Social Security & Medicare · Analysis · File No. 261104-447
Five Democrats who won Senate seats ran on lifting Social Security's tax cap
Senators-elect Turek, Jackson, El-Sayed, Brown and Talarico told voters the wealthy should pay Social Security tax on more of their pay. Social Security's retirement fund is projected to run short at the end of 2032, so the new Senate's views on paying for it now matter.
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Five Democrats won U.S. Senate races on Tuesday after telling voters during their campaigns that high earners should pay Social Security tax on more of their pay. Josh Turek in Iowa, Troy Jackson in Maine, Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan and James Talarico in Texas all backed raising or ending the program's tax cap, according to a CNBC review of nine battleground races 12.
Four of the five took seats from Republicans. Turek beat Republican Ashley Hinson. Jackson ended Susan Collins's roughly 30-year Senate career. Brown beat Sen. Jon Husted, and Talarico beat Ken Paxton. El-Sayed beat Republican Mike Rogers and kept Michigan's seat in Democratic hands 2. Early Wednesday, the Associated Press tracker showed Democrats with 54 seats and Republicans with 44. Mississippi and Alaska were still uncalled 2.
What the tax cap is
Workers and employers each pay a 6.2% Social Security tax on wages, but only up to a ceiling. The ceiling is $184,500 this year and rises to $192,300 in January. That means the most a worker can pay in 2027 is $11,922.60 5. Pay above the ceiling is not taxed for Social Security.
Sen. Bernie Sanders, the Vermont independent, has pointed out that SpaceX CEO Elon Musk pays the same amount into the program as someone earning $184,500 a year 7.
From Channel GOPEl-Sayed: Medicaid cuts timed for after midtermsAbdul El-Sayed · 150 plays · captioned, with the source named
One of the best ways to keep Social Security solvent is we have to remove the cap
Turek said that at a Sept. 9 town hall 1. Jackson's campaign said he would "scrap the cap and require the wealthy to pay Social Security taxes on their whole income" 1. El-Sayed said at an Oct. 8 debate that "It's only fair that the rich should pay their fair share" 1.
Why it matters now
Social Security's trustees reported in June that the program's main retirement trust fund will run short at the end of 2032. Unless Congress acts, Social Security could then pay only 78% of scheduled benefits, a 22% cut 4. An analysis by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a budget watchdog group, put the cut at about $500 a month, or 24% for a typical benefit 4.
That date used to be 2033. It moved up to the end of 2032 last August, and the agency said the change came from the Republican tax law known as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, because of how it affects the taxation of benefits 4. Medicare's hospital insurance trust fund, which pays for hospital stays, is projected to fall short of full benefits in the second quarter of 2033 4.
That matters because any fix that doesn't cut benefits needs new money. The Senate that will vote on a fix now has more members who have publicly said where that money should come from.
The Republicans in these races mostly took a different approach. CNBC found no clear position on the tax cap from Hinson or Rogers, or from Nebraska Sen. Pete Ricketts, who won reelection 12.
Collins said in a debate that the cap should be "adjusted" 1. In Nebraska, Ricketts, who has introduced a bill to cut taxes on benefits, beat independent Dan Osborn, who wanted to remove the cap 12.
What a Democratic Congress can and cannot do
Any bill still needs President Trump's signature. Late last month, reporters asked how he would work with a Democratic Congress, and he said this 6:
What happens is I veto everything, and then the Democrats come and they want to make a deal.
A commission is another possible path. A bipartisan Senate proposal called the PROMISE Act would have the Social Security Advisory Board, an appointed panel, recommend ways to keep the program paying full benefits for 50 years 7. In August, Sanders said it was "absurd, anti-democratic and unacceptable" to decide Social Security's future so close to the midterm elections 7. He urged fellow Democrats to say clearly that they would not support cutting benefits or raising the retirement age 7. AARP also objected to giving the job to "an unelected board" 7.
The pattern is clear. Republican candidates promised to protect benefits but mostly did not say how they would close the gap. Most of the Democrats who won these battleground seats did say how: ask the highest earners to pay more. Max Richtman, who leads the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare, said in June that "It would be grossly unfair to ask beneficiaries on fixed incomes to bear the cost of strengthening Social Security" 4.
For now, your check does not change. The 3.6% cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, raises the average retirement benefit by about $75, to about $2,170 a month, starting in January 8.
The Record
- Trustees project Social Security's retirement trust fund will run short at the end of 2032, triggering a 22% benefit cut without action 4
- Social Security's taxable wage cap is set to rise from $184,500 to $192,300 for 2027 5
- CQ-Roll Call reports Trump said he would 'veto everything' if Democrats won Congress 6
- Democrats clinch Senate control; Turek, Jackson, Brown and Talarico flip seats and El-Sayed wins Michigan 2
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Sources
- CNBC, “These Senate races may help determine the fate of Social Security” (2026-11-01). cnbc.com/2026/11/01/social-security-senate-races.html
- Yahoo News, “Midterms 2026 election results and live updates: Democrats win Senate and House, taking control of Congress from Republicans” (2026-11-04). yahoo.com/news/politics/live/midterms-2026-live-updates-elec
- Reuters (via Investing.com), “Hakeem Jeffries poised to become speaker of US House of Representatives” (2026-11-04). investing.com/news/economy-news/hakeem-jeffries-poised-to-be
- CBS News, “Social Security's insolvency date is projected for end of 2032” (2026-06-10). cbsnews.com/news/social-security-trust-fund-insolvency-2032-
- Journal of Accountancy, “Social Security wage base and COLA announced for 2027” (2026-10-14). journalofaccountancy.com/news/2026/oct/social-security-wage-
- Honolulu Star-Advertiser (CQ-Roll Call), “Trump's 'veto everything' threat puts funding, debt limit in spotlight” (2026-10-26). staradvertiser.com/2026/10/26/breaking-news/trumps-veto-ever
- The Hill (via Yahoo News), “Sanders warns Democrats: Any effort to fast-track Social Security changes would undercut party trust” (2026-08-04). yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/sanders-warns-democrats-eff
- CBS News, “Social Security announces cost-of-living increase for 2027” (2026-10-14). cbsnews.com/news/social-security-cola-2027-increase/
Found an error? Tell the newsroom. Corrections are noted at the top of the story.
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