Your Money · Report · File No. 261103-468
Trump says oil is 'dropping like a rock' as Don Jr. admits gas prices are high
On the eve of the midterms, the president touted a drop in oil prices while his son told a New York rally that gas prices are high. Pump prices are still above $4 a gallon, and analysts warn the oil drop could reverse.
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President Donald Trump and his son Donald Trump Jr. gave different pictures of fuel costs on Monday, one day before the midterm elections. The president posted on Truth Social that oil prices were falling fast. His son told a crowd in New York that gas prices are high. 1
Trump Jr. spoke at a rally with Vice President JD Vance. He then asked the crowd whether they thought prices would fall if Democrats win and "stop all the drilling." 1
I get it, not everything's perfect today, gas prices are high, we understand that.
What the numbers show
The president tied the oil drop to the war with Iran. He wrote that oil was down almost $10 a barrel because people feel there will not be a war, and that Iran wants a settlement. 1
Iran wants a settlement, as soon as possible. It could happen!
Oil did fall on Monday. Brent crude, the international benchmark, fell 7.6% to settle at $104.77 a barrel. U.S. crude fell 7.4% to $96.46, its biggest one-day loss since July 27, as U.S. and Iranian leaders both signaled openness to a diplomatic end to the conflict. 2
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Gasoline is still expensive. AAA, the auto club, put the national average for a gallon of regular at $4.1694 on Monday. That was down from $4.2858 a week earlier and $4.3961 a month earlier. 1
States with above-average prices include Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, Pennsylvania, New York, Maine, Alaska and California. 1 Many of them have close races on Tuesday's ballot.
A White House promise, and a warning
White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers told Newsweek that once the conflict ends, "gas prices will drop drastically." She also said more oil is now flowing out of the Persian Gulf than before the war began. 1
Markets are not sure that will happen. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Trump "hasn't made a decision" on striking Iran again. Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, called Saturday for a "geographically unrestricted" response to any threat. 2
Ryan McKay of TD Securities, a financial firm, said he does not expect the extra price that markets add for war risk to disappear on diplomacy headlines alone. Oil had risen more than 10% in October on fears of escalation after the election. 2
Why it matters
That matters because gas is a bill people cannot skip, especially on a fixed income. A YouGov survey of 3,915 likely voters, taken Oct. 27 to 30, found 41% said gas prices where they live are rising a lot and 25% said a little. Only 1% said prices were falling a lot. The margin of error was 1.7 percentage points. 1
Newsweek reported that Trump's approval rating and his marks on the economy and on the Iran war have slipped as households flag affordability worries. 1 The pattern is plain. The president says relief is coming, while his own son tells voters prices are high today.
What happens next depends on whether talks with Iran hold. Pump prices usually lag crude oil, so any relief at the pump would take time, and a renewed strike could send oil back up. 2
The Record
- AAA's national average for regular gas was $4.3961 a gallon, about a month before Monday's report 1
- AAA's national average fell to $4.1694 a gallon, while Brent crude settled at $104.77 after a 7.6% drop 12
- Trump posted that oil was falling because people feel there will not be a war with Iran; Trump Jr. said gas prices are high 1
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Sources
- Newsweek, “Trump Says Oil Prices Dropping as Don Jr. Concedes Gas Prices Are 'High'” (2026-11-03). newsweek.com/trump-says-oil-prices-dropping-as-don-jr-conced
- CNBC, “Crude oil prices sell off more than 7% on Iran peace talk hopes ahead of U.S. midterms” (2026-11-02). cnbc.com/2026/11/02/oil-prices-fall-as-iran-us-pursue-diplom
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