Johnson was 'absolutely convinced' the GOP would grow its House majority. Now he blames history

Late Tuesday night, House Speaker Mike Johnson, a Louisiana Republican, told supporters his party looked set to lose its House majority. Republicans, he said, "would have to defy more than a century of midterm history" to hold on, and "It looks like history will be kept." ¹

Both CBS News and NBC News projected that Democrats will win control of the House ³². NBC's analysis put Democrats at about 252 seats, well above the 218 needed for a majority ². Just before midnight Eastern time, NBC's Decision Desk projected that Democrats had flipped 20 House seats and Republicans had flipped none ².

On tapeForbes Breaking News · Nov 4

▶14:47

For more than a year, the speaker described that same history very differently. Here is what he said then, and what he says now.

Then: 'Not groundless optimism'

In July 2025, Johnson told CBS News chief Washington correspondent Major Garrett that he was sure Republicans would add seats in 2026 ⁵. He said the gains would come from hard work, not wishful thinking ⁵.

From Channel GOPJeffries: Trump lied about who deportations would targetHakeem Jeffries · 51 plays · captioned, with the source named

I am very bullish on election night '26. I'm absolutely convinced we're going to grow the House majority.

Johnson told CBS that "It's not groundless optimism." He compared Democratic seats in districts Trump won with Republican seats in districts Kamala Harris won and said, "I like those odds." ⁵

He also said voters would reward Republicans for the tax provisions in the "Big, Beautiful Bill": "They'll see it, and they will vote accordingly." ⁵ That law extended trillions of dollars in tax cuts and "adds or expands work requirements for Medicaid and food stamps," CBS reported ⁵. At the time, a CBS News poll found 61% of U.S. adults disapproved of the law ⁵.

On tapeABC News · Nov 4

▶14:39

Then: 'The polling is wrong'

As the election got closer and polls showed Democrats ahead, Johnson went after the polls. On Fox News Channel's "America's Newsroom" on Oct. 13, he said Republicans did not want to respond to polls anymore ⁶.

I'm telling you, the polling is wrong.

He kept saying it. In late October, he told Fox News, "I'm telling you these polls are off — all of them," according to a review of his comments by MS NOW columnist Steve Benen ⁷. CBS News reported that Johnson's closing message was that the polls were wrong ³.

Now: 'History will be kept'

Tuesday night, the history Johnson had once said Republicans would beat became his explanation for losing. "It's only happened twice in 90 years that a sitting president has picked up or held seats for his party in that first two-year cycle," he told supporters ¹.

It looks like history will be kept.

Johnson said he had led "almost 500 individual campaign events across 36 states," and the Washington Examiner reported he raised more than $526 million for the cycle ¹. He called being the 56th speaker "the honor of my life" and promised that "come 2028, we will take back the House." ¹ A senior GOP leadership aide gave the Examiner a blunter assessment, calling the results a "disaster" and "worse than" Republicans had expected ¹.

That matters because the record Johnson now points to was there all along. The odds against a president's party in a midterm did not change between July 2025 and Tuesday night. What changed is that the votes were counted.

The voters' verdict

The "2024 feeling" Johnson described did not show up in the results. Early exit polls put President Trump's approval at 38%, which CBS described as the lowest for a president in a midterm election in its comparison ⁴. About six in 10 voters said Trump was a factor in their House vote ⁴.

Several Republican incumbents lost, CBS projected, including Rep. Scott Perry in Pennsylvania's 10th District, Rep. Tom Kean Jr. in New Jersey's 7th and Rep. Jen Kiggans in Virginia's 2nd ⁴. The Examiner also reported Republican losses in Florida seats that had been redrawn to favor the GOP ¹.

Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York, who is expected to become the next speaker, said in his victory speech that "America is back." ²

Jeffries called it a "change election" and said, "we need to deliver dramatic change." ² Former Speaker Nancy Pelosi backed him for the job: "With tremendous personal pride, I congratulate our next Speaker, Hakeem Jeffries." ³

What comes next for Johnson

Johnson's own future is unclear ¹. Asked whether Johnson should keep leading House Republicans, Trump said, "I think he's done a very good job," but did not fully endorse him, adding, "they're going to have to make that decision." ³

Trump took his own turn at explaining the loss. On his social media site, Truth Social, he wrote that "we would have won in a landslide!" ³ He later told Fox News he was "a little bit surprised" and "thought we'd do better," and he said on Politico's livestream that "We'll work with the Democrats." ³

Johnson ended the night with a warning. "If they make the next two years about retribution and lawfare and partisan games, every American will suffer by that," he said ⁴.

