot; she said . She added that workers are not necessarily happy about it, because wages may not be keeping up with inflation .</p> <blockquote><p>The problem is the low rate of turnover</p><p>&mdash; Diane Swonk, chief economist, KPMG</p></blockquote> <h2>What comes next</h2> <p>The BLS releases October&#39;s CPI report on Tuesday. The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland projects prices up 3.7 percent from a year earlier . NBC News reported that business inflation is rising even faster, a likely sign of what is coming for shoppers at grocery and retail stores .</p> <p>The Fed raised interest rates in September, its first hike since the summer of 2023. Officials held rates at 3.75 to 4 percent last week . As of Friday, traders put the odds of another quarter-point hike at the early December meeting at 73 percent, according to the CME FedWatch tool .</p> <p>Slow hiring turnover is a concern. KPMG chief economist Diane Swonk said &quot;fewer people are entering the labor force&quot; .</p> <p>The report is the first major economic release since the midterms, when Democrats won the House and Senate. The Hill said voters punished Republicans and President Trump for the high cost of living . Newsweek said the numbers could inform talks over Democrats&#39; &quot;Affordability Agenda&quot; .</p> <p>That matters because a strong jobs report does not make groceries or gas cheaper. The pattern is that employers keep hiring while pay lags prices, which hurts people on fixed budgets most.</p> <p><em>Read the original, with every source linked, at <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/story/u-s-adds-165-000-jobs-in-october-beating-forecasts-but-pay-still-trails-prices">thegopfiles.com</a>. Republished under The GOP Files' <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/republish">free republishing terms</a>.</em></p> <img src="https://thegopfiles.com/api/rp/u-s-adds-165-000-jobs-in-october-beating-forecasts-but-pay-still-trails-prices.gif" alt="" width="1" height="1" style="border:0;width:1px;height:1px">

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Sources

1. The Hill, “US economy added 165,000 jobs in October, beating expectations” (2026-11-06). thehill.com/business/6201764-us-jobs-report-october/
2. NBC News, “The U.S. added 165,000 jobs in October, a bright spot for the economy” (2026-11-06). nbcnews.com/business/economy/us-added-jobs-october-risks-sta
3. Newsweek, “Trump Gets Major Jobs Report Boost After Midterms Rattle Markets” (2026-11-06). newsweek.com/trump-gets-major-jobs-report-boost-after-midter

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