The pattern is the same one voters have seen before. The confident prediction comes first and the explanation comes after. The tape shows both.

The Record

1. Jul 24, 2025Johnson tells CBS News he is 'absolutely convinced' Republicans will grow their House majority in 2026 ⁵
2. Oct 13, 2026On Fox News, Johnson says 'the polling is wrong' and that the race 'feels like 2024' ⁶
3. Oct 28, 2026MS NOW reports Johnson telling Fox News 'these polls are off — all of them' ⁷
4. Nov 3, 2026CBS and NBC project Democrats win the House; Johnson says 'It looks like history will be kept' ¹²³

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<h2>Johnson was &#39;absolutely convinced&#39; the GOP would grow its House majority. Now he blames history</h2> <p><em>By The GOP Files Receipts Desk. This article first appeared on <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/story/johnson-was-absolutely-convinced-the-gop-would-grow-its-house-majority-now-he-blames">The GOP Files</a> on Wednesday, November 4, 2026.</em></p> <p>Late Tuesday night, House Speaker Mike Johnson, a Louisiana Republican, told supporters his party looked set to lose its House majority. Republicans, he said, &quot;would have to defy more than a century of midterm history&quot; to hold on, and &quot;It looks like history will be kept.&quot;</p> <p>Both CBS News and NBC News projected that Democrats will win control of the House . NBC&#39;s analysis put Democrats at about 252 seats, well above the 218 needed for a majority . Just before midnight Eastern time, NBC&#39;s Decision Desk projected that Democrats had flipped 20 House seats and Republicans had flipped none .</p> <p>For more than a year, the speaker described that same history very differently. Here is what he said then, and what he says now.</p> <h2>Then: &#39;Not groundless optimism&#39;</h2> <p>In July 2025, Johnson told CBS News chief Washington correspondent Major Garrett that he was sure Republicans would add seats in 2026 . He said the gains would come from hard work, not wishful thinking .</p> <blockquote><p>I am very bullish on election night &#39;26. I&#39;m absolutely convinced we&#39;re going to grow the House majority.</p><p>&mdash; Mike Johnson, Speaker of the House, R-La.</p></blockquote> <p>Johnson told CBS that &quot;It&#39;s not groundless optimism.&quot; He compared Democratic seats in districts Trump won with Republican seats in districts Kamala Harris won and said, &quot;I like those odds.&quot;</p> <p>He also said voters would reward Republicans for the tax provisions in the &quot;Big, Beautiful Bill&quot;: &quot;They&#39;ll see it, and they will vote accordingly.&quot; That law extended trillions of dollars in tax cuts and &quot;adds or expands work requirements for Medicaid and food stamps,&quot; CBS reported . At the time, a CBS News poll found 61% of U.S. adults disapproved of the law .</p> <h2>Then: &#39;The polling is wrong&#39;</h2> <p>As the election got closer and polls showed Democrats ahead, Johnson went after the polls. On Fox News Channel&#39;s &quot;America&#39;s Newsroom&quot; on Oct. 13, he said Republicans did not want to respond to polls anymore .</p> <blockquote><p>I&#39;m telling you, the polling is wrong.</p><p>&mdash; Mike Johnson, Speaker of the House, R-La.</p></blockquote> <p>He kept saying it. In late October, he told Fox News, &quot;I&#39;m telling you these polls are off — all of them,&quot; according to a review of his comments by MS NOW columnist Steve Benen . CBS News reported that Johnson&#39;s closing message was that the polls were wrong .</p> <h2>Now: &#39;History will be kept&#39;</h2> <p>Tuesday night, the history Johnson had once said Republicans would beat became his explanation for losing. &quot;It&#39;s only happened twice in 90 years that a sitting president has picked up or held seats for his party in that first two-year cycle,&quot; he told supporters .</p> <blockquote><p>It looks like history will be kept.</p><p>&mdash; Mike Johnson, Speaker of the House, R-La.</p></blockquote> <p>Johnson said he had led &quot;almost 500 individual campaign events across 36 states,&quot; and the Washington Examiner reported he raised more than $526 million for the cycle . He called being the 56th speaker &quot;the honor of my life&quot; and promised that &quot;come 2028, we will take back the House.&quot; A senior GOP leadership aide gave the Examiner a blunter assessment, calling the results a &quot;disaster&quot; and &quot;worse than&quot; Republicans had expected .</p> <p>That matters because the record Johnson now points to was there all along. The odds against a president&#39;s party in a midterm did not change between July 2025 and Tuesday night. What changed is that the votes were counted.</p> <h2>The voters&#39; verdict</h2> <p>The &quot;2024 feeling&quot; Johnson described did not show up in the results. Early exit polls put President Trump&#39;s approval at 38%, which CBS described as the lowest for a president in a midterm election in its comparison . About six in 10 voters said Trump was a factor in their House vote .</p> <p>Several Republican incumbents lost, CBS projected, including Rep. Scott Perry in Pennsylvania&#39;s 10th District, Rep. Tom Kean Jr. in New Jersey&#39;s 7th and Rep. Jen Kiggans in Virginia&#39;s 2nd . The Examiner also reported Republican losses in Florida seats that had been redrawn to favor the GOP .</p> <p>Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York, who is expected to become the next speaker, said in his victory speech that &quot;America is back.&quot;</p> <p>Jeffries called it a &quot;change election&quot; and said, &quot;we need to deliver dramatic change.&quot; Former Speaker Nancy Pelosi backed him for the job: &quot;With tremendous personal pride, I congratulate our next Speaker, Hakeem Jeffries.&quot;</p> <h2>What comes next for Johnson</h2> <p>Johnson&#39;s own future is unclear . Asked whether Johnson should keep leading House Republicans, Trump said, &quot;I think he&#39;s done a very good job,&quot; but did not fully endorse him, adding, &quot;they&#39;re going to have to make that decision.&quot;</p> <p>Trump took his own turn at explaining the loss. On his social media site, Truth Social, he wrote that &quot;we would have won in a landslide!&quot; He later told Fox News he was &quot;a little bit surprised&quot; and &quot;thought we&#39;d do better,&quot; and he said on Politico&#39;s livestream that &quot;We&#39;ll work with the Democrats.&quot;</p> <p>Johnson ended the night with a warning. &quot;If they make the next two years about retribution and lawfare and partisan games, every American will suffer by that,&quot; he said .</p> <p>The pattern is the same one voters have seen before. The confident prediction comes first and the explanation comes after. The tape shows both.</p> <p><em>Read the original, with every source linked, at <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/story/johnson-was-absolutely-convinced-the-gop-would-grow-its-house-majority-now-he-blames">thegopfiles.com</a>. Republished under The GOP Files' <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/republish">free republishing terms</a>.</em></p> <img src="https://thegopfiles.com/api/rp/johnson-was-absolutely-convinced-the-gop-would-grow-its-house-majority-now-he-blames.gif" alt="" width="1" height="1" style="border:0;width:1px;height:1px">

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Sources

1. Washington Examiner, “Mike Johnson says it 'looks like history will be kept' for Republicans losing House majority” (2026-11-03). washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/congressional/4791174/
2. NBC News, “Election results 2026 live updates: Democrats win both Senate and House” (2026-11-04). nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/live-blog/midterm-electio
3. CBS News, “Live election results for the 2026 midterms as Democrats win House and Senate control” (2026-11-04). cbsnews.com/live-updates/election-day-2026-midterms/
4. CBS News, “2026 House election live results as Democrats win House majority with Trump approval at historic low” (2026-11-04). cbsnews.com/live-updates/house-election-results-2026/
5. CBS News, “House Speaker Mike Johnson 'very bullish' on GOP in midterms” (2025-07-24). cbsnews.com/news/house-speaker-mike-johnson-very-bullish-on-
6. Breitbart (Fox News clip), “Speaker Johnson: 'I'm Telling You, the Polling Is Wrong'” (2026-10-13). breitbart.com/clips/2026/10/13/speaker-johnson-im-telling-yo
7. MS NOW, “Mike Johnson says the polls are wrong. His own party doesn't appear to agree.” (2026-10-28). ms.now/rachel-maddow-show/maddowblog/speaker-mike-johnson-po

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